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Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1

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QQQ Sell to $497-501 Weekly Resistance for Buying opportunity A 52 week high was made on Monday, December 16 at $539 on QQQ . The fed Powell released the news he’s cutting rates by a quarter of a percent which caused the market to plummet ,Banks also manipulating the market to get into these buying opportunities. We are currently failing to break above 520 , also struggling to fully break below 515 . We will continue to sell down once we pass 515 . Looking at my chart on the weekly timeframe appears is 501-497 is the actual resistance that we are heading to now. It may look like 515 is the resistance, but in all actuality, it does not appear to be a Stronger demand zone than 500 to 497. Once we get here, look for buying opportunities at the new year will bring in New yearly, highs, and new yearly lows. For now, we should be in puts to $500.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by MuggaMatrix
QQQ - Correction Underway After Recent HighsThe QQQ is currently undergoing a corrective move after reaching a recent high of around 540 USD. The price has retraced sharply from this level, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment as sellers begin to dominate. Key Levels Support Zones: Immediate support can be seen around 519 USD, with more significant zones near 500 and 480 USD, which aligns with previous price consolidation. Market Structure After a strong upward move, the price has entered a consolidation phase, with lower highs indicating the start of a pullback. Sellers have gained control, as evidenced by the recent price action. Volume The CVD is deeply negative, highlighting strong selling pressure in the current market phase. This suggests that while price holds near key support, bearish momentum remains high, and we may see further downside if these levels don't hold. Outlook Watch for price action around the current support. If this level breaks convincingly (what has to be expected, regarding the highly negative momentum), we could see a deeper retracement toward 500 USD. On the other hand, a strong bounce from current levels, might signal a resumption of the bullish trend. The two different pathways show the most likely outlooks: The green path shows the best bullish case, while the blue path seems to have a higher likelihood, but therefore offers a better RRR for future long positions.
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by Ochlokrat
1
QQQ Crash Technical Analysis (TA) for Dec. 19Market Overview The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) experienced a significant market drop today, reflecting a bearish sentiment in technology-heavy indices. The broader sell-off has pushed QQQ down to critical technical levels, where a combination of support zones and gamma exposure levels could offer insights for the next trading sessions. Market Structure Analysis * Daily Chart: QQQ broke below its recent upward channel support at $525, with today's close significantly below the 9-EMA and 21-EMA, signaling bearish momentum. * Hourly Chart: A sharp sell-off occurred during today's session, with a brief recovery toward $517. However, the current volume profile indicates strong selling pressure near the $525 resistance. Supply and Demand Zones * Immediate Resistance Zones: * $525.60: Prior support turned resistance, aligning with the gamma exposure wall and heavy put wall. * $533.14: Additional resistance, coinciding with the upper range of today’s intraday high. * Support Zones: * $515: Intraday low support aligning with the highest negative gamma exposure (NETGEX) level. * $507 and $505: Key demand zones visible from previous consolidations and gamma support. Order Blocks and Key Levels * Bearish Order Block: $525 to $533 range has seen consistent selling pressure, forming a robust resistance. * Bullish Rejection Level: $512-$515 acts as a psychological support zone. Key Indicators * MACD: The MACD on both daily and hourly charts has crossed bearishly, with increasing momentum to the downside. * RSI: Hourly RSI has entered oversold territory (~30), indicating a possible short-term bounce. * EMAs (9 & 21): The price remains significantly below both EMAs on all timeframes, confirming the bearish bias. Gamma Exposure (GEX) and Options Activity * Put Wall: The $519 level represents the highest concentration of puts, acting as immediate resistance. * Gamma Exposure (GEX): * Negative GEX levels between $515 and $520 amplify downward pressure. * Above $525, calls dominate, potentially limiting further upside. Scalping vs. Swing Outlook * Scalping Strategy: * Look for short entries near $525 with tight stop losses above $526. * Potential target zones: $517, $515, and $512. * Swing Strategy: * Wait for confirmation of a close above $525 to consider bullish recovery. * Downside swing target: $505 if $512 support breaks. Actionable Suggestions 1. Short Setup: * Entry: Near $525. * Stop-Loss: Above $526. * Target: $515, $507. 2. Bullish Setup: * Entry: On confirmation above $525. * Stop-Loss: Below $520. * Target: $533. Conclusion QQQ is in a precarious technical position, reflecting broader market weakness. A further break below $512 could accelerate the downtrend, while a reclaim of $525 could initiate a short-term recovery. Disclaimer This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk accordingly before making trading decisions.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by BullBearInsights
12/3/24 - $qqq - quick comment on "risk"- by now it should be obvious that this isn't "normal" (hasn't been for over a decade, but esp in the last year). M2 turned positive and risk assets followed especially as labor mkt data started "allowing" fed to cut - but remember, inflation gauges are heading higher. oil probably only has one direction (energy is a big driver) and consumers are ape'ing on basically everything w/ credit card debt exploding higher. amazing! - what concerns me, though is this next fed mtg... 1/ any "cuts" won't really move the needle in terms of truly looser monetary policy 2/ mkts are already at nosebleed highs (let's just use PE e.g. 2-3% vs. 10Y rates) 3/ any indication that the fed is going to not keep with the current programming (b/c let's face it - they're certainly - well who really knows but the dark forces from h3ll - going to accelerate the print bc it's not necessary, look at the mkts!)... which means the only possible direction is possibly more restrictive 4/ now we ARE in year end. there are technically no -ve catalysts on the horizon so to speak, and the mkts need a reason to go down, not up. so the direction holds. i'm happy holding a big allo of BTC, NXT, TSM, META and NVDA and some select other stuff in that order. it's working well and i genuinely think the valuations for these are (ironically) decent 5/ but beware. that if the mkt starts to get the picture of what i'm spelling out above... it won't be next week where you get a pullback (i'm not calling for something extreme, but 5-10% will cause tears for a lot of leveraged low IQ types and zero them quickly)... but i'm prepared with a healthy cash balance, a bunch of shorts (today it's PLTR in size, SG which i've been monetizing a bit, NN, SMR also monetizing a bit and some B2B stuff that just got too expensive like TEAM which i actually like but i digress). just good to be aware of where we're at. try typing in "QQQ/M2" into trading view and look at monthly or 3M candles. note anything interesting? it's best to normalize by money supply one way or another. when and where did we last reach these levels ;) stay vigilant and don't drink too much. the party continues but it's good to remember the exit than be woken up with some unfortunate pictures of your PnL. could have, should have. V
NASDAQ:QQQ
by VROCKSTAR
[GEX] levels for QQQFirst, let’s examine what we see on our chart using options indicators: Summarizing the GEX levels through December 26, we have a strong call wall at around 540. If price can break above and hold that level, it could easily pave the way toward 550. However, if we’re expecting a Christmas selloff after Friday’s close, this bearish assumption might prove worthwhile. This brings up a point that often comes up: “How do I interpret whether the optoins indicator is bullish or bearish?” There’s no such definitive signal! The levels and options metrics show certain conditions, but no one can tell you exactly what will happen next. This is where you need to have a directional hypothesis. Once you have it, the indicators can help you fine-tune your positioning, identify realistic targets, and select viable legs—but they won’t decide your directional stance for you. For example, while everything may look bullish, let’s say you have a contrarian bearish view. Then you can see where it makes sense to position yourself. Test Case Chosen: 8x QQQ Dec 24th – Dec 26th 525 Calendar Put Spread Max Loss: $216 Max Profit: $1,685 PoP: 45% Why not?
NASDAQ:QQQ
by TanukiTrade
(GET READY) QQQ's Expected move for FOMCAll right so we are right at the 35 EMA you could see that we’ve had a pretty strong rally along that level since the beginning of December we did drop underneath that for two trading days but then we got back above it with CPI and continue to rally so 35 EMA huge level right in the middle of our trading range. The implied move for today is between 530 and 542 for tomorrow. It’s 528 to 543 and four the 30 day average 527 to 545 and that 35 EMA is the big level in our trading range underneath that we do have that up gap from Monday up and then consolidated back to the 35 EMA for FOMC. Five 3915 is where we have previous all-time highs. That is a little more than halfway up our implied move then 542 is the top of the implied move today 543 tomorrow underneath us that gap the bottom of that gap is 530. That is also the bottom of our implied move 528 is the bottom of the implied move tomorrow on Thursday and we have that 30 minute underneath all of that and we also do have that gap from last Friday that is sitting right on top of that 30 minute 200 moving average as well Sorry that this is just one lot run-on sentence today. I’m used to making the videos and just speaking it out and this is speech to text. Hope y’all can make out what I’m saying. Lol
NASDAQ:QQQ
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
QQQ: Technical Analysis (TA) & GEX Insights for Dec. 181. Daily Chart (1D) * Trend: QQQ continues its uptrend within a rising channel. The price has broken through upper resistance and is testing the top of the channel. * Support/Resistance: * Immediate Support: 525.60 * Major Support: 513.30 * Resistance Zone: 539.15 (current high) * Indicators: * MACD: Bullish momentum but signs of flattening, suggesting a possible slowdown. * Volume: Decreasing slightly as price rises, which may indicate weaker buying pressure. Outlook (Daily): * Bullish Scenario: If QQQ holds above 535, a retest of 539-540 is possible. * Bearish Scenario: A break below 535 could see a retracement to 525. 2. Hourly Chart (1H) * Trend: Short-term weakening with signs of rejection near 539. The price is currently pulling back to test the mid-channel support. * Support/Resistance: * Support: 533.10 (current area), followed by 530.00 * Resistance: 538.80, 539.15 * Indicators: * MACD: Bearish crossover forming, indicating momentum shift to downside. * Volume: Increased selling pressure near resistance zones. Outlook (Hourly): * A pullback to 533 is likely, with potential for further downside to 530 if support breaks. 3. GEX Analysis * Gamma Walls: * 535: Highest negative NETGEX (PUT Support Zone). Breaking below this could accelerate selling pressure. * 539: Small resistance wall. * 529: Positive Gamma Call Wall indicating strong support. * Options Oscillator : * IVR: 16.6 – Low implied volatility. * GEX: Mixed bias with PUTS at 21.3% dominance. * Interpretation: * Market makers are hedging around 535. A break below could trigger larger put-side moves to 532 or 529. Trade Outlook: * Scalping: * Bullish Setup: Long at 533 with stop-loss at 530 and target 538. * Bearish Setup: Short below 533 targeting 530 or 529. * Swing Trade: Watch for confirmed rejection at 539 or strong support at 533 for trend continuation setups. Conclusion: QQQ is showing short-term weakness while remaining within a broader uptrend. Key levels to watch are 535 for support and 539 as resistance. Traders should monitor Gamma exposure around 535 for directional bias. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk appropriately.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by BullBearInsights
QQQ Near Key Resistance! Will Bulls Hold the Momentum? 1. Daily Chart Analysis (1D): * Trend: QQQ is continuing its strong bullish trend and trading within an ascending channel. * Support and Resistance Levels: * Support: 533.21 (key level to hold the uptrend). * Resistance: 539.15 (recent high and channel top). * Momentum Indicators: * MACD is bullish and expanding, suggesting upward momentum. * Volume has been rising with the upward move, signaling strength in buying. Outlook:
Bulls remain in control, but QQQ is testing the top of the channel. Watch for consolidation or rejection near 539.15. 2. 1-Hour Chart Analysis (1H): * Trend: Strong intraday uptrend but showing initial signs of slowing. * Support and Resistance Levels: * Support: 533.21 (near-term intraday support). * Resistance: 540 (psychological level and Gamma Wall). * Momentum Indicators: * MACD shows divergence; histogram is weakening, suggesting a potential pause or pullback. * Volume is tapering slightly as price tests resistance. Outlook:
A break above 540 could trigger another leg up. Failure to hold 533.21 may lead to a pullback toward 531. 3. GEX Analysis (Options Levels): * Key Observations: * Call Walls: 540 (2nd Call Wall) and 539 (highest positive Gamma/Call Resistance). * Put Support: 531 (Gamma Put Wall). * Options Oscillator: IVR at 12.9%, and Puts are only at 12.2% compared to heavy Calls at resistance. Outlook:
With Gamma Resistance at 539 and 540, QQQ needs strong buying pressure to break higher. Weakness may lead to a test of 533–531. 4. Suggested Trade Setups: Scalping Trade: * Bullish Setup: Buy 540 Call for short scalps if QQQ breaks above 540 with strong volume. * Bearish Setup: Buy 533 Put for a quick trade if price rejects 539 and fails below 533.21. Swing/Day Trade: * Bullish Setup: If QQQ closes above 540, consider a swing trade with 545 Calls expiring this week. * Bearish Setup: If QQQ fails 533 and closes below, target the downside with 530 Puts for a day trade. 5. Key Notes: * Bias: Bullish but cautious near resistance at 540. * Levels to Watch: * Breakout Level: 540. * Pullback Support: 533–531. * Trade Ideas: Follow volume and price action confirmation at these levels. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk before trading.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by BullBearInsights
2
Maximize Your Gains: QQQ Looks Strong for Next WeekRecent Performance: The Invesco QQQ Trust has shown remarkable bullish momentum, recently hitting an all-time high while other indices like the Dow and Russell have struggled. In contrast, the S&P 500 has moved sideways, highlighting QQQ's dominance, primarily powered by robust technology sector performance. - Key Insights: Maintaining support above 526.72 is critical for QQQ's potential gains next week. The market sentiment leans positive, especially with anticipated rebounds in small-cap stocks and ongoing strength in tech stocks. Investors should focus on the broader patterns in the tech sector as well as relevant economic indicators that could impact performance. - Expert Analysis: Market experts emphasize the importance of QQQ staying above its support levels, particularly the significant level of 526.72. They anticipate that if QQQ holds this level, it could pave the way for additional upside, correlating positively with small-cap stocks as they potentially rebound. The resilience in leading technology stocks reinforces a bullish sentiment for QQQ going forward. - Price Targets: For next week, targets and stops are outlined as follows: - Next week targets: T1: 533.36, T2: 538.70 - Stop levels: S1: 526.72, S2: 524.04 - News Impact: Recent earnings reports from major tech players like Broadcom have contributed to the bullish momentum in QQQ, underlining the index's sensitivity to sector-specific news. The broader economic landscape also remains relevant, with macroeconomic indicators influencing market sentiment. As QQQ continues to capitalize on positive developments within the tech sector, investors should stay alert to both stock-specific performance and overall market trends.
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by CrowdWisdomTrading
The chart reflects bullish price action supported by key elementDetailed Analysis of the Chart: Yellow Trend Line (Bullish Bias): Price remains in a clear uptrend (yellow lines), moving consistently higher while respecting the ascending support trend line. This bullish trend is reinforced by multiple Bullish Fair Value Gaps (FVG) that acted as strong support zones for upward momentum. Volume Observations: Volume increases during significant upward movements (e.g., 3.47M, 3.755M), indicating institutional support for price at these levels. However, volume slightly declines near the hammer candle at a recent high, signaling potential exhaustion. Key Levels: . 50 Fibonacci Extension: Price is approaching this level, which may act as a short-term resistance. If price fails to break above this extension, a pullback to test previous Bullish FVG zones is likely. Red Trend Line (Bearish Scenario): If price breaks below the yellow uptrend and Monday’s open confirms bearish momentum, the red trend line highlights a potential reversal setup. A Bearish FVG forming after this breakdown would provide confluence for short entries upon a retest of the red FVG. Hammer Candle: The recent hammer at a high could signify a potential reversal signal. This often occurs when buyers fail to push prices higher, allowing sellers to gain control. Bias Sentiment for Monday’s Open Scenario 1: Bullish Continuation (Primary Bias) If price respects the yellow trend line and maintains its bullish structure, expect a continuation upward. A break above the .50 Fibonacci Extension would confirm this sentiment. Entry Idea: Look for long positions near the bullish FVG zones or upon a clean break of recent highs. Scenario 2: Bearish Reversal (Secondary Bias) If price opens bearish and breaks below the yellow uptrend, the focus shifts to the red trend line and the Bearish FVG retest. Entry Idea: Wait for a Bearish FVG to form on a pullback and consider short positions on a confirmed retest for lower liquidity zones. Summary Primary Bias: Bullish continuation with price maintaining the yellow uptrend. Secondary Bias: A break of the yellow trend line signals bearish momentum, with the red trend line and Bearish FVG retest as confluence for short positions. Key Focus: Monitor price action near the yellow trend line support, .50 Fibonacci Extension, and any bearish signals (FVG) if Monday opens weak. Come back Monday at 9am for a market and chart update.
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by CapitalGainz33
QQQ at a Critical Level! Key Trade and GEX Insights for Dec. 16 1. Technical Analysis (TA): Daily Chart (Longer Timeframe): * Trend: QQQ is in an uptrend but showing a rising wedge pattern, which can indicate a potential pullback if broken. * Key Resistance: * 533: Current high; price is testing this level. * A breakout could lead QQQ to test 536–540. * Key Support: * 525: First support area aligned with horizontal structure. * 522: Second critical support. 1-Hour Chart (Shorter Timeframe): * QQQ is consolidating near resistance levels and forming a wedge. * Volume: Decreasing slightly, which indicates hesitation at higher levels. * MACD: Mixed momentum; slight bearish divergence on the 1H timeframe. 2. GEX Analysis for QQQ (Options Insights): Key GEX Levels: * Highest Positive Gamma (CALL Wall): * 530: Strongest resistance area where upward moves may slow or reverse. * 534–536: Additional resistance from the 2nd and 3rd CALL Walls. * PUT Wall Support: * 525: Significant support where price may stabilize if it declines. * 522: Acts as the next strong support level. Options Sentiment: * IVR: 5.8% – Very low implied volatility, meaning options are cheap. * PUTs: 14.8% – Limited PUT positioning shows low bearish pressure. 3. Trade Setups (Options and Trading): Bearish Setup (Short Bias): * Entry: Rejection near the 530 CALL Wall. * Target: * First target: 525 PUT Wall. * Extended target: 522 PUT Wall. * Stop-Loss: Above 534. * Option Strategy: * Bear Put Spread: Buy 530 PUT, Sell 525 PUT. Bullish Setup (Short-Term): * Entry: Break and close above 530 with strong volume. * Target: 533–536 CALL resistance. * Stop-Loss: Below 527. * Option Strategy: * Bull Call Spread: Buy 530 CALL, Sell 536 CALL. 4. Directional Bias: * Tomorrow: QQQ may face rejection near 530 due to CALL wall resistance. A pullback to 525 is likely if volume weakens. * Next Week: * Watch for a breakout above 530 for a bullish continuation. * A breakdown below 525 opens up 522 as the next downside target. Key Levels to Watch: * Resistance: 530, 533–536. * Support: 525, 522. Final Thoughts: Combine price action signals with GEX levels to guide trades. Options setups can focus on PUT spreads for bearish moves or CALL spreads for bullish breakouts. 🚀 Short Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk before trading.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by BullBearInsights
Trading Timeframes: Measured Moves and ContextIn the previous post, we introduced the concept of measured moves, a structured framework for estimating future price behavior. This method is based on the observation that each swing move tends to be similar in size to the previous one, assuming average price volatility remains consistent. While not exact, this approach offers a practical way to approximate the potential extension of a swing move. A common question that arises is: which timeframe should you use for measured moves, and how do you choose the correct swing move? These questions open up a completely different and important topic. Imagine analyzing a chart across three timeframes: daily, weekly, and monthly. You’ve projected a viable measured move on each chart. Now, ask yourself: which projection is the correct one? Where is the move most likely to play out? Daily Weekly Monthly The reality is that there is no singular “correct” answer. The appropriate measurement depends entirely on your purpose as a trader, the timeframe you operate in, and trading style. The Fractal Nature of Price Action Price action is fractal by nature. Regardless of whether you’re observing a 30-minute chart, a daily chart, or a weekly chart, the price displayed is the same in real time. However, the purpose of charts is to provide context. Each timeframe offers a unique perspective on how price has developed. For example, a 5-minute chart may reveal details about intraday movements while a daily chart condenses those details into broader a broader structure and context. These perspectives may align or contradict one another, they can confirm or challenge your biases. The key takeaway is that charts and timeframes are tools to contextualize price, not definitive answers. Defining Your Trading Timeframe To navigate the apparent contradictions between timeframes, start by defining your trading timeframe. This is where you analyze price structure, execute trades and define holding periods. This will answer the opening question: measured moves and other tools should in preference align with your trading timeframe. In case one wants to consider context, for various reasons, then multiple timeframes can be utilized. These act as a complement, not replacement. Here’s how different timeframes can be used for context. Higher timeframe: Moving one timeframe up will compress the price data, providing a broader context, but at the expense of detail. Lower Timeframe: Moving one timeframe down will reveal intricate details, but can introduce excessive noise. The balance between these components should match your trading style. Without a clear and defined approach, there is a risk of confusion and contradictory biases. The Concept of "Moving in Twos" Another, more anecdotal observation in price movement is the idea of “moving in twos.” This concept suggests that price often moves in sequences of two swings: an impulse move, followed with a pullback, which then repeats. There tends to be some price disruption after this has played out, but does not always imply that trend movement must stop after two moves. However, measured moves tend to align more reliably with these sequences. While not a scientifically validated principle, this concept has been discussed by traders such as Al Brooks, Mack and more. It provides a practical heuristic for applying measured moves more consistently. Practical Application To apply these ideas, consider the following: Define your trading timeframe. Use it as the primary basis for your measured move projections. If needed, incorporate one higher or lower timeframe to balance context and detail. However, these additional perspectives should not overrule your primary focus. Think in terms of “moving in twos.” Use this concept to locate sequences. This post was about the relationship between timeframes and the fractal nature of price action. The focus is on our role as traders and how we decide to operate, rather than absolute answers. This might be clear to most, but if not, take some time to think about and define your trading style.
NASDAQ:QQQEducation
by StockLeave
QQQ My Opinion! SELL! My dear followers, This is my opinion on the QQQ next move: The asset is approaching an important pivot point 530.50 Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear short signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bearish trend of the market. Goal - 520.05 About Used Indicators: For more efficient signals, super-trend is used in combination with other indicators like Pivot Points. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by AnabelSignals
8
QqqSo there is 4 major sectors that Drive the QQQ and tech overall.. I like to know what the sectors are doing/showing to get an edge on where QQQ is headed. Imagine QQQ being a car, and each sector is important part to that car (Transmission, Engine) Here are the 4 sectors and 2 of the biggest names in each sector XLK -Msft , Aapl XLC - Meta, Googl, Nflx SMH - NVDA , TSM XLY - AMZN, TSLA Qqq weekly chart (Log scale) Price is at the top of a 16yr channel. We tagged the top back in July high and most recently right after trump election rally; both time price got smacked down. The only time price has broke. Out of this channel was with the stimulus liquidity back in 2021. Daily chart shows a rising wedge at the top of the weekly channel If we were to trade inside this wedge then then the top is a around 512. Lets say we we broke out of the rising wedge and pushed back up to the weekly channel, that move would take us to a new high of 520 where we would then sell again. Now let's say we break to the downside of this wedge , that correction would be 10% and would pullback to 460 price action minimum. Maximum we target weekly channel bottom around 390- 400. Lets start with XLK, this chart mirrors QQQ the most Daily chart similar rising wedge pattern here Bearish below 228. Below 228 and the corr3ction has started. NASDAQ:AAPL has been keeping this propped up nicely but now aapl is at a brick wall IMO Here's aapl chart weekly Top of trendline and resistance at 237. More importantly is aapl 4 hour money flow just went off.. The thing about indicators is you have to know which ones work well with which stocks and time frame and aapl 4hour Mfi is about 80% reliable and this one is telling me SELL. So back to XLK 2hour chart and you can see that this week we will either have a double top below 228 or a pennant.. I'm thinking sell early since aapl is at resistance then let job's decide later .. if they do prop it will be more from msft than aapl. XLC Daily chart that shows rally from 2022 lows. Price has stayed contained inside channel up until Nflx rally + Trump election.. Now we are outside channel but trading inside a baby wedge. I think for the month of December this sector will double to 88-91 price action.. Daily MFI just lit up and weekly candle outside Bband XLY Weekly chart (Log scale) Riding the top of its Bbands near channel but price has room for 230 if it wants. Weekly candle is now 14% extended from its 20sma; when this happens usually within the course of the next 4-6weeks price pulls back to test the weekly 20sma. Daily chart If price breaks back below 220 then we began a pullback to 212 or previous ATH from 2021. Below 212 and it's a double to back to 205 Lastly is Chip sector NASDAQ:SMH Weekly chart (Log scale) Price went parabolic back in 2020 from the supply chain issues and broke above 10yr resistance before correcting back inside. Fast forward and it looks like deja vu all over again. Price is hovering right at trendline and if we fall back inside that would mean a nasty year/years ahead for chips Close up of the weekly, more immediately looks like price is headed back to its 2 year trendline support around 220 Daily chart.. pretty simple here. Descending triangle that will flush below 237 but could turn into a double bottom over 248 Over 248 (50sma) and we close gap at 260 and retest rising wedge The crash scenario for chips is if SMH loses 200.00 price. But I think It's a when not if. In the mean time look for the pullback to 215-220 even if we bounce to 260 . So to sum it up For tech we are either Extended at a brick wall or outright bearish.. Nothing looks like a buy and swing to me.. you may see fawkery until they decide to break the wedge on Qqq.. what do I mean by Fawkery? Well since aapl is at resistance and let's say they don't want a full sell on XLK yet, they may prop up Msft with some fake news/Upgrade and this keeps XLK above its 20sma. I'm looking for a sell on Qqq this week and for the wedge to be broken to the down side. My immediate target first 2 weeks of Dec is 484
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by ContraryTrader
17
GEX Analysis for QQQ-Dec. 13,2024Current Price: $529.39 IVR: 5.7 IVx Average: 15.5 Options Sentiment: Neutral-to-bearish with 18.4% in Puts. Key Levels: Resistance: $531.00: 2nd CALL Wall (Key resistance level). $533.00: 3rd CALL Wall and potential breakout target. $534.00: Extended resistance zone (requires strong volume for continuation). Support: $528.00: HVL (1DTE Level and key support for the day). $526.00: Highest Negative NETGEX / PUT Wall (Important bearish target). $525.00: 2nd PUT Wall, critical support zone. Sentiment & Projection: QQQ is currently facing resistance near $531.00. A breakout above this level could drive prices toward $533.00. If the price fails to hold $528.00, bearish momentum might test $526.00 and $525.00. Trading Strategies: Bullish: Entry Above: $531.50 (Confirmation of breakout). Target: $533.00, $534.00. Stop Loss: $530.00. Bearish: Entry Below: $528.00. Target: $526.00, $525.00. Stop Loss: $529.50. Reminder: Always verify IVR and IVx for live updates before entering trades. Adjust your strategy to account for the latest market conditions. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. Always perform your own research before trading.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by BullBearInsights
QQQ Analysis: Navigating Key Levels w/ GEX Insights for Dec. 12Overview of GEX Levels * Resistance Levels: * $530: Highest positive NETGEX, indicating a critical resistance level for tomorrow's trading. Price is expected to face selling pressure here if approached. * $533: GEX9, representing a medium-term resistance zone. * Support Levels: * $528: GEX8, providing a notable support level for intraday pullbacks. * $526: HVL (Highest Volume Level), a strong support zone based on high trading activity. Holding above this level will maintain bullish sentiment. Options Oscillator Indicator Insights * IVR (Implied Volatility Rank): 4 (low volatility rank). * Indicates a relatively low implied volatility environment, suggesting limited price movement. Suitable for range-bound strategies. * IVx Avg: 15.6. * Implies current implied volatility is near its average, favoring delta-neutral or conservative strategies. * Put$/Call$ Ratio: 12.6% skewed towards calls. * Demonstrates bullish sentiment with stronger call positioning, aligning with a potential upward move. Technical Setup * The price action is near the critical resistance zone at $530, with significant support at $526. A breakout above $530 could trigger bullish momentum toward $533. However, failure to hold $526 may lead to retesting lower GEX levels like $524. Options Trading Strategy * Bullish Play: * Buy QQQ Dec 15, 2024, $530 Calls if price breaks and holds above $530. Target: $533; Stop: $528. * Neutral Play: * Sell QQQ Dec 15, 2024, $530 Calls and buy $535 Calls (credit spread) if price consolidates below $530. This strategy takes advantage of time decay while anticipating limited movement. * Bearish Play: * Buy QQQ Dec 15, 2024, $526 Puts if price falls below $526 with volume. Target: $524; Stop: $528. Conclusion
QQQ is positioned for a critical test of $530, with clear levels outlined by GEX and options sentiment. Traders should watch for breakout or rejection at resistance, as well as strong support at $526 for intraday setups. Utilize options strategies to align with market direction and volatility. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by BullBearInsights
QQQ: TA with Gamma Exposure (GEX) Levels and Price Action1. Key Levels Identified: * Highest Positive NETGEX (Call Resistance): $530 * This level indicates significant call interest. If the price approaches this level, it could act as resistance due to hedging-related activity by options market makers. * HVL (Hedging Volatility Level): $521 * A key pivot area where hedging activity is concentrated. The price often consolidates or reacts near this level. * Put Walls: * 3rd PUT Wall: $515 (-32.07% Gamma Exposure) * A moderate support zone where put interest intensifies. Market makers may hedge around this level, reducing downside momentum. * 2nd PUT Wall: $505 (-47.53% Gamma Exposure) * A stronger support area. If breached, it may lead to higher volatility and stronger downward momentum. * 1st PUT Wall: $500 (-43.07% Gamma Exposure) * Acts as a critical support zone. Breaching this level could signal a bearish breakout. 1. Price Action: * The price is currently around $520, sitting near the HVL. This indicates a balancing point between bullish and bearish hedging flows. * The downward sloping trendline suggests a short-term bearish bias, with potential for further downside if the price breaks below $515. Technical Indicators Analysis: 1. MACD: * The MACD histogram is showing bearish momentum, with the signal line crossing below the MACD line. This supports a continuation of the bearish trend. 2. Stochastic RSI: * Oversold conditions suggest the possibility of a short-term bounce. Watch for crossovers to confirm any bullish reversal. 3. Trendlines: * The chart displays a descending trendline intersecting around $525. A break above this trendline could signal a bullish reversal. * Support trendline converges near $505, aligning with the 2nd PUT Wall. Options Strategy Plan: 1. Bullish Scenario: * If QQQ breaks above $525: * Call Option Entry: Strike price at $530, expiration within 1-2 weeks. * Target: $530 (resistance level). * Stop-Loss: $520. 2. Bearish Scenario: * If QQQ breaks below $515: * Put Option Entry: Strike price at $505, expiration within 1-2 weeks. * Target: $505 (support level). * Stop-Loss: $518. 3. Neutral/Hedging Play: * For range-bound movement between $515 and $525: * Iron Condor Strategy: * Sell a call at $530 and a put at $510. * Buy a call at $535 and a put at $505 to limit risk. Recommendation for Expiration Date: * Short-Term Expiry: Use 1-2 weeks for momentum-based trades, especially when targeting sharp moves near support or resistance levels. * Longer Expiry (2+ weeks): Ideal for breakout plays to allow time for the move to materialize. Summary: * QQQ is at a pivotal point near $520. Watch for a breakout above $525 for a bullish setup or a breakdown below $515 for bearish momentum. * Gamma levels provide clear support/resistance zones, enhancing precision in trade planning. * Use MACD and Stochastic RSI for confirmation of directional bias. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making trading decisions.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by BullBearInsights
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