Daily Recap - Small Account Challenge QQQ AMD PLTRA recap of today's action. Great day for the Dow and Russell, but pretty quiet for NQ. I was fairly bearish going in to today, but ended up bullish by day's end. I'm trying to play it day by day and remain mostly neutral because I haven't been reading some of the recent action well when it comes to the next 1-2 weeks lately. I like to slow down and focus on day trades or some less risky swings when that happens.
I like the PLTR long, but still think it could be dangerous. We have cleared $27 and remained above, but we have a final obstacle here around $29. Seems like it could go either way, but maintaining bullish bias for now.
QQQ trade ideas
Opening (IRA): QQQ August 16th 425 Monied Covered Call... for a 420.39 debit.
Comments: After having taken profit on my August 16th 420 CC, re-upping, but at a slightly higher strike ... . The ROC %-age metrics aren't generally what I like to see out of these, but have already realized some gains in the August cycle, so am fine if the ROC %-age isn't stellar here. I'm also selling the -85 delta call against, as opposed to my usual -75.
Metrics:
Break Even/BPE: 420.39
Max Profit: 4.61
ROC at Max: 1.10%
50% Max: 2.30
ROC at 50% Max: .55%
Market Watch: Analyzing QQQ and ITB PerformanceIn this week's market analysis, we're diving into the performance of Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) and the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB) over the past five years.
**Orange Line**: ITB (iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF)
**Candlestick Chart**: QQQ (Invesco QQQ Trust)
Here's what stands out:
1. **ITB vs. QQQ Performance**:
- Over the last five years, ITB has shown impressive growth of 181.62%.
- QQQ has also performed remarkably, with a gain of 138.88%.
2. **Relative Strength Index (RSI)**:
- The upper RSI chart shows the RSI for QQQ, currently at 73.93, indicating an overbought condition.
- The lower RSI chart displays the RSI for ITB, at 57.39, suggesting it's in a more neutral zone.
3. **Trend Analysis**:
- Both ETFs experienced significant volatility during the COVID-19 pandemic, as seen in early 2020.
- Since then, QQQ has steadily recovered and reached new highs, while ITB has shown stronger but more volatile growth.
4. **Recent Movements**:
- Both ETFs have shown positive momentum recently, with ITB experiencing a sharper upward trajectory.
**Key Takeaways**:
- ITB has outpaced QQQ in percentage growth over the past five years.
- RSI indicators suggest that QQQ might be in an overbought zone, while ITB remains in a healthier range.
Stay tuned for more market insights and don't forget to follow for weekly updates!
#StockMarket #Investing #ETFs #QQQ #ITB #MarketAnalysis #TradingView #Finance #Stocks #Investment
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07/15 QQQ ATR Levels and RangeWith the crazy event over the weekend and lite work on the reports side with the exception of Powell speaking at 1230... I DONT Know what to expect and will be watching the following levels. ATR currently sitting at 5.46, which is a slow increase.
If we can get over 497.50 area we could see the 500 trange again, maybe 503.50 area.
If we lose the 495 area we could go as low as 490.73
SCALP
SR2 498.53
SR1 497.82
SPOP 497.11
LAST PRICE 496.40
SBREAK 495.69
SS1 494.98
SS2 494.27
----------------
R2 503.50
R1 500.77
POP 499.13
LAST PRICE 496.40
BREAK 493.70
S1 491.54
S2 490.11
How to use Moving Averages like a proIn this video I describe how I use Moving Averages to trade and to stay in sync with the market. Popular Moving averages include the 9, 21, 50, or 200. Feel free to use Simple Moving averages or Exponential moving averages, both works fine, and I like to use the EMAs because they are a little quicker to respond to price movement. I also go over a trading strategy for going long or short in the market once the 50 EMA starts to change directions, I will take a position in that direction. So, if the 50 EMA goes down for a long time, I will take a long once it starts to point up. Thank you for watching!
07/12 QQQ ATR Levels and RangesBeen out of the pocket for the last 2 days, so I am just going to stick to my lines this morning no emphasis on a perspective or thesis. ATR is at 5.45 which is going up from prior month and from earlier this month. I do think that we go back up from this LOW LOW area we are experiencing, the PPI reports came out this am relatively flat, however a shave off a few tenths of a point is good in the economics world. tradingeconomics.com
SCALP
SR2 495.05
SR1 494.35
SPOP 493.64
LAST PRICE 492.93
SBREAK 492.22
SS1 491.51
SS2 490.81
R2 500.01
R1 497.29
POP 495.65
LAST PRICE 492.93
BREAK 490.23
S1 488.08
S2 486.65
Daily Recap - NQ Sell Off After CPIA recap of today's action, bears finally got some relief today, but we'll see if they keep up the momentum or not. I'm expecting at least a little more downside, but we'll see how tomorrow goes. The best thing about today IMO is that something interesting happened and there was a lot of trade setups which was great. Looking forward to tomorrow.
QQQ Nasdaq Drop Analysis July 11, 2024Everything that goes up must come down! Many people get scared on days like today when the NQ dropped around 10% out of nowhere, but if we expand the chart, we can see that since mid-April, the Nasdaq has only gone up and up! We call this a state of institutional liquidation.
Today, the CPI results were favorable, and there was no economic news that could have taken down the Nasdaq, so naturally, the market has to go down. The question is, for how many days? We really don't know, but if we average the last pullback, we can see that it will be at least 4 to 5 days.
Thank you.
QQQ - Tapped out but looking for another TradeWhether you took the swing or the position trade, both were tapped out. This happens, part of trading, which is why we assign a risk to it.
Either way I am still hedged short here and looking to add one more position in the near term.
I am also looking for a trade if and when the setup takes place.
Currently I am short 200 shares and also short two (2) 495 Calls expiring July 19th.
Happy Trading
Short QQQ, Long IWM?The long tech trade seems to be coming to an end here. If we continue to reject this trendline, then I think the Mag 7 and Nasdaq trade could be over and you'll be better off longing "value" going forward.
On an individual stock basis, there's a number of names that look to be forming bottoms in the value space and a number of stocks (META, NFLX, NVDA, etc.) that all look to be forming tops.
Time to rebalance the portfolio around value?
The chart should be the guide should it reject and fall from here.
Small cap rotation starting??Today could (repeat COULD - not confirmed) be the start of a turn for a period of small cap outperformance vs large cap tech. Came within 5% of my long term target so QQQ/IWM could still just be just pausing before one more leg higher BUT there could be a big rotation starting!
Do not Trap in Gambler's/ Monte Carlo Fallacy!This image shows a historical chart of the QQQ ticker (which tracks the Nasdaq-100 index) over the past 15 years. The chart displays sequences of the market's consecutive up days (green) and down days (red).
Key points from the image:
1. The chart spans from 2009 to 2024.
2. Green and red bars represent up and down days respectively.
3. Numbers in boxes above certain points indicate strings of consecutive up or down days.
4. The longest streak shown is 14 consecutive up days.
5. The title warns: "Be aware to not trapped in Gambler's/Monte Carlo fallacy"
The Monte Carlo fallacy, also known as the gambler's fallacy, is the mistaken belief that if an event has occurred more frequently than normal in the past, it's less likely to happen in the future (or vice versa). In the context of this chart, it warns against assuming that because the market has been up for several consecutive days, it's "due" for a down day, or the opposite.
This fallacy is particularly relevant in financial markets where past performance doesn't necessarily predict future results. The chart illustrates that while streaks of consecutive up or down days do occur, they're unpredictable and don't follow a set pattern.
The warning aims to remind investors and traders not to make decisions based on the expectation that a trend must reverse simply because it has continued for some time. Each market day is independent, and past patterns don't determine future movements.
07/10 QQQ Levels and ATR RangesATR for the QQQ siting at 5.14 - WE have 10am and 1030am reports on Crude and Gas from the FOMC, Powell still testifying about the economy in front of the senate. 2nd quarter earnings are on the way this is going to a be busy month.
Looking for good reports to come out of tomorrow, so they might be buying up the Momentum into these reports tomorrow. But they might also be selling to bring it lower to bring it back up again.
If we get a pullback, I would expect it into the 496.24 area for Yesterdays low range, if we break that, then potential 495.50 for the weeks low.
I will follow the ATR lines and look for Volume and price action along with the EMAs to help gauge a potential direction.
We are now dancing premarket dance around yesterdays high level of 499.81 (52 week at 500.00 EVEN). if we bust through that area after open, following my scalp lines and levels up to 500.48 to 501.82, potentially 502.30. If we get there, I believe the fight for 504 in underway.
God bless and good luck everyone.
QQQ - Short JUL19 495C @ $6.65 2 ContractsJust adding to my short position using a short options trade strategy. Selling two contracts here, and if we get a better setup will add to my short position overall.
Was originally short 100 shares and had another contract assigned for a current 200 share short position. The other short contract expired worthless so I kept that premium.
This can be taken as a trade or as I am doing a hedge for your portfolio. Will update later want to get the trade out!!
07/09 QQQ Levels and ATR RangesBig Pappa Pump is talking this morning, QQQ ATR is at 5.16$
We got big reports happening on Thursday, but other than that the reports are pretty weak. Looking for a pull back and bounce round 497.39 as low at 496.03 if we pull further I am really looking for the bounce around 495.50 yesterdays low of the day.
If we get upside action we are certainly going past 500, especially if we pop past 499.50 with volume and price action the BIDs gotta pull waaaay past the ASK - possibly 502.70 area before we go back to test 498.59.
SCALP
SR2 500.60
SR1 499.93
SPOP 499.26
LAST PRICE 498.59
SBREAK 497.92
SS1 497.25
SS2 496.58
STANDARD
R2 505.30
R1 502.72
POP 501.17
LAST PRICE 498.59
BREAK 496.03
S1 494.00
S2 492.64