PLCE: Turn Around StoryOpportunistic pick up to add to position. Market is reading too much in a CFO swap.
Fundamentals
+ Business is turning around (toward profitability)
- Unclear whether new management's plan will pan out due to a highly elastic customer (losing a significant amount of customers for marginal improvements in margin)
+ Last quarter weaker than usual due to a shift forward in the start of the school year (school spending started later) - will support earnings for next quarter
+ Cheap (esp as major input prices continue to shrink and get reflected in the income statement), expect to see margin improvement; but also a risk if we see barriers to trade go up next year from the president elect
Technical
+ Finding support around 10.75-11.25 (great place to add)
+ Primary holder holding most the shares showing limited availability of liquidity
+ Feel of the chart suggests most existing holders are finding value - moves are exaggerated to the downside because of liquidity but are quickly getting picked up (see last dip on bad earnings); downside moves are look fast and exaggerated because any seller has to sweep through the market to source liquidity. Buyers respond in kind by offering liquidity (picking up shares via limit orders and gradually moving up).
+ Options are extremely rich so puts more pressure on the underlying shares to source liquidity (options too expensive to carry long or short).
+ Price is consolidating, resembles flag-esque pricing action; and very different than prior moves which saw upward thrusts before a move lower.
Targeting: short term target 16 as the base case (top of flag) or highs 20s to reflect current fundamental value (potentially higher if margin returns and top line stabilizes).
PLCE trade ideas
PLCE - Another potential short squeezer!Children's Place Inc operate an omni-channel children's specialty portfolio of brands in North America. It design, contract to manufacture, and sell fashionable, high-quality apparel, accessories and footwear predominantly at value prices under proprietary The Children's Place, Place, Baby Place, Gymboree, Sugar & Jade, and PJ Place brand names.
This is a high risk idea - keep this in mind!
Shares float: 5.05M
Short float: 44.33%
Tripple bottom pattern
Breakout Zone: $10.00
Action: If the stock breaks above this area with strong volume, it might signal a continuation of the upward trend.
Overall Market Sentiment:
Currently, the market seems to be in a correction phase. It’s crucial to consider this sentiment when making trading decisions.
Resistance Points:
$10.00
$12.00
$15.00
$17.00
$20.00
Surpassing these levels could signal a positive trend. Consider taking profits at these stages to realize gains.
Trading Strategy:
Take Profit (TP): Set a target at $25.00
Stop Loss (SL): Set at under $6.30 to mitigate potential losses.
Chart Analysis:
Please refer to the attached chart for detailed analysis of price trends and movements.
Trading Advisory:
Exercise caution and consider market conditions and your own risk tolerance when trading. It's advisable to conduct comprehensive research or consult with a financial advisor before engaging in trading activities.
Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.
PLCE has rsik to reward ratio of 15 at current price $7.70sPLCE has rsik to reward ratio of 15 at current price $7.70s.
Free Float Shares is 4.83M - Positive News
In Business since 1969 - Positive News
Annual Revenue in 2023 is $1.7Billion - Positive News
Cash and Equilent is $16M - Negative News
Earning Forecasted to go down next 3 quarters - Negative News
52 Week Low - Negative News
Similar Prices Happen in 2003 - Positive News
PLCE crash and flush on pre-emptive warning from executives LONGPLCE as shown on the 30 minute time frame had a "waterfall" event when a bad news catalyst
hit the wires. Executives announced earnings issues one month out from the report due about
March 14th. Maybe is real and may not. The are no filings available to show any insider sell-
off unlike what is going on at General Dynamics at its all-time high. Could those executives
push traders to bail on the stock, force it to crater and then buy even more at the bottom or
have friends and family help them if they are well informed ? Who knows ? Does the CEO of
TSLA have a plan to help share prices drop so when his new compensation plan is set up he
gets even more shares and price rises to make his unrealized losses magically disappear.
Is there manipulation in the market ? Is this a case of it ?
Anyway enough said. PLCE is in early reversal and recovery. It has crossed the moving averages
on the chart and there is a massive volume of buyers scooping from the bottom in the
closing Friday afternoon. I was one of them. My shares and options are few. ( compared with
the CEO/COO/CFO guys at Children's Place.- they typically buy 100,000 shares at a pop - after
all they have the confidence of already knowing what is going on inside) I typically want to
see 2-3X relative volume to put on a big position. This is 4X. Seems the risk is low compared
with a 60% upside back to price levels before the news. Price has already recovered partially.
My stock trade is 5% above break even after less than a day and now has a 3% trail stop so
I don't need to pay attention to it. The call options targeting $19 for March 16th are up 16%
in the first day. I will sell to close a day or two before earnings to hedge my suppositions.
If earnings are as bad as these executives say. The call options will plummet.
My alternative is to keep the call options running but hedge them with a single put option
below ITM for a strike OTM expiring the same day setting up a strangle to take much of the risk
way. In that case, the call options would still fall with a bad earnings miss but the put option
will provide insurance buffering the loss. It remains to be seen how this plays out and I will
check for SEC filings at intervals. For now, I will chase the relative volume because it is higher
than the typical for similar scenarios. Best of luck to any traders who take this trade.
No PLCE like HomePLCE completed a tower bottom with today's daily close... if it can close above the next white line with a strong two day candle, it will signify a short term bottom to potentially a mid/long-term bottom (esp. if it does it by tomorrow's close). R:R would be stop at recent lows with a target of the median line of the pitchfork, white path. This could morph into a much larger wave off the lows, but one step at a time. GLTA!
(Short) Children's Place, contracting business with high debtLower highs are in.
The 2020 post Covid19 stimulus rally has failed to break 2019 highs. It is a lower high with respect to 2018 highs.
Revenue and profits earning are declining despite the high level of debt. This means to say, debt is unable to convert to sales.
Going forward in an increasing IR environment, this company might find trouble making sales and repaying debt at the same time.
On the technical side, the top is in at 19Nov21 and the support level has broken.
Work out your own risk, entry, and stop-loss level. We will be putting this on our watchlist to wait for a good entry and then it will be shared.
Stock To WatchThe Market has resumed its uptrend, but I still see growth names not fully participating. These names have shown good relative strength and accumulation volume and most are in the growth sector. This may give good risk/reward entries on some of the best names. Some of these charts still need to confirm their price action. This video is my watchlist. Most of these names are at or near all time highs or multi year highs. There are 32 total stocks on this list. I add an additional 3 stocks that are on my potential short squeeze watch list. Many of these have IPO'd in the last few years and still have a growth story ahead of them. Know your time frame and risk tolerance. Know your earnings dates! I go through these quickly so grab a pencil and paper and jot down the names that look interesting to you and then make the trade your own. Good Luck!
Stocks To WatchThe Bull Market is strong, this week I expect the market to by choppy. This may give good risk/reward entries on some of the best names. Some of these charts still need to confirm their price action. This video is my watchlist. Most of these names are at or near all time highs or multi year highs. There are 36 total stocks on this list. I add an additional 7 stocks that are on my potential short squeeze watch list. Many of these have IPO'd in the last few years and still have a growth story ahead of them. Know your time frame and risk tolerance. I go through these quickly so grab a pencil and paper and jot down the names that look interesting to you and then make the trade your own. Good Luck!
PLCE, was a top quarterly gainer. Expect an Uptrend continuationA buy signal is generated. I analyzed 38 stocks in the Apparel/Footwear Retail Industry over the last three months and discovered that 33 of them (85.71%) charted an Uptrend while 5 of them (14.29%) trended down. I found 288 similar cases when PLCE's price jumped over 15% within three months. In 151 out of those 288 cases, PLCE's price went up during the following month. Based on these historical data, I think the odds of an Uptrend continuation for PLCE are 52%.