QQQ to bounce from hereMODs have suggested that I provide more detail about the picks I make.
Sorry. I'm not as verbose as y'all, and I don't like things to be complicated.
My trading system is very simple.
I buy or sell at top & bottom of parallel channels.
I confirm when price hits Fibonacci levels.
Bonus if a TTM Squeeze in in play.
I hold until target is reached or end of year, when I can book a loss.
So...
Here's why I'm picking this symbol to do the thing.
Price at bottom channel
Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) at oversold level
Impulse MACD is flat suggesting squeeze might happen
In at $449
Top of channel or $480 is target
QQQ trade ideas
Long QQQ - oversold = free money long-term imhoLook I know it's an obvious trade, and a potentially early one...but c'mon. Long term, can I find anyone who will bet against tech? Any number of individual QQQ components are oversold today, so you could take your pick of them, too. GOOG, MSFT, NVDA, AMZN, etc. and maybe do better trading them. But diversificiation mitigates individual stock risk factors.
I might be early on this trade, as a full blown correction has been a while coming, and it could be a 10% one or more depending on how earnings season goes. But if I had a nickel for every time I've ever missed a profitable potential QQQ trade because I waited too long, I'd have a LOT more nickels than I do now. This one may take a while to work out, but betting on the QQQ is as close to free money as there is in the stock market long term, in my opinion.
Besides, if interest rates are heading lower (and I believe they are), tech will benefit. We saw that after the latest inflation numbers printed. But the celebration was early and now I think everyone was looking for a reason to calm down and book profits until the actual easing happens. If Biden talking China trade restrictions for the chip makers and Trump giving TikTok some love is the excuse, fine. Whatever works. But in my mind, there is nothing macro that tells me this isn't just a normal correction. I'm not even convinced it's gonna be that extreme yet.
Again, it could go lower before it turns around. My response: fine, then I'll add to my position whenever it's oversold. But until someone can convince me that long-term, tech is not a winner I"m taking this trade.
Buying lots as long as it's oversold and selling each lot as it becomes BOTH overbought and profitable. I'll update as I buy or sell.
As always, this idea is edu-tainment, not investment advice. If you trade with my ideas, good luck to you, but it's your responsibility not mine in terms of how that turns out for you. Never put money into the market that you can't afford to lose if things go badly sideways.
Thoughts for tomorrow Thursday Sept. 12Big upwards move today after a brief low below yesterdays low(sep 10),
qqq closed near daily highs and right on the top of an 13 day downwards trendline (A)which could be resistance. If we break through that next resistance is 473 followed by July 11 high downward trend line resistance 0f 477. If we cant break the 11 day old downward trend line I will favor the short term short trade on a 5 = 15 minute chart and trade on a trendline point of view.
Top 5 Weekly Trade Ideas #3 - QQQ Long/ShortQQQ is testing a trendline that has held since late August now. Small rejection so far, we may bounce shortly and end up breaking out above. If not, I'd expect a big failure here. I think this will determine direction for the next few days at least. If bears can't hold it here, there's not much stopping us from squeezing back up to 486.
I still favor downside for now, but we're getting close to the point where I can't be bearish anymore, at least in the shorter term. Should be interesting.
QQQ & J225 Wyckoff Distribution I'm seeing Wyckoff Distribution Patterns on lots of index and mega cap charts, including QQQ J225 & MSFT. It seems pretty obvious that the next bear market is about to start, between Sept Trip Witch and March Trip Witch.
I have no association with Trading Coach, just borrowing their graphic for example.
Bear flag formation in downtrendThe trend is already SELL. The past two days have been a bear flag in formation like you see. This is a downtrend continuation pattern. QQQ is trying to gather liquidity from above and then a catalyst like CPI, PPI, Jobless claims coming this week will trigger a sell.
This is not investment advice. Please do your own DD.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For Sept 10 : Consolidation CarryoverToday will likely be similar to yesterday - but slightly more consolidated overall.
I belive the markets are struggling into a dual Excess Phase Peak Flag (Step #2) and the SPY/QQQ show this very clearly.
This dual Excess Phase Peak pattern will result in either a breakdown in price (starting after Sept 20th or so) or a continued rally phase breaching the Unique & Ultimate Fibonacci High price levels.
Ultimately, I believe the breakdown potential is higher at this point than the continued rally phase. That is why I'm asking traders to prepare for a top near Sept 20-25 and to move assets into CASH as we melt upward over the next 5+ days.
If my research is correct, the second Excess Phase Peak pattern will prompt a breakdown in price - resulting in an attempt to find support above recent (60-90 day) lows. And that will reflect a -9-14% drawdown in price.
If I'm wrong and we don't see this breakdown in price, then we'll see price struggle to move higher and eventually break the recent ATH levels.
Watch this video to learn how the Excess Phase Peak patterns setup.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
The Fall of the S&P 500 is a Trading Opportunity in QQQ The recent correction of the S&P 500 presents itself as a buying opportunity, with no signs of a 2000 dotcom-like bubble and projections to reach 6,000 points by the end of 2024. In this context of volatility, especially in the wake of Nvidia's results and doubts about artificial intelligence, it is recommended to adopt tactical strategies to manage risk.
Currently, the Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (known as QQQ and also as the “little Nasdaq”) is in a trading range between 485.36 and 450.84 points, with support at 419.89 points and a recent all-time high of 503.52 points. The Pre-Market Checkpoint is at 453.55 points, and the RSI shows a corrective move since August 22, with a current value of 41.77%. These technical levels suggest key areas to execute and adjust positions in a volatile environment, taking advantage of the buying opportunity in the market.
An adaptable strategy for trading derivatives, such as futures or CFDs (Contracts for Difference), is the use of simultaneous long and short positions on the same index or underlying asset, similar to the “ strangle ” logic. Unlike with options, this strategy involves opening a long (buy) and a short (sell) position in the same asset to capture sharp market movements. In the case of expected volatility in the QQQ, a trader could hold both positions and adjust their size in each based on market movements, allowing them to take advantage of large fluctuations without relying on a specific market direction. This tactic effectively manages risk while maintaining exposure to significant movements in either direction.
Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst
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QQQ: End of Wave 1 of Wave CMore selling is expected in the market. We may get a bounce early in the week if wave 3 is not finished, but I am expecting a hard gap down sometime next week to complete Wave 1. From there, we will get a sizeable rally probably going into rate decision. After that, a MUCH larger series of selling in October or November.
QQQ The Target Is UP! BUY!
My dear friends,
Please, find my technical outlook for QQQ below:
The price is coiling around a solid key level - 448.69
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Pivot Points Low anticipates a potential price reversal.
Super trend shows a clear buy, giving a perfect indicators' convergence.
Goal - 463.68
About Used Indicators:
The pivot point itself is simply the average of the high, low and closing prices from the previous trading day.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Major earnings are times to hedge or BTDAs far more eloquent and technical writers have covered (spotgamma, etc) - it's very clear that the markets in general are driven by single name options on the largest market cap companies.
And to help visualize just how much volatility can happen around earnings on these single names, I wanted to be able to visualize those earnings dates and impacts against some of the major benchmark ETFs like SPY or QQQ.
So far, I hadn't seen a place that gives this a more clear presentation so here is my first attempt at visualizing just how large the ripples are from the "megacaps" (AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA, etc) in a very "glanceable" way.
Introducing this indicator here first!
Earnings Date Highlighter - from0_to_1
Easily see the earnings dates from top market movers or the top holdings of your favorite ETF!
QQQ is showing to be rather volatileQQQ is showing to be less predictable and prone to false breakouts
Last week QQQ performed a two day long false breakout above before retreating
Today we see QQQ again break below its downward trend.
breaking below a downward trend is usually followed by a course correction back into the normal trading zone
QQQ is proving to be volatile and thus difficult to define when a trend is actually reversing or just another fake out that takes our money.
$QQQ Trading range for QQQ 9.6.24The 4hr 200MA just above us, the 1hr 200MA above that and the 30min 35EMA. Those are the only levels in today’s trading range.
If that turns out to be resistance, or if we start with downward momentum the bottom of the implied move has a down gap and up gap to fill, and think that we’re going to fill that sooner than later.
Happy Trading, y’all!!
QQQ more downsideQQQ and the broader markets are correcting as expected. NVDA was tremendously overvalued. Many companies are selling off into value zones at this point as the Mag 7 continues to bleed. Look back at my retrospective QQQ chart and how it perfectly corrected at the golden ratio. I expect a bit more downside here, September is typically the worst month of the year for markets.
-My target before Sept 21st is 444$
-The 50 EMA will likely rise to the red dashed line or close, we could see a wick to that region in the next 2/3 weeks
-I expect a retest of 500ish by end of year
QQQ forms horizontal support line QQQ has sold off quite a bit over the past 2 weeks. We are now starting to see consolidation as selling pressure reduces
Horizontal support line starts to form after sell off
Still within downward trading range
Could be stock is taking a breather before more selling continues
September and at times October are notably bad months of the year
We are seeing a settling right now, but we still are in a downtrend and the beginning of a historically bad month.
QQQ: Last Chance to React - Major Support Levels.Since our last study of the QQQ, the ETF has reached the support points we described earlier, and now its price is trying to stabilize, but we have yet to see a promising reaction.
Looking at the daily chart for QQQ, we can see that after reaching the resistance zone near $484.43, the price has sharply declined, retracing towards the 38.2% Fibonacci level around $460. The 50% retracement level around $453, followed by the 61.8% level near $446, may act as critical support levels if the price continues to weaken. The 21-day EMA is currently acting as dynamic resistance, and only a breakout of this key point would bring somethihng new on QQQ, as it will enter bullish territory again.
On the weekly chart, the price remains within a well-defined ascending channel. The recent rejection near the upper boundary of the channel shows that this trend remains intact but could be vulnerable to further downside corrections, especially if the price cannot hold support at the lower Fibonacci levels. The 21-week EMA is still trending upward and should be watched closely as a potential area for support in the medium term.
In summary, QQQ is showing signs of weakness after failing to break resistance at $484.43. With Fibonacci retracement levels providing near-term support, we should watch for a possible breakdown below the 38.2% level, which could lead to a deeper pullback toward the 50% and 61.8% levels. If support holds, the price could attempt another push higher, but the 21-day EMA needs to be reclaimed for the bullish trend to regain strength. Therefore, it feels like this is the last chance for the QQQ to react, otherwise, we may see a sharp correction ahead.
For more detailed technical analyses and insights like this, be sure to follow my account. Your support helps me continue providing valuable content to help you make informed trading decisions.
Remember, real trading is reactive, not predictive, so let's stay focused on the key points described above and only trade when there is confirmation.
“To anticipate the market is to gamble. To be patient and react only when the market gives the signal is to speculate.” — Jesse Lauriston Livermore
All the best,
Nathan.