NVAX Update (Responding to Some Requests)I wrote this in response to a comment on a previous update, but I'm publishing this here because some others have requested an update as well.
Remember: I'm just some dude on the internet and I'm not a financial advisor. So please keep that in mind.
For me, personally, NVAX is a patience game. I have no idea on timing.
Structurally, I think the NVAX chart looks great. But, in my experience, a few other things need to fall in line before NVAX can take its next big leg up. Historically, NVAX needs a "risk-on" environment in equities in order to expand.
(1) I think we'll need to see expansion in the Russell 2000. So far, the S&P 500 has expanded and the DOW has expanded, but the Russell 2000 has not. Also: the expansions in the S&P and the DOW have largely been consolidated into the largest companies in those indexes. Expansion in the Russell 2000 will signal a more "risk-on" environment in equities, which is one of the necessary (if not sufficient) conditions for NVAX to send upward.
(2) I think we'd also like to see the DXY break down below 106 and stay there for a while. In my experience, "risk-on" doesn't generally happen when the DXY is above 106. (NOTE: Since I wrote this, the DXY has broken down below 104, which is a good sign in my humble opinion. I'd like to see it continue breaking down and stay down for a while.)
(3) Gold is still really high. This is another indication that "risk-off" is prevailing in equities. In my experience, the Gold price will need to break down from these highs to indicate a "risk-on" environment.
So, again, I think the structure of the NVAX chart looks great. I personally believe the bottom has long been in, we've seen textbook Wyckoff accumulation and then a textbook reaccumulation. Now, for me, it's a waiting game. When will a "risk-on" environment emerge? I don't know. But I don't think we'll be stuck in "risk-off" environment forever. It might take a month and it might take two or three years. I have no clue.
My personal bias is that it's coming sooner rather than later, but it might also be very short-lived.
Again, I'm just some guy on the internet.
