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Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1

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QQQ trade ideas

Weekly GEX of QQQ | Option Chain AnalysisI’d like to share my thoughts below after analyzing the QQQ option chain. In this analysis, I focus exclusively on the weekly time range, examining the QQQ option chain and the changes in top-tier options metrics. 🟨 Decline in Put Pricing Skew and Increase in IVx The decline in put pricing skew on Options Oscillator suggests that put options are becoming relatively cheaper , signaling a shift in market participants' expectations. This indicates increased call buying and put writing activity in the options chain . Along with the decrease in implied volatility (IV), this often points to a lower demand for downside protection strategies, which could be interpreted as a bullish sentiment. Currently, the QQQ’s IVRank stands at 31.5, reflecting a moderate volatility environment. However, with an average IVx of 19.2, trading volumes could increase, and interest in volatility-based strategies may rise further. 🔶 Backwardation in 4-7 DTE and Time Spreads Backwardation in the 4-7 DTE (days to expiration) period can be ideal for time spread (calendar, diagonal) option traders , as near-term options show higher volatility than longer-term ones. This creates a favorable environment for time spread strategies, especially if this backwardation persists. 🟨 Gamma Levels and Open Interest-Based Levels Call high OI gamma walls (or call resistance levels) typically act as resistance points. However, once these levels are broken, the bullish movement can accelerate due to positive gamma exposure. Put gamma walls (or put support levels), on the other hand, act as support. If broken, downward moves can intensify due to the high negative gamma exposure. While the current largest gamma wall was for today at 495, the upcoming expiration on 10/14 could shift this level to 500, where the greatest gamma exposure will likely be after the Monday expiration (due to the large amount of open interest expiring at 495). If the price breaks above this level, it could further bolster bullish prospects to 505 (last ATH). Additionally, the 500 strike plays a critical role as a major level in the Options Grid System, representing the 8/8 level. 🟨 OTM 16 delta probability cloud in Options Overlay The blue Delta Curves on the Options Overlay show the 16-delta levels, helping traders identify potential price ranges. According to current data, on the call side, the 505 strike is still within the 16-delta range, reinforcing its bullish potential. This represents the 68% probability range defined by OTM 16 delta PUTs and OTM 16 delta CALLs, showing a clear directional expected move value. It provides an insightful view of the expected price movement’s directional range, often used by delta-neutral strangle traders like those at TastyTrade. 🟨 Time Spread Strategies The aforementioned backwardation and gamma wall situation may present an advantage for time spread traders. Backwardation between 4-7 DTE provides an optimal window for those favoring time spreads, as the higher short-term volatility offers better premiums. 🟨 TanukiTrade Options Oscillator values The TanukiTrade Options Oscillator indicates that the combination of declining put skew and decreasing IV suggests potential volatility growth on the bullish side of the market. This could be a valuable signal for both long and time spread strategies. ⅀ QQQ Summary The decline in put skew and increase in IVx imply that market participants are anticipating an increase in bullish volatility. Backwardation between 4-7DTE supports time spread strategies, while the call gamma wall at 500—and soon 505—is likely to serve as significant resistance/target. (NOTE: GEX levels is not part of the TanukiTrade Options Overlay indicator yet. The automatic GEX levels will be available soon, by the end of October!)
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by TanukiTrade
4
QQQ: A Rally Towards the ATH!Daily Chart (Left): Resistance at $503.52: The price is approaching a key resistance zone around $503.52, the ATH, which may serve as a potential reversal area. A breakout above this could signal more bullish momentum. Support at $493.15: There is immediate support at $493.15, where price action has consolidated briefly. This level might act as a pivot zone, where buyers could step in if there’s a pullback. Momentum: The price is above the 21-day EMA, which is rising, indicating the trend is currently bullish. Buyers seem to be in control, and the price action has been making higher highs and higher lows. Weekly Chart (Right): Ascending Channel: The price has been trending upward within a well-defined ascending channel. The mid-point of this channel, around $493, has acted as resistance in recent weeks. Next Resistance: The upper boundary of the channel, which is above the resistance at $503.52, could offer significant resistance. This suggests that QQQ could renew its ATH if this bullish momentum persists. Overall Trend: The weekly trend remains strong, with the 21-week EMA providing dynamic support, reinforcing the overall bullish bias. Conclusion: The price is currently bullish but nearing key resistance at $503.52. Traders should be cautious around this level for potential profit-taking or reversal signals. If the price manages to break above $503.52, the next leg up in the bullish trend could begin. Conversely, if the QQQ loses the $493 support, it could materialize a sharper correction to the 21-day EMA, or even to tthe $477 in the mid-term. For more detailed technical analyses and insights like this, be sure to follow my account. Your support helps me continue providing valuable content to help you make informed trading decisions. Remember, real trading is reactive, not predictive, so let's stay focused on the key points described above and only trade when there is confirmation. “To anticipate the market is to gamble. To be patient and react only when the market gives the signal is to speculate.” — Jesse Lauriston Livermore All the best, Nathan.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
1
Technical Analysis for QQQ (October 16, 2024)1. Trend and Channel QQQ is currently moving within an ascending channel. The recent price action suggests consolidation near the upper trendline, indicating the potential for either a breakout or pullback. 2. Key Levels to Watch Resistance Level: 494.47 A breakout above this level, with strong volume, could lead to further upside toward 498 or higher. Support Levels: 491.70 (near-term support). 490.17 (key level to hold). If price breaks below this, the next likely support zone is 479.90 - 477.40. 3. Volume and Momentum Analysis Volume: The current volume looks moderate, suggesting indecision in the market. Watch for a surge in volume on a breakout or breakdown for confirmation. MACD: Momentum appears neutral, as the indicator lines hover near the zero level. A crossover of the oscillator lines could indicate a shift in momentum—upward for bullish momentum or downward if bearish. 4. Trading Plan for Tomorrow Bullish Setup: If QQQ breaks above 494.47 with increased volume, consider entering a long position with a target near 498 (upper trendline). Use 491.70 as a trailing stop to secure profits. Bearish Setup: If QQQ drops below 490.17, it may indicate more selling pressure. Consider a short position targeting 479.90 - 477.40, with a stop above 491.70. Disclaimer This technical analysis is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for every investor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial professional before making any investment decisions.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by BullBear-Insights
QQQ Weekly Outlook (SPY) for OCT 14, 2024A week ago, I provided a weekly long-term view of QQQ (link below): I annotated that by looking at the weekly time frame, we can note that QQQ has been bouncing off the weekly trendline (TL) that started back in JAN 2023. It has touched and bounced off that trendline 3x so far: -MARCH 2023 -OCTOBER 2023 -AUGUST 2024 We started OCT 7th week around 487 and closed end of week at 493.36 Based on technical analysis, QQQ is in a triangle pattern with the top trendline starting on JULY 17th and then hitting it again several other times: -SEPT 26 -OCT 9 -OCT 10 -OCT 11 The bottom trendline starts on AUG 5th and touches again on: -SEPT 6 -SEPT 9 -SEPT 10 -SEPT 11 Another TL was drawn on SEPT 11 up which price has been respecting: -OCT 2 -OCT 3 -OCT 4 -OCT 7 -OCT 8 -OCT 11 This has cause price to get tighter and tighter against JULY 17th TOP TL. In addition, price has been making Higher Lows (HL) and Higher Highs (HH) starting from AUG 5th until current date. The following are the HH/HL: HL: AUG 5/ SEPT 6 - 11 / OCT 1 - 3 HH: AUG 22 / SEPT 26 / OCT 11 The GAP that was created between JULY 16 - 17 was filled on SEPT 26 causing the market to GAP REJECT and push price down. Price has once again come back to that gap and closed above it. GAPS can be used in several ways. One being the initial rejection. As price is back above it again, what was once resistance / supply can now be potentially turned into support / demand. The second method can be the INVERSION of a GAP. Utilizing my longer thesis from last week along with the new / current data, a bullish sentiment is formed going into this week for the following reason: -Two bottom TLs have been respected and acted as support -Higher Lows/Higher Highs are being made -Price closed above the GAP that that acted initially as resistance and now turned into support (inversion) -No economic catalyst for bearish scenario 'yet' -Price had a strong close above the 5 and 8 EMA on the daily time frame. Price Targets: PT1: $498.44 PT2: $500 PT3: $501.01 PT4: $503.07 PT5: $503.52 PT6: $505 This is NOT financial advice but my opinion on the market. NASDAQ:AAPL NASDAQ:AMZN NASDAQ:QQQ NYSE:ES SP:SPX #thestrat SEED_ALEXDRAYM_SHORTINTEREST2:NQ AMEX:SPY SEED_ALEXDRAYM_SHORTINTEREST2:NQ NASDAQ:MSFT NASDAQ:TSLA NASDAQ:NVDA NASDAQ:AMD SaD
NASDAQ:QQQ
by SADnation
QQQ for Friday (11/10/2024)Price Action: Current Resistance: QQQ is encountering resistance near the 493.71 - 494.47 level. This zone has been tested several times but hasn't been broken, suggesting possible overhead supply. Support Levels: Strong support is evident around 479.90 - 483.34, indicated by the green order block zone. Buyers have shown interest in this region on previous pullbacks. Trendline: There is an upward trendline providing support, showing that the ETF is maintaining an overall bullish structure. Any pullback to this trendline could act as dynamic support. Direction: Bullish Scenario: If QQQ breaks above 494.47 with increased volume, it could continue its upward trajectory. Look for a breakout confirmation before entering a long trade. Bearish Scenario: A failure to break above the resistance could push QQQ toward its support at 483.34 or even further down to 479.90. If the price closes below the trendline, it may signal a reversal or correction. Order Block: Bullish Order Block: The green order block around 479.90 - 483.34 shows significant buying interest. A pullback to this area may result in a bounce as buyers step back in. Bearish Order Block: No immediate bearish order block visible in the upper range, but rejection at resistance could form one in the near term, especially if volume increases. Volume and Indicators: Volume: Volume seems steady but not surging, which could indicate caution among participants as price approaches resistance. Momentum Oscillators: The oscillators show mixed signals with slight volatility. Watch for momentum shifts that may indicate a reversal or continuation. Strategy: For long positions, look for a breakout above 494.47 with higher volume and momentum confirmation. Target higher resistance zones or ride the trend if volume spikes. For short positions, a failure at resistance or a break below 483.34 could open short opportunities, especially toward the 479.90 support zone. This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. Always do your own research and consult with a professional financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by BullBear-Insights
QQQ Technical Analysis for Tomorrow (10/10/24)Price Action Current Price: QQQ is trading around 492.95. Trend: It appears to be in an uptrend, confirmed by the ascending trendlines which show higher highs and higher lows. The price is currently near the top of this trend channel, meaning it might face some resistance soon. Support and Resistance Immediate Resistance: Around 494.00. The price has previously reacted to this level, indicating potential selling pressure as QQQ approaches this zone. Support Levels: 490.00: Immediate support near a previous consolidation zone. 488.39: A strong support level below 490. This level has held in recent trading sessions, indicating buying interest here. 479.89: A major support level that hasn't been revisited in recent sessions, but could serve as a critical point if QQQ breaks lower. Volume and Momentum Volume: There is a slight increase in volume as the price approaches resistance, suggesting possible selling interest or a breakout attempt. Oscillator/Indicator: It looks neutral at the moment, but given the uptrend, further upward movement is still possible. Future Outlook for Tomorrow Bullish Case: If QQQ breaks above 494.00 with strong volume, it could test the next resistance levels in the 496–500 range. Consider a breakout trade above resistance with caution, monitoring volume and momentum. Bearish Case: If it fails to break above resistance, expect a retracement toward 490.00 or 488.39, which could serve as re-entry points for long positions or targets for short-term shorts. Strategy Long: If the price pulls back to 490.00 or 488.39, consider long positions with stops below 487.00. Short: If QQQ fails to break 494.00 and shows bearish momentum, short-term shorts targeting 490.00 or 488.39 could work. Disclaimer This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Trading involves risk, and you should conduct your own research or consult with a professional before making any trading decisions.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by BullBear-Insights
9
QQQ range boundQQQ hovering around the resistance of the core channel from 2010. Found support on the center of the black channel that is based on the COVID bubble. Price seems to generally range bound in this area between trendlines. Looks like more sideways without something big to push it one way or the other. Overall, it seems like tech has run out of FOMO. That does not mean we don't keep moving sideways and slowly up, but it does feel like any big moves to the upside are less likely.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by Dr_Roboto
1
Potential Downside Scenario with High Volatility for QQQGiven the recent performance of QQQ, which moved slightly upward during the second half of September but failed to hit a new all-time high, there's a sign of relative weakness compared to the broader market, which did achieve multiple new highs. Additionally, the Mag-7 stocks are showing short-term indecision, with some even hinting at potential bearish momentum. Key Indicators for NASDAQ:QQQ : Oscillators: Most of the oscillators, including the RSI (50.38) and the Stochastic %K (51.85), remain in neutral territory, indicating no clear momentum in either direction. Momentum (-5.99) and MACD (1.69) both signal short-term bearish sentiment. Moving Averages: The majority of short-term moving averages (10, 20) are in sell territory, while the longer-term averages (50, 100, 200) remain in buy territory, reflecting the broader uptrend. This suggests that, despite the recent pullback, QQQ is still supported by a longer-term positive trend. Ichimoku Base Line (485.55) and Hull Moving Average (486.10): These levels are also signaling potential consolidation, as they point to selling pressure near key levels. Conclusion: As a result, there is a potential downside correction with increased volatility in the near term. If this scenario materializes, the current mixed signals from major tech stocks and the overall technical setup will reinforce a bearish trend, causing risk-reward conditions to deteriorate rapidly. In such a case, long positions should be carefully reviewed and managed accordingly. Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always assess your own risk tolerance before making any investment decisions.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by CF_444
Why I'm Bullish in the market on the midtermIntroduction I want to break down why I’m optimistic about the current market conditions and share my strategy as we approach the release of CPI data. I’ll walk you through the big picture—the macroeconomic landscape, the Fed’s approach, economic indicators, and the geopolitical situation MACRO ANALYSIS 1. Fed’s Approach Dovish Let’s start by looking at the macro environment. Right now, the Federal Reserve is signaling rate cuts. Market now is expecting a 0.50 cut at the end of the year. A good question is why the Fed is cutting rates. In my opinion, the most important reason is that inflation is almost at its target of 2% year over year. This is crucial because it tells us that the economy isn’t overheating anymore. The Fed no longer needs to keep rates high to control inflation. So what happens when rates come down? Companies can borrow money at lower costs, consumers can spend more freely, and overall, this adds fuel to the economy. We’re also seeing quantitative easing, meaning more liquidity is being pumped into the market. This will likely lead to a weaker US dollar, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing. A weaker dollar can boost exports and benefit risk-on assets like cryptocurrencies and equities. Adding to that, CHINA, Japan and potentially the EUR are taking dovish behavior in their monetary policy, CHINA stimulating the economy strongly. BOJ reducing the hawkish,Adding more fuel to the global markets. 2. Economic Strength We’re seeing strong economic indicators. JOLTS Job opening 8.14M vs 7.64M, ISM Services PMI were stronger than expected 54.9 VS 51.7 and continued above 50 indicating expansion. NFP data 254k vs 247 number better than expected, Unemployment rate 4.1% vs 4.2% better than expected. These are signs that businesses are still hiring, consumers are still spending, and overall, the economy is not strugglin. This is important because it means we’re not cutting rates due to a weak economy and helping it—. The FED is cutting rates because inflation is coming under control, not because businesses are struggling. This distinction is key for my optimism. Lower borrowing costs paired with a strong economy create a good environment for growth. This means that a dovish monetary policy, strong economy potentiate the growth, expansion, investment on the economy and business that this is reflected in the equities prices. 3. Geopolitical Conflict The third piece of the puzzle is the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East. Yes, this adds some uncertainty to the global outlook, but from a market perspective, geopolitical events tend to create short-term volatility. As long as the situation doesn’t escalate further, I don’t see it as a mid-term threat to the broader market. When the situation stabilizes, we could even see markets gain more confidence. For now, I’m not letting this weigh too heavily on my decision-making. Elections USA, just adding on this part that both sides are going to continue expanding the debt and increasing the expenditures, Trump is proposing more stimulus to the economy with a more aggressive reduction of the rates. Generally both sides offers similar paths but Trump more aggressive CONCLUSION In the midterm the macro indicates a good environment for the equities to continue higher. Some names I’m looking for are in the crypto space such as IBIT, ETF as TQQQ and stocks as NVDA, Meta. But I will cover in another letter
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by AJTRADER84
QQQ Dancing on a High Wire $422.93: Golden Genesis fib and top?=QQQ is dancing on a high wire, a Golden Genesis fib at $422.93 Failure here could indicate top is in, so this is a key level here. Just below is a fib confluence at $418, last stop before SERIOUS dip. It is PROBABLE that we orbit this fib for a while. It is POSSIBLE to bounce here and keep going up. It is PLAUSIBLE a bull trap / distribution is done. Here is a snapshot of the Genesis Sequence for the Q's: =================================================================================================
NASDAQ:QQQ
by EuroMotif
4
$QQQ Longer ViewpointNASDAQ:QQQ is lagging behind AMEX:SPY and has not reclaimed ATH ' yet .' Looking at the weekly time frame, we can note that NASDAQ:QQQ has been bouncing off the trendline that started back in JAN 2023. It has touched and bounced off that trendline 3x so far: -MARCH 2023 -OCTOBER 2023 -AUGUST 2024 Each time it bounced, it ran for approximately 100pts + and took roughly 124 - 140 days before consolidation and/or a correction / retracement / pullback occurred. From a technical standpoint, NASDAQ:QQQ will attempt at All Time Highs (ATH) at $503.52 again. We have to be conscience of the divergence between AMEX:SPY and $QQQ. AMEX:SPY has already made a new ATH while NASDAQ:QQQ is lagging behind. If ATH is broken on NASDAQ:QQQ and price move similarly to the last two weekly trendline bounce, then price could reach $528 and some change before possible consolidation and/or a correction / retracement / pullback occurred with a timeline of around mid-December. Failure to reclaim and/or break ATH can cause NASDAQ:QQQ to return back to the trendline. This is NOT financial advice but an opinion.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by SADnation