QQQ Dancing on a High Wire $422.93: Golden Genesis fib and top?=QQQ is dancing on a high wire, a Golden Genesis fib at $422.93
Failure here could indicate top is in, so this is a key level here.
Just below is a fib confluence at $418, last stop before SERIOUS dip.
It is PROBABLE that we orbit this fib for a while.
It is POSSIBLE to bounce here and keep going up.
It is PLAUSIBLE a bull trap / distribution is done.
Here is a snapshot of the Genesis Sequence for the Q's:
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QQQ trade ideas
$QQQ Longer ViewpointNASDAQ:QQQ is lagging behind AMEX:SPY and has not reclaimed ATH ' yet .'
Looking at the weekly time frame, we can note that NASDAQ:QQQ has been bouncing off the trendline that started back in JAN 2023.
It has touched and bounced off that trendline 3x so far:
-MARCH 2023
-OCTOBER 2023
-AUGUST 2024
Each time it bounced, it ran for approximately 100pts + and took roughly 124 - 140 days before consolidation and/or a correction / retracement / pullback occurred.
From a technical standpoint, NASDAQ:QQQ will attempt at All Time Highs (ATH) at $503.52 again. We have to be conscience of the divergence between AMEX:SPY and $QQQ. AMEX:SPY has already made a new ATH while NASDAQ:QQQ is lagging behind.
If ATH is broken on NASDAQ:QQQ and price move similarly to the last two weekly trendline bounce, then price could reach $528 and some change before possible consolidation and/or a correction / retracement / pullback occurred with a timeline of around mid-December.
Failure to reclaim and/or break ATH can cause NASDAQ:QQQ to return back to the trendline.
This is NOT financial advice but an opinion.
QQQ breaks above downward trendQQQ reverses after massive selloff and goes into bullish rebound
Thursday Oct 1 saw massive sell off on high volume, signals reversal coming
confirmation of reversal came Friday Oct 4 when it broke the trend and held above
Gap fill on Friday morning was quickly followed by rally staying above downward trend entire day.
Made an entry at 484 expecting more buying to come
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QQQ expecting some down move before next move up. QQQ expecting some down move before next move up.
This is what I found in most bullish and bearish retracements , once you get 100% retracement of up or down move then next level is normally 1.618. If it retrace up to 50% after 100% then it's even more bullish, if it goes under 50% after 100% then it's super bearish. Have fun finding 50-100% fib retracements.
Top 5 Weekly Trade Ideas #2 - QQQ S/R Flip + Trend TestQQQ is similar to SPY/ES as usual. The $485 level has proven to be important, bulls have been holding it on every retest since it broke above last week. In addition we have a minor downtrend that could lead to a breakout, but also have the ascending channel/wedge.
The trendlines may help determine direction, but 485 is the most important to me and is the simplest way to approach this trade. Bullish above, bearish below. First downside target would a previous low around 479, upside target would be last week's high or the top end of its wedge.
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QQQ A Fall Expected! SELL!
My dear subscribers,
This is my opinion on the QQQ next move:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 486.76
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bearish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 468.18
My Stop Loss - 497.10
About Used Indicators:
On the subsequent day, trading above the pivot point is thought to indicate ongoing bullish sentiment, while trading below the pivot point indicates bearish sentiment.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Opening (IRA): QQQ October 18th 430 Monied Covered Call... for a 424.60 debit.
Comments: Re-upping in the Q's after profit taking ... .
As with my IWM position, I'm not being as aggressive as I usually am from a delta standpoint. This is because I've already made money in the cycle and want to give myself a little more room to be wrong since we've had somewhat of a bodice ripper from early August lows. Selling the -84 short call against stock, resulting in a setup with a net delta of around 16.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 424.60
Max Profit: 5.40
ROC at Max: 1.27%
50% Max: 2.70
ROC at 50% Max: .64%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max/roll out in-profit short call if there's a sell-off and the setup's net delta converges on +30.
Retail Trading ActivityRetail Trading Activity
👥 The Retail Trading Activity Tracker is a tool that monitors the daily buying and selling activity of retail investors for each stock, and they are rated based on the buying sentiment of each stock.
SYMBOL🟰%RETAIL ACTIVITY🟰SENTIMENT
NASDAQ:NVDA 13.68% 3
NASDAQ:TSLA 6.12% 2
NASDAQ:AMD 2.27% 3
$ESPIAR 1.97% 10
GETTEX:APL 1.94% 1
📊 Incredible things happened today on the Nasdaq from its opening and during the first 30 minutes of the session.
▪️ Yesterday, September 24, I drew a Fibonacci using the previous session's close as point A and the day's high, two hours before the market closed, as point B. The price fluctuated between the 78.6% and 61.8% levels, which are considered key support and resistance zones. It closed at a value of $485.
📈 Today, the market opened with an impressive bullish move of 1.6%, a significant increase of $7.7. However, upon reviewing the price behavior, we noticed it had been up for 5 consecutive days, which suggested the possibility of a healthy pullback.
📊 During the opening, the Fibonacci levels indicated our profit taking zones, but they were offset by a $7 price interruption between sessions.
▪️ This was a key point for taking a bearish stance for the day. On the NASDAQ:QQQ chart, it accurately respected the 61.8% levels, showing clear reactions at those zones on two occasions. This confirmed the importance of these levels for price action in the session; the levels were exactly $485.
SPY and QQQ Short: Reversal CandleThis is to correct my previous post regarding activating a bullish count. The fact that we finally have a major sell-down is enough for me to turn back bearish and back to my thesis that stock market will collapse, bond yields will fall, Fed will cut i/r before the election, and Democrats will lose the election.
This idea is based on:
1. SPY completing 5 waves,
2. QQQ completing A-B-C, and
3. Huge sell down candle.
The 20 Trading Lessons from Top Traders I have read a lot of trading books since the time I started trading my own account and the one book that really helps me out and “I wish I’ve read this one first” – is Market Wizards Interview with Top Traders by Jack D. Schwager.
Here’s the list that struck me most that I’d like to share:
“Early trading failure is a sign that you are doing something wrong; it is not necessarily a good predictor of ultimate potential failure or success.” – Michael Marcus
“If you don’t stay with your winners, you are not going to be able to pay for the losers.” – Michael Marcus
“Liquidating positions is the way to achieve mental clarity when one is losing money and confused regarding market decisions.” – Michael Marcus
“Being a successful trader also takes courage: the courage to try, the courage to fail, the courage to succeed, and the courage to keep going when the going keeps tough.” – Michael Marcus
“Place your stops at a point that, if reached, will reasonably indicate that the trade is wrong, not at a point determined primarily by the maximum dollar amount you are willing to lose per contract. If the meaningful stop point implies an uncomfortably large loss per contract, trade a smaller number of contracts.” – Bruce Kovner
“The times when you least want to think about trading – the losing periods – are precisely the times when you need to focus most on trading.” – Richard Dennis
“Everybody gets what they want out of the market.” – Ed Seykota
“It is a happy circumstance that when nature gives us true burning desires, it also gives us the means to satisfy them.” – Ed Seykota
“Frankly, I don’t see markets; I see risks, rewards and money.” – Larry HIte
“ I have two basic rules about winning in trading as well as in life: 1. If you don’t bet, you can’t win. 2. If you lose all your chips, you can’t bet” – Larry Hite
“In my judgment, all traders are seekers of truth.” – Michael Steinhardt
“The more disciplined you can get, the better you are going to do in the market. The more you listen to tips and rumors, the more money you’re likely to lose.” – David Ryan
“When the market gets good news and goes down, it means the market is very weak; when it gets bad news and goes up, it means the market is healthy.” – Marty Schwartz
“Learn to take losses. The most important thing in making money is not letting your losses get out of hand. Also, don’t increase your position size until you have doubled or tripled your capital. Most people make the mistake of increasing their bets as soon as they start making money. That is a quick way to get wiped out.” – Marty Schwartz
“The best traders are the most humble.” – Mark Weinstein
“You have to learn how to lose; it is more important than learning how to win.” – Mark Weinstein
“Most traders who fail have large egos and can’t admit that they are wrong. Even those who are willing to admit that they are wrong early in their career can’t admit it later on. Also, some traders fail because they are too worried about losing.” – Brian Gelber
“You are never really confident in this business, because you can always be wiped out pretty quickly. The way I trade is: Live by the sword, die by the sword. There is always the potential that I could get caught with the big position in a fluke move with the market going the limit against me. On the other hand, there is no doubt in my mind that I could walk into any market in the world and make money.” – Tom Baldwin
“Clear thinking, ability to stay focused, and extreme discipline. Discipline is number one: Take a theory and stick with it. But you have to be open-minded enough to switch tracks if you feel that your theory has been proven wrong. You have to be able to say, my method worked for this type of market, but we are not in that type of market anymore.” – Tony Saliba
“ How do you judge success? I don’t know. All I know is that all the money in the world isn’t the answer.” Tony Saliba
There’s still a lot of golden information that I want to write in here – for ourselves and for everyday reading so as to keep us aligned with our trading goal, but I prefer to encourage you to read the book.
$QQQ Analysis, Key Levels & Targets for Day TradersNo video again tonight but here is the trading range. Implied move is between 481-488, and the next day’s is much wider so definitely look out for those strikes since we’re above the top of the implied move right now with where futures take it so be careful if we open elevated and don’t get back into the implied move right away, that’s a squeeze setup right there.
Also pay attention that it’s a gap up right into a bear gap so expect a bit of a fight here.
Don’t forget Powell speaks today in the morning and we have GDP both of which could bring that down, but if we stay elevated be careful of a squeeze.
Stupid Willy is pointing down.
35EMA has been holding us up since FOMC and it’s right in the middle today.
GL, y’all… I’ll keep you up to date on the wifi situation and hopefully videos will resume soon.