Temu's Price Magic: Shattered by Tariffs?PDD Holdings, the parent entity behind the popular e-commerce platform Temu, confronts a severe operational challenge following the recent imposition of stringent US tariffs targeting Chinese goods. These trade measures, particularly the dismantling of the "de minimis" rule for Chinese shipments, directly threaten the ultra-low-cost business model that fueled Temu's rapid expansion in the US market. The elimination of the previous $800 duty-free threshold for individual packages strikes at the core of Temu's logistical and pricing strategy.
The impact stems from newly enacted, exceptionally high tariffs on these formerly exempt low-value parcels. Reports indicate rates escalating to 90% of the item's value or a significant flat fee, effectively nullifying the cost advantages Temu leveraged by shipping directly from manufacturers in China. This fundamental shift disrupts the financial viability of Temu's model, which relied heavily on tariff-free access to deliver goods at minimal prices to American consumers.
Consequently, significant price increases for products sold on Temu appear almost inevitable as PDD Holdings grapples with these substantial new costs. While the company's official response is pending, economic pressures suggest consumers will likely absorb these charges, potentially eroding Temu's primary competitive advantage and slowing its growth momentum. PDD Holdings now faces the critical task of navigating this disrupted trade landscape and adapting its strategy to maintain its market position amidst heightened protectionism and geopolitical tension.
PDD trade ideas
Pinduoduo $220PDD has a lot of potential to rise to $220 and above. China has been battered and this stock trades with a 12 PE ratio. That's about as cheap of a stock with revenue growth like this you're going to find.
The CSI 300 index has finished it's 2022 correction and is in a uptrend likely supporting PDD rising.
Good luck!
Campaign Trading this company to $175Technical Indicators and Analyst Ratings
Overall Recommendation: Neutral, with some leaning towards a "Strong Buy."
1-Year Price Target: $146.22, a potential increase of 27.96%.
Company Profile
Founded: 2015 by Hua Lin Cai and Zheng Huang.
Headquarters: Dublin, Ireland.
Business Model: A multinational commerce group focusing on digital economy inclusion for local communities and small businesses.
Heavy Volume Build Up! Little Double Dip?Seen in the volume profile levels to the left, there is a large volume displacements and price looks like it wants $110 this week.
High amounts of calls at the $110 strike expiring 1/10. Its only right lol.
Large volume on the $130 & $150 strikes expiring 1/17
Price targets:
#1
$110 by end of week
#2
$120
#3
$140
PDD Going Up! ✅ Breakout Potential – PDD has been consolidating near key resistance levels, and a breakout above $108 could trigger the next leg up. If it holds above this level, I see a possible huge upward directional move.
✅ Volume Expansion – Recent trading sessions have seen higher-than-average volume, which is often a sign that institutions are accumulating shares.
PDD is not just another e-commerce stock—it’s a growth powerhouse with strong fundamentals and a compelling technical setup. If the stock maintains its bullish trajectory, we could see new all-time highs soon.
What are your thoughts on PDD? Bullish or bearish? Drop your insights in the comments! 📢📊
$PDD has 50-60% upside from $100- NASDAQ:PDD has solid growth and temu is currently launching into new regions with TAM increasing with each entered zone.
- Chinese equities are dirt cheap and have performed badly in last 4 years. Trump was seen as detrimental for chinese equities. However, I will play the devil's advocate here and say Trump will be good for China. If US wants to prosper then it's better to sort deals and grow together vs making china as enemy economically.
- Lot of companies of US have manufacturing in China and Chinese consumers especially middle class is getting stronger thus offering selling opportunities for US companies.
- China will ease monetary policy to revive the demand and consumption which should boost economy
11/23/24 - $pdd - Close to buying again... ~$10011/23/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:PDD
Close to buying again... ~$100
- have traded this one around quite extensively, but it's always been a rental, because I'm never quite confident to own chinese stonks after getting the Brandon treatment on my Yandex shares (which eventually turned to NASDAQ:NBIS and i got to dump for btc)
- the VIE structures in china remain a concern, to be sure. but ironically i feel much more confident w Trumpo in whitehouse and this setup vs. Kamelo. his first term did similar to chinese stonks, sending them back "home" before there was less concern over time. to be sure China needs the US "less" than 4-8 years ago, but it remains important. also it's all one big club as my friend george carlin says and you and i r not in it (or if you are... godspeed). which is to say, it's all theater they r all friends and ultimately there are no real wars anymore (but i digress...)
- so back to $pdd. conf call yielded what sounded like a sequel to the last result "growth moderating so we'll spend more"
- but when you look at google trends, a consumer still spending, and a cash strapped consumer... and i realize that google trends aren't the be-all-end-all but they help in the case of gauging brand/ retail interest. TEMU looks pretty legit (that's the marginal grower in the portfolio)
trends.google.com
- so what's the right price for a chinese stock? always impossible to know short-term. but let's consider amazon is the gold standard. you get half the growth (conservatively bc it's probably 1/3) for 4-5x the PE multiple (of pdd) and you get 20% fcf yield on PDD (on their EV) vs. amzn at 3%.
- what about other chinese stocks i follow (typically only the top 3 at this stage b/c the others are exposed to the same risks and with more downside - bc they r not as passively owned) but probably w similar upside. so let's see about another big one, $baba. multiple slightly higher on PE and fcf yield (which i'd point to as the guiding light when valuation metrics are already v low) as 11%. JD closer to 13% fcf yield. a smaller one... NYSE:VIPS (low to now growth) at closer to 30%. so NASDAQ:PDD 's ~20% yield looks pretty attractive for a co that should all-things-equal be the larger enterprise value company (vs. baba).
- what's the right way to play it? the million dollar question. into year-end, the stock might see a lot of vol to be sure. i'd hardly see US funds necking into this with size esp when they can take "china risk" with NYSE:TSM which is probably my favorite single name at the moment - i might write that up again. furthermore, tax loss season is upon us, so weak action on recent AMEX:KWEB and all corresponding chinese stonks is going to force some rearranging by passive funds into year end as well. ultimately a bottom could be soon (could already be in), but given i see little reason for the stonk to retrace it's big (again) down move without additional sellers repositioning... the risk/reward looks balanced. as mentioned i am not a "must own china" exposure guy. and my NYSE:TSM position (using leverage) at nearly 25% is big enough.
- so the way i'm personally playing it in my PA is further waiting. if it rips/ big catalyst, trump sucks the chinese star... i can hop back in. i'll add it to the top of my watchlist (at this pt i generally will be watching NASDAQ:PDD > NYSE:BABA > NASDAQ:JD as canaries.. the others i'll look again with detail if/when the bellwethers run).
- keep an eye on the gap from late '24 as well. market makers have a funny way of dotting these i's and crossing these t's. low $80s would be a good entry.
- one more thing. i'm probably going to use medium-term leverage if we go lower. why? because i don't want to tie up a ton of notional cash in chinese names that could take time for catalyst to play out, but are explosive to the upside if/when. furthermore, if something whacky happens, i'd rather take the smaller L then have to cut or be cut off in my account with a zero. i ascribe a small scenario of the "yandex" style event, but would want to build some optionality for myself if/does happen, including ability to size up the calls with a longer dated exposure. remember - the main objective is to not lose money and to set ourselves up in the way where we can maximize upside to downside. i like calls on the chinese names when duty calls.
- if you've stuck with me on this long one. i appreciate you (i always do). have been traveling the last week and missed some action, so i'm here on a Saturday reviewing some buckets of names that i've been meaning to check in on (like China).
be blessed,
V
$PDD reversal finally coming for China stocks?PDD set to make a bullish move. Price at trendline going back to May and also at the demand zone from September before October’s parabolic move. RSI, MACD, and STOCH are all curling up and oversold. A break above 102.50 and this will explode higher. Initial PT at 110 and followed by gapfill PT at 114. SL at break and close of bottom trendline.
$PDD Long to $106-$108I entered into a long on NASDAQ:PDD at $97.50 and am moving my stop loss up to $97.5 from $95. Either PDD breaks $100 and we reach downtrend resistance around $106-$108, or it gets rejected here and goes down further. I'm positioning myself in case this happens, potentially losing current profit but leaving the trade open for an additional 7-9%.
PDD (TEMU) is the new WISHPinduoduo, once a rising star in China's e-commerce market, has recently reported earnings below expectations, marking a significant turning point for its stock. This paper analyzes the technical and fundamental reasons why PDD Holdings' stock could experience a dramatic drop, similar to Wish.com, a platform that lost most of its market value due to strategic missteps, intense competition, and declining investor confidence.
1. Fundamental Analysis
1.1. Disappointing Earnings
For the first time, Pinduoduo has posted earnings below market expectations. This is a red flag for several reasons:
Decelerating Growth: A mismatch between analysts' projections and actual performance suggests Pinduoduo's rapid growth model may be unsustainable.
Margin Pressures: Declining profit margins indicate rising competition or operational inefficiencies, reminiscent of Wish.com.
1.2. Vulnerable Business Model
Like Wish, Pinduoduo operates on a low-margin, high-volume group-buying model that is inherently fragile:
Low-Value Customers: A customer base driven primarily by extreme discounts tends to lack loyalty and is highly price-sensitive.
Perceived Low Quality: Offering low-quality products risks damaging the brand's reputation over time.
1.3. Slowing Chinese Market
China's e-commerce sector is becoming saturated, with fierce competition from established players like Alibaba and JD.com. This market saturation could further hinder Pinduoduo's ability to grow and retain market share.
2. Technical Analysis
2.1. Downward Trend in Stock Price
Pinduoduo's stock has recently declined significantly, reflecting bearish investor sentiment. Key technical indicators show:
Bearish Breakout: The stock price has broken key support levels at $80 and is heading toward lower thresholds.
Price Target of $20: Based on Fibonacci retracements and Elliott Wave Theory, the next significant support level is around $20.
2.2. Increased Volatility
Recent trading sessions have seen a surge in volume, a classic indicator of institutional selling. This signals aggressive selling pressure, which could accelerate the stock's decline.
3. Parallels with Wish.com
3.1. Wish.com's Decline
Wish.com saw its stock collapse from $32 during its IPO to less than $1 due to:
Disappointing Financial Results: Consistent earnings misses eroded investor trust.
Intense Competition: Other platforms like Amazon and Shopee captured market share.
Loss of Active Users: An unsustainable business model led to a shrinking customer base.
3.2. Similarities with Pinduoduo
Pinduoduo exhibits similar vulnerabilities, including:
Low Margins and High Competition: Like Wish, Pinduoduo faces a highly competitive environment that puts downward pressure on margins.
Brand Weakness: A growing perception of low-quality products could erode customer trust and loyalty.
4. Current Developments and Risks
Earnings Miss: PDD reported third-quarter revenue growth of 44%, reaching 99.35 billion yuan ($13.7 billion), falling short of the 102.43 billion yuan expected by analysts.
Stock Performance: Following the earnings miss, PDD shares dropped 8% in pre-market trading, reflecting growing concerns over its growth trajectory.
PDD eyes on $110.45: Golden Genesis fib to start the next move PDD and all Chinese stocks has been whipsawed.
Now approaching well proven Golden Genesis fib.
Even the Fib-Blind are keenly aware of this level.
$110.45 is the Golden Genesis to hold.
$101.98 then 96.75 are support fibs below.
$124.15 above will the first target/resistance.
===========================================
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PDD - hyper growth gem Rising wedge was always going to break down. This company has high exposure to the Chinese consumer, which continues to struggle with no end in sight. That is reflected in the stock price of companies like Alibaba which trade at very low valuations. But unlike Alibaba, PDD is a hyper growth stock and has taken a lot of their market share.
Looking at the technicals, there is a gap fill between $80-90. I did start with a small buy at $97 but I’m looking to start a sizeable position at the gap fill. We have all sorts of confluence on the chart, I tend to favour Fibonacci retracement and Fibonacci time based trend, along with the Speedfan.
I like what I see for a long term investment, not looking to trade this. I do believe the Chinese economy will rebound, and when it does PDD will have a violent rebound.
Not financial advice, just my thoughts. I will continue to monitor this and keep you updated. Happy trading!
80% correction for PDD Holdings Inc ??On the above 12 day chart price action has increased 450% since March 2022. A number of reasons now exist for a bearish outlook. They include:
1) Failed support for price action and RSI.
2) Regular bearish divergence, lots of it. Seven oscillators print negative divergence with price action. Look left.
3) The rising wedge breakout and backtest. On confirmation price action has a high probability or returning to where the wedge began as measured from the apexes, which is $30.
Is it possible price action continues upwards and onwards? Sure.
It is probable? No.
Ww
Pinduoduo making monthly BULLISH ENGULFING SeptemberNASDAQ:PDD
PDD makes at monthly chart since IPO now in Sept the third Bullish Engulfing!
BUT look how big it is this time - HUGE UPSIDE GAIN IS NOW IN THE MAIKING AND IT JUST STARTED ....... MUCH MORE TO COME NOW!
Just look what happened at prior BULLISH ENGULVINGS ...... THIS IS HUGE - HUGE - HUGE (!)
PDD Noteworthy Swing Support Levels, and a word of cautionLooking at NASDAQ:PDD after its earnings fallout, here are some interesting support levels to watch.
The 0.618 Fibonacci retrace from the March 2022 pivot low to the May pivot high is at $77.25.
Additionally, while Head and Shoulder patterns are not the most reliable, there is a level around $75 obtained from the decently shaped H&S price measurement dropped down from the neckline (white dotted line). Once more, there is a major Gann support level (720 degrees down from the May high pivot) at $78.02, adding another strong factor to this probability window.
Another point of interest; dropping the H&S price measurement from the pre-earnings close is almost exactly at today's close (see yellow dotted line). Also piercing the $90.28 gap window, with the gap fill at $80.76 (August 2023).
Now, depending on the desired length of a swing trade, it is worth noting comparable earnings drawdowns that did not rebound the same or following day:
ROKU (February 2024) NASDAQ:ROKU
Just now retracing six months later.
PTON (November 2021) NASDAQ:PTON
Not yet recovered, if ever.
NFLX NASDAQ:NFLX
The positive: January 2022 fall on earnings saw a four day down period before a quick partial recovery.
The long wait: April 2022 fall on earnings took about six months before retracing to similar levels.
Not financial advice.