$QQQ Analysis, Key Levels & Targets for Feb 19
ATH’s and 35EMA are in the trading range. That’s it.
Well at the Very bottom is the previous resistance that we broke above.
Red signal line here down below.
Let’s go
QQQ trade ideas
QQQ 3-Year Correction Overdue Since 2015 the Nasdaq Index has undergone approximately 25% corrections from all-time-highs every 3 years. Over this time period, the price has more or less respected the trend lines shown above. But perhaps a force more powerful than the trendline is the timeline.
The pattern repeats at roughly 39-month intervals from top to top:
May '12 - July '15 (1175 days)
pivot from 5/1/12 ATH, 12%* correction over 35 days
July '15 - October '18 (1170 days)
pivot from 7/20/15 ATH, 26% correction over 34 days
October '18 - November '21 (1148 days)
pivot from 10/1/18 ATH, 24% correction over 84 days
November '21 - February '25 (1176 days)
pivot from 11/22/21 ATH, 38%** correction over 324 days
February '25 - May '28
pivot from 2/18/25 ATH, ??% correction
If the pattern holds true, we were due a correction last week. My guess is we'll double-top December's ATH and then start the correction. How deep for how long is anyone's guess. Feels more like '21 insanity than '15 or '18 to me.
Notes:
*2012 (I believe) not yet representative of participation in the trendline pattern (still recovering from Great Recession)
**This particular correction was covid-anomolous (we were 24% above the channel already when we pivoted). This particular -38%, 324-day correction was more like 3-in-1: -22% in 97 days, -27% in 80 days, -24% in 59 days. You may get a better pattern predictor if you average the 3 moves, so -24% over 77 days. Alternatively, you can see it as two moves: an intial -22% move to bring it back within the channel, followed by a second -24% move to bring it to the bottom of the channel.
Looks longVariety of technical analysis tools point at two week upswing. Nothing is ever certain but this has a more than 50% probability with a more than 1.5 to 1 R. If you can trade at an average of 1.2R and 52% win rate you should go look at the math on that. Then compound that and you'll be astonished.
2/21/25 - $qqq - Pls read this and comment2/21/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:QQQ
Pls read this and comment
- i put my Schiff on the table
- guys. i'm working with a really wonky thesis and i need some comments, let's debate this
"the market has mostly crashed already"
- this has been a pretty asynchronous crash. aapl, nvda, msft... meta held the tape for a record period... they all are taking turns keeping vol in check
- and then under the surface, we have EPS reports and this has been the weirdest thing i've ever traded, experienced in 30 years. i have never felt like i'd just want to trade ex post dips and avoid necking out at all (with VERY few exceptions hello UBER and NXT- thank gawd for you :)
- so the thinking is, we're in an asynchronous crash. everything INCLUDING MAG7 is down 15-50% from the let's say last 6 months peaks. and so the index has managed vol. the machines. our overlords. whatever.
- so maybe we "crush" 5% from here. 10%? dude 10% is a thing of the past. i dumped my TQQQ puts today. i didn't expect them to cash. just insurance against my mega positions (which has become somewhat singular. nx-faking-t. nextracker NASDAQ:NXT )
- but let's get this real. are we getting gaslighted into a crash incoming when we're literally in the middle of it. new coronavirus BS coming out of "wuhan" we believe that chit again. come on. ppl. take off that N95, touch grass... think. think.
- am i going nuts? usually i'm the guy that goes nuts first. rings the bells. i'm lonely thinking this. tell me WHY i'm wrong if you disagree. i genuinely want to debate this.
- i'm picking winners here. getting situated in the non momo BS that has reported gains, generates cash, attractively valued.
- nxt HUGE size
- obtc, get the king at a 10% discount (use limits)
- uber
- glob (short term swing b/c OTD cucks gonna cuck didn't expect to trade or own this, but here i am, cleaning you all up)
- tsm
some others stuff.
but honestly. i'm here. i'm typing this. that's 90% of success. God. family. friends.
the rest are details.
be well. we'll crush it.
but if we read this tape right...
V
QQQ: Bearish Forecast & Bearish Scenario
The charts are full of distraction, disturbance and are a graveyard of fear and greed which shall not cloud our judgement on the current state of affairs in the QQQ pair price action which suggests a high likelihood of a coming move down.
❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
QQQ: Trend's 3 Frames of ReferenceTrend's Three Frames of Reference:
The Fibonacci channels in the chart are constructed based on the COVID low (March 2020) and the 2023 low, with a projection that aligns with the late 2021 top as a key reference point. This approach sets the direction of the Fibonacci channels in an upward-sloping trajectory, capturing the broader bullish trend while identifying key areas of support and resistance.
The trend structure follows a long-term ascending Fibonacci framework, where the lower blue regions (0.786, 0.618 levels) represent historical support zones, aligning with past market corrections.
The mid-range levels (0.5, 0.382) act as consolidation zones where price action frequently stabilizes before continuing its trend.
The uppermost red-orange zones (0.236 and above) highlight overextension zones, aligning with the late 2021 high, where the market previously faced strong resistance before entering a corrective phase in 2022.
By using the COVID low and the 2023 low as anchors, the Fibonacci channels effectively map the market’s trajectory and provide insight into potential future movements. The alignment with the late 2021 top further reinforces these levels as critical points for potential price reactions, making this an effective tool.
In this alternative Fibonacci channel configuration, the direction is adjusted to align with a steeper bullish trajectory, possibly emphasizing a different perspective on trend structure and momentum. The key anchors for the Fibonacci channels remain rooted in the 2023 low and recent higher highs, creating a more aggressively inclined channel structure.
This Fibonacci channel configuration differs from the previous ones by focusing on a shorter-term structure with a narrower range and downward-sloping alignment. It is anchored from the recent 2023 low to the subsequent high, with Fibonacci retracement levels applied to identify key support and resistance zones. Leaving this trend configuration is a signal that price goes for bigger range movement.
By utilizing three Fibonacci channel references, this method enhances price forecasting accuracy, confirms key support/resistance areas, and adapts to different trading styles. The combination of macro, momentum, and retracement-based analysis ensures that both investors and traders can make informed decisions based on multi-frame confluence zones.
Long-term investors should watch Configuration 1 for sustainable support levels. Momentum traders can rely on Configuration 2 for buying dips near 0.5 and selling near 0.236. Short-term traders should focus on Configuration 3 for managing pullbacks and breakout confirmations.
$QQQ Analysis, Key Levels & Targets for Feb 20
Not a terribly difficult trading range today.
ATH’s above us, 35EMA below, bottom of the implied move 535
Bearish divergence in strength. 30min 200MA likely on deck
Pretty bullish setup overall but overbought and bearish divergence. Low volume too which is driving me crazy but we don’t seem to get any sell off volume.
The 1hr 200MA is underneath the 50DMA (which is the 2hr 200MA) and that is a hidden bearish signal.
$QQQ Analysis, Key Levels & Targets for Feb 18
Alright so options for QQQ havn’t expanded out yet so this is the setup for 30D average volatility for today (tues), Wednesdays implied move is in the middle and Fridays Contract on the far right.
We closed last week just under ATH’s
Futures already gapping us over that but look how overbought we are here.
Top of the implied move on tomorrow’s contract 544
35EMA underneath us and we are still bullish there so look to that level as support
Looking bullish here - just overbought.
$QQQ RECAP of Last Week Feb 10-14
Last week was inflation data week and Monday and Tuesday we opened with a gap up and then stayed flat from there until CPI on Wednesday where we dropped down and filled the Monday gap and bounced on the 50 Day Moving Average.
After CPI (which came in HOTTT) and the bounce on the 50Day up and past the next two resistance levels. Thursday was a big day, followed with a continuation upward to close the week just under previous ATH’s
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Watching just the 35EMA and the 30min 200MA we stayed bullish the entire week there (meaning 35EMA (red line), above the 30min 200MA (blue line))
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Stupid Willy reading overbought but no red signal line yet.
QQQ - Another Decision timeI have no calls on this, just keeping my eye on these base channels and playing the ranges with options intraday.
End of February may signal a correction or the market continues for a blow off top and setting of higher support levels in case of a correction.
Healthy steps up, turning resistance into support.
I would prefer to consolidate at these levels to build confirmation of support levels.
Not financial advice, GTLA
2/12/25 - $qqq - Welp. I'm short.2/12/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:QQQ
Welp. I'm short.
- Back to 45% cash, i only like what i like and i've written about the names i would *like* to see get a bit of a beta-related-risk-off dump so i can put it back in at better pxs, CRYPTOCAP:BTC (thru OTC:OBTC ), NASDAQ:NXT , NYSE:UBER and $tsm.
- but look, i've written extensively about what concerns me here on the sequencing related to index, flows etc. so i won't rehash the message. the short here on Q's is nuanced and a bit more than a hedge, i'm defn calling BS.
- inflation leading indicators coming down. growth slowing. no print just yet. EPS prints in rear view and guidance has been mostly sucking w/ a few exceptions, so you see EPS this year being revised lower, multiples reflexively too... it takes time guys... the market isn't as fast as you'd imagine... and stock px drain as 10Y higher, DXY stronger and *surprise* for the moment, cash aint trash.
- so, do we go higher before some reset (and not a crash, those aren't allowed, remember). god knows. but seeing the mkt risk off on today's print tells me (similar to nvda) that market makers and by extension, flows... probably offsides and this wk expires need some help.
- DOGE is deflationary. Team orange can take a victory and "blame" brandon for mistakes if/when dip and call/ protest al sharpton style "rates r too dayum high" once this mini risk off occurs. and then march lows... april new year (do you know why they call it april fools day? look it up... jan 1 isn't really the new year if you're in the klub - which i'm not and will never be)... and we r off to the brrr and higher highs this year.
but everyone wants to extrapolate. nobody can handle the 1% draw downs. buckle up butter cups. if YTD has been tough for you, you're NGMI.
be prepared for all scenarios. hope for the best, plan for the worst. we're in the risk mgmt business, first and foremost.
V
QQQ Thrives Amidst Trump Administration's UnpredictabilityQQQ still bullish amid all of the chaos of Trump's first few weeks. Friday saw a high that was just a touch shy of a new ATH. Next week will give us a good idea what the future is, if we pull back we may be seeing a double top if you are bearish or we could make a new ATH and power on higher with bulls in control.
Elliott Wave View: Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) Extending HigherNasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) has broken to new all-time high suggesting the right side remains firmly bullish. The rally from 1.27.2025 low is in progress as a 5 waves with extension (nest). Up from 1.27.2025 low, wave 1 ended at 531.52 and pullback in wave 2 ended at 507.5. The ETF has extended higher in wave 3. Up from wave 2, wave ((i)) ended at 532.10. Pullback in wave ((ii)) unfolded as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave ((i)), wave (w) ended at 521.56, and wave (x) ended at 530.36. Wave (y) lower ended at 521.32 which also completed wave ((ii)) in higher degree.
The ETF has resumed higher in wave ((iii)). Up from wave ((ii)), wave i ended at 530.72 and pullback in wave ii ended at 527.22. Wave iii higher ended at 541.28 and pullback in wave iv ended at 536.04. Expect wave v to complete soon which should end wave (i) in higher degree. The ETF should then pullback in wave (ii) to correct cycle from 2.12.2025 low before it resumes higher. Near term, as far as pivot at 521.32 low stays intact, expect pullback to find support in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further upside.
what action I take when market open.This video will show you what I look at and my thought process when prepare for maket open.
Purpose of this video is to show how i make plan to take risk in first hour of market open.
example used is 5min&1min
1st. orb 5min
2nd. wait for breakout of 5min
3rd. use MA as (Support) of a trend to SCALP
ORB FIB levels i used is 0.5%(orb) 1.0% 1.5% 2.0%
Target is use orb breakout to target 2.0% fib levels as PriceTarget.
QQQ to Continue UptrendPrice has already Rejected 538.78 on Friday. Price has a previous higher low on the 1hr at 535 However I believe we will respect 530 as it A stronger level on the Weekly time Frame. Price should Reject 530 and continue to trend upwards. And Buy past 540, make at 539 and continue to trend upwards for a new 52 week high.
$QQQ Support and Resistance Areas?QQQ had a big bearish candle on Friday. If you look left on the chart there were 2 comparable recent days. On Dec 18, 2024, and Jan 7, 2025, both lead to further downside. On Dec 18, the decline before a rally was about 5.3% and the Jan 7 decline was around 4.9%. Friday’s decline was about 2.4%. “If” those declines are any guide, we could expect another 2.5% to 3% additional deterioration. Which portends a pullback to around 512 to 510. Think of those as areas of concern, not a prediction. I have also drawn in horizontal lines that “may” become areas of support or resistance. In addition, we are touching an area of upward sloping line (area) that has defined a series of higher lows over the last 4 weeks.
In summary, it is a good idea to have an open mind about any outcome over the next few days to weeks and simply look at these areas to see if they do indeed end up being turning points.
One more point, this is an index fund and as such looks at heavily weighted stocks. We are likely in a period of picking individual stocks that are leading and using this index simply as a guide to overall market health.
I hope that helps.
QQQ Stock Analysis & GEX Options Insights – Feb. 18Technical Analysis (TA) for QQQ
* Current Price Action: QQQ is in a strong uptrend, making higher highs and higher lows on the 1-hour timeframe. The price is approaching key resistance levels, making this a critical decision zone.
* Support & Resistance Levels:
* Immediate Resistance: $540 – A breakout could fuel further upside momentum.
* Next Resistance: $545 – Aligns with the 2nd Call Wall from GEX data.
* Major Resistance: $550 – A strong resistance level where price may struggle.
* First Support: $535 – If QQQ pulls back, this level could act as a bounce zone.
* Major Support: $527 – A break below this would shift the momentum bearish.
* Critical Breakdown Level: $520 – Losing this level would likely lead to increased selling pressure.
* Indicators:
* MACD: Showing bullish momentum, but there are signs of a possible slowdown.
* Stochastic RSI: Overbought, indicating a potential short-term pullback.
Options Flow & GEX Analysis
* GEX (Gamma Exposure):
* Highest Positive NetGEX / Call Resistance: $540 – QQQ is currently testing this level, a breakout would be bullish.
* 68.05% Call Wall: $545 – A major resistance where price may slow down.
* 62.58% Call Wall: $540 – Currently acting as resistance.
* Put Wall Support: $520 – The strongest downside support from options positioning.
* 3rd Put Wall: $510 – If QQQ breaks below this, further downside is likely.
* IV & Sentiment:
* IV Rank (IVR): 15.6 → Low implied volatility, making options relatively cheap.
* IVx Avg: 18.2 → A moderate volatility level.
* Options Sentiment: Puts = 33.8% → Some bearish sentiment in options flow, but not overwhelming.
Trade Setups
📈 Bullish Scenario (Breakout Play):
* Entry: Above $540 with strong volume.
* Target: $545, then $550 (Gamma Squeeze Potential).
* Stop Loss: Below $535.
📉 Bearish Scenario (Breakdown Play):
* Entry: Below $535.
* Target: $527 or $520 (Put Support).
* Stop Loss: Above $540.
Final Thoughts
* QQQ remains bullish but is testing key resistance at $540.
* A breakout above $540 could lead to a strong rally toward $545-$550.
* A failure to hold $535 might trigger a pullback to $527 or lower.
* Best Trade Approach: Monitor price action at $540 for a breakout confirmation or $535 for a breakdown before entering a trade.
🚨 This analysis is for educational purposes only. Trade responsibly and manage risk! 🚨
$QQQ Analysis, Key Levels & Targets for Feb 21
Today’s Trading range keeps us above the 30min 200MA.
We closed above the 35EMA, and that should always be the first level to watch. Support around 533-543
We do have a down gap just underneath ATH’s - watch that for resistance.
Nice 10$ spreads naturally today.
Red signal line to start, 35EMA still high above the 30min 200
Have fun today, y’all
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$QQQ Analysis, Key Levels & Targets for Day Traders Feb 14
We broke out above two resistance levels yesterday to close just underneath ATH’s.
35MEA is underneath the implied move which often signals too fast to soon and a pull back is normal before moving higher or flat while we wait for it to catch up.
30min 200MA is quite far underneath both days implied move and is looking flat. Momentum is not strong here but it is bullish.
Nasdaq Wants HigherPutting aside my personal beliefs on the current state of the economy (bad inflation and job figures for January combined with looming potential tariffs), The Nasdaq tape reads very bullish breaking out of this tight wedge formation (blue), if it can hold this breakout and continue to move upward, I believe we have a nice bull rally play to go long.
QQQ My Opinion! SELL!
My dear friends,
My technical analysis for QQQ is below:
The market is trading on 538.12 pivot level.
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bearish continuation.
Target - 527.72
Recommended Stop Loss - 544.30
About Used Indicators:
A pivot point is a technical analysis indicator, or calculations, used to determine the overall trend of the market over different time frames.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
QQQ bullflag breakoutQQQ has been consolidating above 501 for two months, price action showed bullflag was broken this past week.
