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Qualys, Inc.Qualys, Inc.Qualys, Inc.

Qualys, Inc.

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QLYS trade ideas

9/10/24 - $qlys - probably a buy $120 but want $1009/10/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:QLYS probably a buy $120 but want $100 - previous note set the tgt sub $125 and here we are taking another look after the patience paid off - but consistent w/ my NASDAQ:ALRM note, the if/then price logic needs to be followed up by "what happened since" and the answer is "a lot" - i think the MAIN issue already but increasingly in '25 for B2B software will be the impact of AI either internally, by listed comps and by start ups. the unknown unknown of this effect on EPS basically and probably means the street will underpay for multiple and overpay for actual results/ beats. so for a stock (such as this one) where the beats have been pretty well telegraphed/ meager and the growth is still a healthy double digits (but not much more), we will need to see a bit more juice - as such, I think the logic here goes that ex-stock comp $200 mm of FCF on $4 bn of enterprise value (take out the net debt from the cap) gives you 5% yield. growing and assuming they keep pace w/ industry/ aren't disrupted by AI... that's great. it's a buy. - but as of rn, there are many other alternatives, many of which that won't be disrupted by AI (or are leading the charge!) including pretty attractively priced large caps like NASDAQ:META and NASDAQ:GOOGL and my fav hardware name $NXT. of course OTC:GDLC benefits and leads the charge on AI exchanging value with AI too - but that's for another thread. - so TL;DR. all else equal, the stock is a buy. i don't need to own it, so i'm not going to buy it. i don't think i'll be missing out or feel any sort of FOMO if this one gets away from me, similar to my last post mortem note. i'd love it in the low $100s at this stage... if it ever gets there. otherwise i'm a pass and will root you on from the sidelines V
NASDAQ:QLYSLong
by VROCKSTAR
Qualys (QLYS): Interesting Player in the Cybersecurity SpaceKey Rationale: Significantly undervalued tech company with uncorrelated returns that's been on my watchlist. Company Profile: Qualys is a cloud security and compliance solutions provider that helps businesses identify and manage their security risks and compliance requirements. The California-based company has more than 10,000 customers worldwide, the majority of which are small- and medium-size businesses. Qualys was founded in 1999 and went public in 2012. Competitors: SPSC, PANW, CRWD, FTNT Risks: The industry moves at a rapid pace. Small cap middle market player may be competing against larger Cybersecurity players. Long-term restraints.
NASDAQ:QLYSLong
by RHTrading
5/8/24 - $qlys post mortem and interest levels ~$125ish5/8/24 - vrockstar - post market review here and running the #s. 1) this must be a HQ co bc the chart/ results seem to be quite consistent. cash generative, great, net cash, no need to raise etc. etc. good R&D budget, good zip code (clould aux). 2) nearly 30x PE is TOO expensive for 10% EPS growth implied and nearly 10x sales also (way) too rich for 10+% growth - just is what it is - the market is not paying this 3) and results were fine, but by no means a beat/ smash and many of the good results are getting dumped, so being down 10% here is lucky IMO... so where does that put my interest? Well I could argue for $300 mm of FCF gen on a $6 bn ev of 5% yield as "already a buy in a multi-year context"... b/c i see opex flex improving FCF more than the market seems to be implying. The right multiple here is probably in the low 20s, just to be conservative let's say 22x on 5.25$/shr = $115/shr. this is a greedy target, i get it, esp for a co that does buybacks, and per the nice words from me above. so I get interested sub $125. otherwise I'm going to just have to let it go. i believe the way it gets here is we see a risk puke in tech and this sucks the smaller factors on higher beta affecting names like this. that's where you'd see a # like this. otherwise i sit on the sidelines and find another higher place to get involved in a different rates environment later in the year and perhaps a few more EPS prints in our belt.
NASDAQ:QLYS
by VROCKSTAR
QLYS getting quashedBearish on QLYS. Long term headed towards 135. Short term: Possible bounce toward 180-185 from current price of 165. But only if it at least holds onto the 165 level until April 5th to clear its current downtrend. Then a drop to 145, making another bounce to165 before making its final drop to 135. Slight chance it may make a quick dip into the low 120's just to check in with its baseline, but if it does happen it would be quick. I'd look into buying here because I would be bullish on QLYS at that point. Since I have no confidence as to the time frame, I won't be making any plays on this analysis. But just so I can check back in after it plays out for a bit, best guess now is 135 low in the latter half of May.
NASDAQ:QLYSShort
by fmpax22
Ideal Bullish SetupQLYS has one of my favorite re-accumulation patterns that is setting up for a 40% rally over the next few months. Breakout level = 172.49 (it should complete the breakout on 3/12 -3/13) *Initial Target = 175 by 3/14/2024 ** Target 1 = 184 by 3/22 Target 2 = 192 ~Initial Target and Target 1 will hit on the first leg up following this breakout, Target 2 might not hit until the second leg up after a pullback to form higher low. Expected path/forecast is the black arrow, summary: - run to 184-192 by end of March 2024 (as early as 3/22), sign of strength - Pullback to test 172-175 for support, backup/retest - If that holds it will begin markup to 245 (this could take until August-November of 2024) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Options Play: QLYS Apr 19 2024 185.00 calls for around 3.35 Not financial advice ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QLYS trades similar to the rest of the cybersecurity names, so this will be a great supplement play to my main cyber longs PANW and CRWD. QLYS just has more affordable call premiums and can buy more time. Its setup is also more stable to support a more sustained run.
NASDAQ:QLYSLong
by JerryManders
6
QLYS (Long) - Ideal time for a cybersecurity betFundamentals With the Israel/Ukraine situation developing, countries and companies will certainly not mind some extra cybersecurity spending. Hence, companies like NASDAQ:QLYS are well-positioned to benefit Any company making new all-time highs during a challenging time in the markets should catch your interest. This one just did it on impressive earnings and with a substantial buying volume. I wish you could see the chart of revenue, which has grown by a consistent 20% year after year for the past decade (just a straight line up). Margins are fabulous with an 80% gross margin and a 23% profit margin . The firm is incredible at handling its own capital with an ROCE of 41.7% (the industry average is 8.9%). The ROCE figure means that the firm has grown 309% over the last 5 years while using the same amount of capital - highly efficient The firm has no debt (!) and earnings are expected to grow 10% next year. I could go on and on, but I know that you all degenerates are here for the charts. Just to say, if you are thinking about something longer-term, this is a perfect pick Technicals What else to say than to just to look at the chart setup Clean break on an earnings announcement. The base could be slightly better, but I do not feel like letting this one run away. RSI pointing higher, good volume, relative strength is high and the industry is driven by various robust tailwinds Strong growth, solid fundamentals and a lovely chart - William O'Neill would be proud Trade I entered the stock today; I wanted to wait for a better base, but I do not think this one will be waiting However, the weakness in the market might drag it down a bit and offer a better entry For the stoploss , I would suggest that if the stock falls back down back to the black line and below, that would be a clear sign of a failed breakout. Follow me for more analysis & Feel free to ask any questions you have, I am happy to help If you like my content, Please leave a like, comment or a donation, it motivates me to keep producing ideas, thank you :)
NASDAQ:QLYSLong
by jurajholik
Double Bottom/Multiple BottomsTargets 2 if QLYS can hang are possibly 167.5 to 185. Short interest is always high on this one. It appears the shorties wait for earnings as often it is not received well. If QLYS ever has a good earnings response, things could get, well, exciting. The red vertical dashed lines are earnings dates. Estmated earnings are 5-12. Possibly a good idea to keep that in mind )o: No recommendation. QLYS seems to have it's ups and downs for sure, but can have some great runs both ways
NASDAQ:QLYS
by lauralea
ABC BullishEarnings do not seem to go well for QLYS and it seems folks start getting nervous beforehand according to the chart. I did not look at earnings but it is obvious from the chart that it was not received well. The red vertical lines are earning announcement dates. Possibly this is why short interest is on the high side on this one as a rule. I guess the shorties just wait until earnings date and cover their shorts. But seems it recovers and goes back up, so possibly a good swing trade candidate. I would keep up with earnings though dates (o: Possible Targets 2 (T2) which are longer term targets are 177.5 to 195. It is usually best to focus on targets 1 for the time being. Long entry level is an at or above level. The bollinger bands are set on an 80 MA verses a 20 MA and when price pierces the upper of lower bands on this setting, there is an excellent chance price will reverse, at least to the midline or the 80 MA (moving average). Negative volume stays high on this one so there is interest. I just would be sure to sell before earnings (o: There is support at C but C can be retested and is not a given. Any pattern can fail. Targets are calculated using the AB leg of this pattern using Fib levels. A good place to put a stop is somewhere below C, but not AT C due to possible retest. Spinning tops and dojis are the last 6 days candle which represent indecision, The top does not look fantastic/Possible H&S/ but it does look as if support is being formed. Long with caution.. Not a recommendation.
NASDAQ:QLYS
by lauralea
Cup and HandleQLYX has broken out (barely) only experience a throwback.. There is usually a high short percent on this one. It is like they pick some stocks to routinely short and this is one, I am beginning to see why now as QLYS is down quite a bit today. CHKP is another in this sector they like to short. You can see the R this stock is fighting at the top of the cup..lots of tall upper wicks where bulls are trying to push price up while bears push it back down..I guess they are having fun..dunno (o: Long entry at break out level or above are pattern rules. I know some who enter with a break from the handle. Targets calculated using the depth of the cup which is 38.57 NV and OBV are high showing interest in QLYS. Stops are usually placed under the HL or MC/Mid cup.. Not a recommendation/just an observation If I wanted this stock, and I do not know yet, I would break my rules and buy at the HL. Not supposed to break my rules so just watching for now. I can not say I may not buy it if it reaches close to 111.. Practice helps us improve even if we do not do a transaction that day, just watch and learn. I do believe looking at charts over and over helps us improve. We start to see things we had not noticed before..important things. Practice helps us improve. I would rather be kicked by someone who practiced a thousand kicks once each, than by someone who practiced 1 kick 1000 times (o:
NASDAQ:QLYSLong
by lauralea
7
QUALYS Opportunity DailyHey traders, QUALYS is in a fake bearish trend with a large volume of purchases issued and traces made by sellers. By leaning on the TIMEFRAME M1 we see a marubozu with a return of purchase volume made it goes to the top of the comfort zone to go and test it. Strong possibility of breaking out the price then subsequently the zone to interfere in a new one and go to the highest that follows. With excess (on TIMEFRAME H1) Fake attempt at a test of the intermediate median of the ANDREWS PICHFORK range. Please LIKE & FOLLOW, thank you!
NASDAQ:QLYSShort
by stephanelibatd
Bullish Cypher X5QLYS has been in bear territor for a long time Not to long entry level at this second but was a few minutes ago I think Short is naturally high NV and OBV are also high Curious to see who will win this one Risky/earnings today amc Not a recommendation The Cypher was discovered by Darren Oglesbee and though it is technically an advanced pattern formation, it is often associated with and traded alongside harmonic patterns. It has specific Fibonacci measurements for each point within its structure. The B point retracement of the primary XA leg lies between 0.382 and 0.618, the C point should be a 1.272 to 1.414 projection of the primary XA leg and the D point should be a 0.786 retracement of XC. The first target would be the 382 retracement of CD and the second target the 618 retracement of CD.
NASDAQ:QLYSLong
by lauralea