Members Daily Analysis - May 19 2024Markets close at weekly ATH.
Commodities surging, URA, Gold, Silver, Copper, Nat Gas
NVDA earnings on Wednesday.
PANW trade ideas
PANW Palo Alto Networks Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought the dip on PANW:
Then, after analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of PANW Palo Alto Network prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 300usd strike price Puts with
an expiration date of 2025-1-17,
for a premium of approximately $27.80.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
$PANW nice base and still good momentumNASDAQ:PANW nice base and still good momentum on a weekly financial still good but on the daily is a little weak. keep an eye on this support base, dump if it breaks.
PANW is a fundamental beastI been waiting a long time to start a position in this one.
Not very many megacaps end up on my list. I scan for fundamentals then look at TA for entries. The numbers really set this one apart.
ROE +89.52%
EPS Diluted Growth QoQ +780.12%
EPS Diluted Growth Quarterly YoY +1824.54%
EPS Diluted Growth TTM YoY +8305.52%
Revenue Growth QoQ +22.28%
Revenue Growth Quarterly YoY +19.33%
Revenue Growth TTM YoY +5.15%
$PANW – Looks like it may have bottomedNASDAQ:PANW This cybersecurity leader got beat-up on the last earnings report. It looks to me that it may have bottomed out. On this weekly chart (the week is still young) it is in the process of setting up as an inside week. It is regaining the 40 Week MA which I view as important. Additionally, the volume has been declining since the big sell-off. I take that to mean that the selling pressure is over or about over. I am going to be patient with this one and look for it to close above that 40-week MA. If it does, I will look at a lower timeframe chart for a good entry where I can find a good risk reward entry.
For now, it is on my watchlist as a B+ set-up in the making.
The chart I am using is the All-In-One LevelUp tool available here on TV. Check it out.
Ideas, not investing / trading advice. Comments always welcome. Thanks for looking.
Swing Into Potential Crash - Pt. 2PANW has traded in a boring range since I last posted my original idea (linked below). Here are the dynamics that have unfolded, and my forecast from here:
- The main factor we need to determine is if the recent consolidation is accumulation or re-distribution (I'm leaning toward re-distribution with a UTAD upcoming - meaning one more pop before major drop).
- There is a ton of overhanging supply, but at the same time a major gap above to fill
- Overall market is nearing a top (but still some gas left in the tank), so if we assume PANW won't completely disregard the rest of the market, then the re-distribution with a UTAD scenario makes sense ( for traders this means swing long currently, and then swing short based on
my updated forecast, below)
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Forecast/Predicted price action:
A) Needs to clear 281.71 to give a new signal to enter long (I want to see a close above that level this week). If it gets rejected again at 281.71 then it will see another pullback along the thick red arrow on chart.
B) If we clear 281.71 then it will test 287.79 minimum , so I'll be looking at Apr 26 285 or 286 calls. Once it tests 287.79 , I'll sell half of my calls ITM and then wait for the major test (i.e. rejection at 287-288 or breakout above that level)
- If rejected then I will exit remaining calls but not switch to puts just yet, would need more confirmation. It would likely pullback along the 1pt red arrow if rejected
- if breaks above then I will hold my calls for target scenario (C)
C) If we get to scenario (B) and get the breakout above 287.79, then I'm expecting continuation higher to 298 - 300 ( my initial target = 299.20 by 4/19/2024 ).
- after it hits initial target then it will pullback to retest 287-288 for support before making one final run into the 300s. Don't short until this makes it into 300s to test the gap. It will crash later in 2024 so shorts will have their day soon. I'll send an update once this makes it to 299, but until then I gave you everything you need to trade this.
~Not financial advice. I'm not currently in a position, but will enter calls if we get the sustained break (or close) above 281.79.
Swing It Into A Potential CrashIn summary, if you are in (or considering buying) shares, this is Mid-term bearish. I would highly recommend against entering or adding shares here. You will likely have a better chance to exit/sell in the 330s around March 11-12th.
For those playing options, I can share my strategy - you'll have to be nimble to swing this for profits, but very do-able since I know the path it will take from here.
The smarter strategy is to wait until this confirms a higher low and then short it around March 12th-13th, But if you like making real money on weekly options with high risk here is what to do. Not Financial Advice.
To follow this chart, just pay attention to the thick black arrow - that is my forecast/path that price action will take. The thick red and green arrows align with the black arrow. Read below to see the exact levels and pivot dates I am looking for.
- PANW will likely pullback some more to 276-290 (-4% to -9% from current price: 302.40). This will happen fast - by March 5th End of Day (3/5/2024). So IF it doesn't gap down Monday, I'll be buying a few Mar 8 295 puts for ~3.40 and then looking to sell for over 7.00 Tuesday 3/5 before the close . But if it gaps down Monday 3/5 (which is possible), I'll be holding off on this swing and waiting for my chance to swing long. Hard stop loss will be a break above 306 at any point, if it breaks above 306 that is first near-term bullish signal, if it breaks above 315 it will confirm it has started next bullish leg.
- After the small pullback to expected range of 276-290, PANW will make its last bounce to around 327-338 (depending on where it bottoms in current down leg, this is a possible +16% to +22% bounce coming). Once I sell my Mar 8 puts on 3/5 before close, I will immediately buy Mar 15 300 calls - the premiums should be around 3.00-5.00 at this point but it will depend on where it bottoms exactly. The bounce will last through 3/11-3/12, so I will be looking to sell half my calls at 327 (for at least 27.00) and then sell the other half around 338 (for at least 38.00)
*** After this bounce to 327-338, the real downside will begin. I will send an update with my precise target when we see how this plays out and at what levels it bottoms and tops in this path/forecast, but my estimate target is 210-240 by end of March to Early April (Potential for a 100 point drop!!). I'll be going big on April 19 puts when this bounces to the 327-338 range.
Stay tuned for updates along the way.
$PANW - Potential Head and shouldersNASDAQ:PANW With the potential head and shoulder formation, I don't think I like the chart setup to go long at current level.
A full measured move for the H&S breakdown is $185 area with $256 and $227 areas being a potential reversal area.
Remember, the H&S only validate only if it breaks below the neckline.
👀ing for now.
PANW Looking Bullish 3/25/24With Cybersecurity becoming a growing concern for the USA and companiesaround the world this sector has much more room for growth... With the big drop in PANW price after earning this stock is setting up for a nice bullish reversial, Im thinking in short term will will see price rise back above $300 and to $315+. Nancy Pelosi has also bought calls on this stock for 2025... What more do you need. LONG IT!
PANW bearish short-term, but Bullish Long-term?I am still undecided about this stock, it seems to be getting investors attention after Nancy bought call options and her last venture with NVDA, I am still bearish short term given the price action and gaps to the south side. I would not be comfortable buying till price lowers to about 270-275. There is also an ongoing fraud class action suit involving PANW. This could be what lowers the price presenting a buying opportunity. I am bullish long-term due to the rise and need of cyber security and the people need/want of more privacy online; I am using TA to perform this analysis, but will update weekly.
PANW: Potential BuyBroke out from a rising channel a while ago and formed a new one as seen on the chart. Price currently touching a support zone. Preferable entry would be at the 23.60% retracement area. Targets at $380 and $402.
just let it settle a bitEveryone wants to pile in the news of Nancy P buying calls, but why not let things settle down first? I'd feel a lot better buying around the green then buying now at resistance.
Short opportunity on $PANWNASDAQ:PANW Good short opportunity on this stock. Breakdown on earnings rallied to $330 and now breaking down again after stock didn't go above 21day ema. Short stock with stop loss above $337
Buying more PANWBrought some more PANW. Price has dropped a bit since the initial 5th Wave piviot was identified. This is also a Pelosi buy. The US representative from California filled > MIL:1M in the cyber security stock in Feb. She buys because she knows things... lets see what happens here. I'm initially targeting 378 but will probably go further
PANW - Charted for 8Mar ( PotterBox ) Looking to long PANW - will swing over the weekend if I need to.
We've got plenty of taps at the top of the current box and a decent amount of empty space to go grab and squeeze out shorts.
Long on PANWAfter jumping from the 200MA, we can see that it jumped nicely from the 100MA. I would wait for anther candle of conformation and go long until it filles the gap.
PANW, 2/23-2/26, profit 10%On 2/20/2024, Palo Alto Networks (PANW) reported earnings of $1.52 per share on revenue of $1.98 billion for the fiscal second quarter ended January 2024. The consensus earnings estimate was $1.30 per share on revenue of $1.97 billion.
The Pelosi Long Call PANW
Looking for a gap fill up to the $360 level after being sold off heavily from those taking profit after its run up from the mid 100s.
Holding a very long January 2025, 540 call option anticipating continued growth of cyber-security companies now that AI is gaining steam.
PANW Fibonacci extensionsPANW will fill the gap, continue up in near future than retrace back to retracement from previous high 50% and 0.612 area stock price between 250-270 area
"PANW" Palo Alto Networks - Insider TradingPANW is being bought by US Parliament member Nancy Pelosi, she bought twice in past month.
The current price is in perfect Golden Zone on Daily chart. If we go past ATH there is no actual telling where it will go up to next, we might just move sideways for now to reset RSI or even start moving up at any time. But it also might just drop down a bit.
Palo Alto Networks, a cybersecurity company that provides advanced firewall and cloud security solutions. Palo Alto Networks offers a range of products and services aimed at protecting organizations from cyber threats, including next-generation firewalls, cloud security, endpoint protection, and threat intelligence services. The company is known for its focus on innovation and its commitment to helping businesses secure their digital assets against evolving cyber threats.
PANW potential buy setupReasons for bullish bias:
- Price bounced from strong support
- Price bounce from strong 0.5 Fib
- No divergence
- Positive Earnings
Entry Level(CMP): 311.08
Stop Loss Level: 255.89
Take Profit Level 1: 366.27
Take Profit Level 2: Open
