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Olaplex Holdings, Inc.Olaplex Holdings, Inc.Olaplex Holdings, Inc.

Olaplex Holdings, Inc.

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OLPX trade ideas

3/12/25 - $olpx - welcome back to my PnL3/12/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:OLPX welcome back to my PnL - after posting decent results - this premium haircare product co can probably do $100 mn fcf (v miminally) on 1 bn EV is 10% yield - i like the fact that the bar is low, this stock has held its own thru leadership transition - i'm not in love with amanda, but it's probably the fact that i'm not so in tune w haircare ... more a #s person - so i think downside fairly limited here and it's a pretty rentable stock higher - so i'd look to add the closer we'd get back to 1.30s and 1.20s a "full" position is probably 3% for me. right now i'll sit on my hands at $1.45 at 1% size. V
NASDAQ:OLPXLong
by VROCKSTAR
LONG OLPX - HUGE GAP FILL between $5.25 - $8.73Like the long here on OLPX. Lots of potential on the upside. Sure price can hang out in this range for a long minute, but calculate your risk into $0 and you can withstand the drawdown without thinking. Company is net profitable, EBITDA is tripe the net profit and has a significant amount in Free Cash Flow. Even though earnings are down from previous years. This company can weather the storm. The initial upside back to $2.80-$3.00 but long term see OPLX in the $7-9 range+ elite.finviz.com
NASDAQ:OLPXLong
by solocapital2030
1/8/25 - $olpx - I'm back at mid 1.50s1/8/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:OLPX I'm back at mid 1.50s - last q kept me waiting for mid 1's as i wrote about - it ripped and i sold for a meager 10% gain. whatever, gainz r gainz. - now we back in value territory. nearly 10% fcf yield. - good product, improving business under legit ceo - could still be some bumps along the road, but i'm a buyer lower - so i'm happy to own it here. 1.5% position to go. i'd like to take it higher. risk/reward favorable - today's sell off seems to be a small cap quake (*cough* quantum leading that charge lower) than anything fundamental. rates don't help, but specifically today... V
NASDAQ:OLPXLong
by VROCKSTAR
1
11/7/24 - $olpx - EPS not great, waiting room mid $1's11/7/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:OLPX EPS not great, waiting room mid $1's - whenever the CEO opens up a quarterly report with words like "This year has been dedicated to the transformation"... say no more. - I think Amanda has a good product (I use it actually!) and is the right person for the task at hand, but this turnaround won't be easy and probably more of a '25 event before we really see it producing fruit - if we imagine FCF could be probably more like 125 mm (i can't give credit for 150 mm next year) and a 15% discount rate (what i think the market will return! so it should be more, but i'm already erring on more conservative FCF guess), that's simplistically 125/.15 = ~$850. i could get to 1 bn if you want to put some growth in etc, etc, but i have my reasons (if you want me to expound i'll write you a valuation tome in the comments - and making that offer - i will). anyway stock is still 1.3 bn valuation EV (small net debt of ~150 mm). - the names that have any debt and aren't ripping the ball off the cover aren't doing well as yields spike. - while NASDAQ:OLPX defn makes $$ (thank goodness), the risk reward for a stock now off it's highs and losing some momentum on this print i think... means lower. - where do i start fishing? minimally $1.60's, but given we're entering a funky season of the year and i'd like to keep the book in high conviction beat/raise types with good '25 visibility (hello $nxt! hello CRYPTOCAP:BTC hello NYSE:TSM and NASDAQ:META )... it's tough for me to get involved right now. - lmk if you see it differently. - i'd like to own it again, but now i need a better reason... mainly lower price. V
NASDAQ:OLPX
by VROCKSTAR
Olaplex Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: OLPX) - Overview and InvestmentCompany Overview Name: Olaplex Holdings Inc. Ticker: OLPX (NASDAQ) Industry: Haircare Founded: 2014 Products: Scientifically formulated haircare treatments for repairing and strengthening hair against chemical, thermal, and mechanical damage. Olaplex Holdings Inc. is a well-regarded company in the haircare industry, known for its patented products designed to repair damaged hair. Its products are used both in professional salon settings and by consumers globally. Olaplex’s innovative formulas have made it a preferred choice for haircare professionals and customers seeking reliable repair solutions. Recent Developments Upcoming Financial Results Olaplex will report its third-quarter fiscal 2024 financial results on November 7, 2024. This announcement is anticipated to provide deeper insights into Olaplex’s revenue, profitability, and future guidance. Investors will closely watch this report to assess the company’s financial health and growth trajectory. Source: Olaplex to Report Q3 Financial Results on November 7 Analyst Rating Recently, Telsey Advisory’s analyst Dana Telsey maintained a Hold rating on Olaplex with a price target of $3.00. This rating reflects a neutral outlook, suggesting that Olaplex’s current price is in line with the analyst’s valuation and growth expectations. Source: Telsey Advisory Reiterates Hold on Olaplex Interest from Michael Burry’s Hedge Fund Scion Asset Management, the hedge fund managed by prominent investor Michael Burry, has included Olaplex in its top 10 stock picks for 2025. This attention from a high-profile investor indicates that Olaplex may be seen as undervalued or positioned for potential growth, highlighting Burry’s confidence in the company’s business model or future potential. Source: Olaplex Among Michael Burry’s Top 10 Picks Stock Price Performance and Recent Chart Analysis The latest trading charts show that Olaplex Holdings Inc. has seen a significant fluctuation in its stock price, which is closely aligned with broader market movements and sector trends. Analysts and investors may look to recent volume and price action for insights into market sentiment. The upcoming earnings report could be a key catalyst affecting short-term stock movement. Future Price Prediction and Target Price According to recent analyses and expert projections, Olaplex’s current target price is set at approximately $3.00 by Telsey Advisory. This target reflects a conservative outlook, in line with the company's recent performance and potential challenges in maintaining rapid growth within the competitive haircare sector. Investment Outlook Bullish Indicators Strategic Position in Haircare Market: Olaplex’s reputation for innovative and effective hair repair solutions gives it an edge within a niche yet growing sector. Institutional Interest: Interest from a high-profile hedge fund, such as Michael Burry's Scion Asset Management, suggests that Olaplex may be viewed as an undervalued opportunity with the potential for future appreciation. Bearish Indicators Neutral Analyst Sentiment: With a Hold rating and a modest target price of $3.00, analysts appear cautious regarding Olaplex's near-term potential, perhaps due to market competition or slowing growth. Upcoming Financial Results Uncertainty: The impending financial results announcement could either validate the company's current valuation or lead to increased volatility if performance fails to meet expectations. Overall Assessment On balance, while Olaplex benefits from brand strength and institutional interest, its immediate outlook appears moderate, with analysts expressing caution. The potential for growth may largely hinge on the November 7 earnings report and subsequent market reaction. Conclusion Based on the information gathered, Olaplex Holdings Inc. presents a mixed investment outlook. While the company is a leader in a unique market segment and has gained attention from prominent investors, analysts currently recommend a hold position. Investors may want to keep an eye on the upcoming earnings release, as it could provide key insights into Olaplex's financial health and growth strategy.
NASDAQ:OLPX
by Joekenstein7
6/27/24 - $olpx - Buy today, load truck sub $1.46/27/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:OLPX Buy today, load truck sub $1.4 EPS is slow and i've been on the road for 2 wks, so publishing in some strange stuff today. this is one i've been meaning to write up for some time and was very active in end of april right before i started doing writing publically. if you're not familiar with this product, it's a salon style shampoo. they went from crushing it hard core (like Celsius-style hype and growth) to getting blamed for people losing their hair using the shampoo. we all know what else made people lose hair but whatever, ppl blamed the shampoo. chit timing. so in a matter of a year, this thing goes from being ultra premium and loved to avoid and growth get shelled. for a growth stock on growth multiples that's pretty catastrophic to the earnings number and what you pay for that (the multiple). fast forward to this year. they bring in a new CEO that has a pretty great track record. amanda baldwin. she was at supergoop for several years and 10x'd its growth. she's also former PE (and has these relationships). so pull this all together and let's summarize the thesis so u all stay with me on this and the conclusions and what to do: 1. at ~$1.5/shr you have ~1 bn market cap and about 150 mm of net debt (though that includes >500 mm of cash, so 'tis not just debt and no cash buffer) 2. co just beat low expectations last Q and now amanda is coming into stabilize, re-write the partnerships w salons (that were abusing the brand/ relationship - more on that if u want we can take it to the comments). 3. ON SUPER LOW CASH FLOW NUMBERS bc that's what we value these troubled stocks on... i'd say you do 120 mm in FCF this year. that's 10% on the current enterprise value. 4. what's the right cost of capital for something that hasn't stabilized? probably 15+%. so the stock is "cheap" but it's not obviously cheap. (and trust me i even struggled to size it up in the $1.2's a few months ago - i remember the feeling and wondering if i was going to regret it). so you can afford to buy it today, but do NOT get too large is how i'm thinking about it. 5. i think she probably finds a strategic buyer for this. blackstone is her relationship (w fmr company), and this company remains w good cash generative footprint, capable leader and 10% is good enough for these guys to gear up for their 20% IRR's. THAT is why i think anything in the mid $1.5's is good money. ... TL;DR - it's a buy today, skew is probably 2:1 up/down. a greedy buyer waits for <$1.4/shr. and you sell other stuff to buy more of this in the $1.3's and below (responsibly frens, right?) put this on your watchlist. get a nice 1-2% spot for your portfolio and as it runs in the 12 mo. context/ time frame and amanda delivers we can sell some OTM C's for income to fund other stuff. k? thanks for hanging w me. i kinda puked more thoughts than wanted here, but it's a name i've traded a lot in the past successfully so have a good handle on the personality of the ticker. comments welcome. V
NASDAQ:OLPXLong
by VROCKSTAR
2
$OLPX is giving a GREAT IPO LONG opportunity todayIPO intraday trading strategy idea The share price is rising and gonna continue this trend today. The demand for shares of the company still looks higher than the supply. These and other conditions can cause a rise in the share price today. So I opened a long position from $25,02; stop-loss — $23,39; take-profit — $29,99/MOC price. Do not view this idea as a recommendation for trading or investing. It is published only to introduce my own vision. Always do your own analysis before making deals. When you use any materials, do not rely on blind trust. You should remember that isolated deals do not give systematic profit, so trade/invest using a developed strategy. If you like my content, you can subscribe to the news and receive my fresh ideas.
NASDAQ:OLPXLong
by KozakHlib