OLLI trade ideas
$OLLI Overbought - Hanging Man Candle$OLLI Overbought - appears to be topping out on low volume forming a hanging man candlestick today. RSI up close to 90. MFI topped out last week and is already turning down, diverging from price.
Expecting a near term correction out of overbought territory. Targeting mid-80s within 1-2 weeks.
Note: Informational analysis, not investment advice.
CUP AND HIGH VOLUM BUY OLLI 108.81$The closeout retailer, which is now an IBD Leaderboard stock, has seen strong demand during the coronavirus pandemic, with consumers looking for bargains and getting a boost after the government issued stimulus checks.
Late Tuesday, Ollie's Bargain Outlet released preliminary Q2 results, showing comparable store sales growth of approximately 40%. Full results are due Aug. 27.
Management also expects to post total net sales of approximately $515 million in Q2, which ends Aug. 1. That's well above consensus estimates for $384.5 million.
Gross margin is seen at approximately 39%, a return to historical second quarter levels. Operating margin is seen coming in at approximately 16%.
However, management warned the robust comparable store sales growth has decelerated in recent weeks. The company said it's now tracking in the positive mid-teens, adding that it should continue to moderate in Q3 and Q4.
NET MARGIN ABOUT 10%
1% CAPITAL
$OLLI Long over 105 Multi-year break out!Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. Provides Second Quarter Outlook
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc :
• OLLIE’S BARGAIN OUTLET HOLDINGS, INC. PROVIDES SECOND QUARTER OUTLOOK
• OLLIE'S BARGAIN OUTLET HOLDINGS INC - FOR Q2 OF FISCAL 2020 EXPECTS TOTAL NET SALES OF ABOUT $515 MILLION
• OLLIE'S BARGAIN OUTLET HOLDINGS INC - FOR Q2 OF FISCAL 2020 EXPECTS COMPARABLE STORE SALES GROWTH OF ABOUT 40%
• OLLIE'S BARGAIN OUTLET HOLDINGS INC - FOR Q2 OF FISCAL 2020 EXPECTS GROSS MARGIN OF APPROXIMATELY 39%
Ollie's Bargain Outlet sees Q2 revs above consensus
Co issues upside guidance for Q2 (Jul), sees Q2 (Jul) revs of ~$515 mln vs. $388.35 mln S&P Capital IQ Consensus.
Other Q2 Guidance:
Comparable store sales growth of approximately 40%;
Gross margin of approximately 39%, returning to historical second quarter levels;
Operating margin1 of approximately 16%
"The robust comparable store sales growth has decelerated in recent weeks, tracking in the positive mid-teens, and we expect growth to continue to moderate in the third and fourth quarters."
OLLI Long on horizontal support bounceWeekly analysis:
- Multiple red weeks in a row with volume spike towards near the support. Stock has a high probability of getting tired now.
- Good upside, not much resistance due to the red weeks in a row
Daily analysis:
- Double hammer with x2 and 1.5x volume spike near support
Intraday analysis:
- A higher low near support zone
- Huge volume spike with big green candle towards the end of the day on 16th Jan
$OLLI Set To Keep Climbing$OLLI had a big day yesterday, rising 15% on the back of strong Q3 numbers. $OLLI still has room to run as it is still down 32% off its 52-week highs. Here are the highlights from Q3:
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings (NASDAQ:OLLI) is higher after comparable sales fall by 1.4% in Q3 to miss the consensus estimate for a 1.1% drop, but the company's top line and bottom line both came in ahead of expectations.
The company says margins improved slightly in the quarter as an increase in merchandise margin, partially offset by higher supply chain costs as a percentage of net sales
The retailer expects FY20 revenue of $1.419B to $1.43B vs. $1.43B and FY20 $1.95 to $2.00 vs. $1.99 consensus.
Ollie's also disclosed the hiring of John Swygert as CEO following the death of Mark Butler.
The day's high of $70.99 is the key number to watch. We must get above there for the all-clear to be in.
As always, use protective stops and trade with caution.
Good luck to all!
$olli Shorts bet on a disappoinment in earnings Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. is a holding company, which engages in the retail of closeouts, excess inventory, and salvage merchandise. It offers overstocks, package changes, manufacturer refurbished goods, and irregulars. The company's products include housewares, food, books and stationery, bed and bath, floor coverings, electronics and toys. Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings was founded by Mark Butler, Mort Bernstein, Oliver Rosenberg and Harry Coverman on July 29, 1982 and is headquartered in Harrisburg, PA.
short interest 18%
OLLI - H&S breakdown Momentum short setup. OLLI seems breaking down from a H&S formation and continuing downward. Its showing strong downward momentum and Smart money indicator is deep into the negative zone. We think it has good downside potential.
To trade this one Could consider $90 October Puts. Last traded for $7.45
$ OLLI OLLIIE'S BARGAIN OUTLET RAISES GUIDANCEStrange to see a retailer raising guidance in the current market, most have reduced guidance blaming a host of issues, NASDAQ:OLLI
is on a strong path of growth and are confident in raising their longer term targets. We have listed the main points from the earnings transcript for you to consult. The chart also signal a move higher with multiple supports below from the channel and 50ma. It would be wise to wait and see how the market reacts to the results but any selling should be just some profit taking.
EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS
Revenue was up about 18% when compared to the year-ago quarter for Ollie’s Bargain, reaching $324.85 million and topping the Wall Street consensus estimate of $319 million. The business also tallied up same-store sales that increased roughly 0.8% when compared to the year-ago quarter, ahead of the projected surge of 1.5% that analysts called for.
For its fiscal 2019, the brand now forecasts adjusted earnings in the range of $2.13 to $2.17 per share, which is in line with what analysts are calling for. Ollie’s Bargain sees its sales in the range of $1.44 billion to $1.453 billion, while same-store sales are slated to gain 1% to 2% year-over-year, both of which are also in line with Wall Street’s consensus guidance.
Turning to our outlook we are raising our full year guidance to reflect first quarter results. While we believe the first quarter was strong, we remain prudent in how we plan the business given that we operate in a deal driven environment and we are lapping a very strong year. As we said last quarter, our plans are in line with our long-term annual target to maintain unit growth and 1% to 2% comp store sales increase which drives adjusted net income growth of approximately 20%.
AVERAGE ANALYSTS PRICE TARGET $97
AVERAGE ANALYSTS RECOMMENDATION OVERWEIGHT
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. is a holding company, which engages in the retail of closeouts, excess inventory, and salvage merchandise. It offers overstocks, package changes, manufacturer refurbished goods, and irregulars. The company's products include housewares, food, books and stationery, bed and bath, floor coverings, electronics and toys. Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings was founded by Mark Butler, Mort Bernstein, Oliver Rosenberg and Harry Coverman on July 29, 1982 and is headquartered in Harrisburg, PA.
