$QQQ is testing the most important medium-term resistanceNASDAQ:QQQ is testing the upside resistance to confirm the fifth wave finished
QQQ trade ideas
Opening (IRA): QQQ March 24th 280/May 19th 323 LPD*... for a 31.72 debit.
Comments: Short delta hedge against a long delta portfolio. Buying the back -90 delta put and selling the front +30 to give me -60 delta/contract worth of hedge. This isn't a commentary or forecast of where the market goes from here, but rather in the nature of buying protection to keep my wife from yelling at me because her portfolio is down too much.
31.72 cost basis with a 291.28 break even on a 43 wide.
* -- Long put diagonal.
Opening (IRA): QQQ March 15th 348 Short Put... for a 3.51 credit.
Comments: Targeting the shortest duration <16 delta put paying around 1% of the strike price in credit to emulate dollar cost averaging into the broad market. Will naturally look to add in shorter duration should we get a sell-off and/or up-tick in IV that makes that worthwhile.
IWM & SPX face Ripping rally!The IWM & S&P500 is completely gone vertical; off the lowering of yields.
Its like the fed Pivoted today, but really they didnt.
Is this a Fomo rally or is the market fundamentals now turned Bullish?
Bull Steepener vs Bear Steepener?
$QQQ: Long term trend turning up?A pattern similar to the one that took place after the 2003 and 2009 bottoms is surfacing in mega cap tech and in index charts now...
Low risk buy signal suggesting we might get a substantial rally from here within the coming months, but potentially also for a couple years if the quarterly chart triggers here. This quarterly signal is visible in names like NASDAQ:AAPL and NASDAQ:MSFT , to name a few, so I think it will also trigger here.
It also comes on the heels of rates potentially having peaked for the time being, and the Dollar turning down after rallying substantially as of late. And after Oil has come down off the highs, which gives the market a bullish boost with some lag...it will be visible in the next quarterly report or two.
Best of luck!
Cheers,
Ivan 'risk on' Labrie.
QQQ: Week of December 11And last idea I will do is QQQ, unless otherwise requested to do something else.
Think I will ignore SPY this week.
Levels for QQQ are in the chart.
I usually check for price accumulation over the previous 500, 30 minute candles, but QQQ and the indices were kind of rangy last week so had to expand to 1,500 candle lookback.
Momentum probs are actually bearish with a 67% success rate.
Standard deviation are bullish with an identical success rate.
From looking at the probs on most things, I think we will see movement in both directions. If we can see some dipping first.. well... as they say... BTFD...
But at the end of the day, let PA speak for itself and watch those conditionals.
Safe trades everyone!
QQQ Should See Further Upside in Impulsive RallyCycle from 10.26.2023 low in QQQ remains in progress as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from 10.26.2023 low, wave 1 ended at 348.84 and pullback in wave 2 ended at 344.08. The ETF then made a strong rally in wave 3 towards 394.14. Pullback in wave 4 ended at 382.66 as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave 3, wave (a) ended at 389.46, wave (b) ended at 391.82, and wave (c) lower ended at 385.82. This completed wave ((w)). Rally in wave ((x)) ended at 390.74 as a flat structure.
Down from wave ((x)), wave (a) ended at 387.75, wave (b) ended at 390.23, and wave (c) ended at 382.66. This completed wave ((y)) of 4. The ETF has turned higher in wave 5. Up from wave 4, wave ((i)) ended at 390.36 as a leading diagonal and pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 384.70. QQQ rally in wave ((iii)) is now in progress. Up from wave ((ii)) low, wave (i) ended at 392.62 as another leading diagonal and wave (ii) correction completed at 390.96. Then wave (iii) rally ended at 395.79 and pullback in wave (iv) finished at 394.95. Near term, we are looking for one more leg higher to complete wave (v) of ((iii)). Afterwards, expect dips to find support in 3, 7, 11 swing as wave ((iv)) for further upside to complete the impulsive structure from 10.26.2023 low.
Nasdaq 100 Rally to All time HIghs - QQQNASDAQ:QQQ NASDAQ:NDX
Here's what I see shaping up in the Nasdaq 100
💡 Remember we do have two big news events this week . The inflation CPI # Tuesday and the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday.
These two events 📰will be huge market drivers. One or both could disappoint and cause a decent pullback.
Putting that aside for now I do see positioning and a technical target 🎯in the 430 range for QQQ.
Buckle up - it's going to be an interesting week
$QQQ level analysis 12.11.23These are the levels I will watch today for potential day trades and scalp setups.
$QQQ Bull flag formationNASDAQ:QQQ Looks like it has a Bull flag formation
Target in chart.
It must hold above the lower support line of the bull flag
QQQ: Will Start Falling! Here is Why:
The analysis of the QQQ chart clearly shows us that the pair is finally about to tank due to the rising pressure from the sellers.
❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
QQQ Massive Short! SELL!
My dear friends,
QQQ looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details:
The market is trading on 392.15 pivot level.
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear short signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bearish trend of the market.
Goal - 388.70
About Used Indicators:
Pivot points are a great way to identify areas of support and resistance, but they work best when combined with other kinds of technical analysis
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
QQQ Daily 0dte Play 12/07/23Good Morning,
Here is my plan for December 7th for 0dte on the QQQ symbol.
I have outlined some personal levels of support and resistance on chart including yellow horizontals to provide better visual of entry and exists.
We want to hit the long when the price breaks or dives below 385.26
We want to go short when price breaks or shoots above 387.70
As of the moment in writing this post, the price is at 386.30
As a rule of thumb, we want to procure 3 strikes away from ITM.
For longs we want to buy the 388 when it dives down, for shorts we want to go 384 when it ascends higher.
Soft profit target 30% but depending on volatility for the day , you may be able to ride it out.
With yesterdays spike pre market we procured the 386 PUTs for about 8c which later sold for around 30c a piece.
If the market opens significantly higher / lower, the middle points of the boxes are adjusted targets for longs/shorts.
Happy Trading !
relative performance of $QQQ vs. $IWMAMEX:IWM (Russell 2000 small-cap ETF) reached an all-time low in its relative performance vs. the NASDAQ:QQQ (Nasdaq large-cap ETF) last month. Today, however, AMEX:IWM has more than 2% of relative out-performance vs. $QQQ. And it had more than 2.5% of relative out-performance yesterday.
To give a sense of how rare this is: In the last 21 years (since the end of the dot-com crash) there were only 10 occasions when AMEX:IWM outperformed NASDAQ:QQQ by 2%+ on two consecutive trading days.
The dates:
2007-11-09:
This week brought the first rumbling of what would become the Great Financial Crash (GFC): NYSE:C CEO Prince resigned, NYSE:GM announced a $38.6B loss, Wachovia Bank, NYSE:JPM , and NYSE:BAC all warned about their exposure to subprime mortgages during that week. No wonder that large-caps got spanked.
2008-10-31:
The week before the US Presidential election, which would see Barack Obama win against John McCain. Also, one of the low points of the GFC: GDP growth for Q3 was announced to be weaker than any quarter since the 9/11 attacks, seven years earlier. Home prices were announced to have plunged by 18% in August, a record. Crude oil futures fell by 33% that week, and copper posted its worst performance in 40 years.
2016-11-10, 2016-11-11, 2016-11-14:
The week after Donald Trump won the election against Hillary Clinton. His agenda had a more domestic focus than Clinton's, so it made sense that small caps (which usually don't have global interests) stood to gain.
2020-04-09, 2020-04-28, 2020-05-27, 2020-11-10:
COVID. 'Nuff said.
2023-06-07:
The U.S. Treasury Potential Debt Default drama had a semi-happy ending.
To sum up: This extreme AMEX:IWM out-performance is often a symptom of an inflection point being reached. I wouldn't be surprised if we got at least a partial reversal tomorrow or on Wednesday, but I think that over the intermediate time frame the theme of small-cap out-performance has legs.
Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) ~ December 4H SwingNASDAQ:QQQ chart analysis/mapping.
QQQ ETF in consolidation phase after strong November rally.
Trading scenarios:
Further consolidation = descending trend-line (light blue) / multiple EMA confluence zone.
Continuation rally #1 = top range of Fib / ascending trend-line (green) confluence zone.
Shallow pullback #1 = 78.6% Fib / 200MA confluence zone.
Shallow pullback #2 = descending trend-line (white dotted)\
Deeper pullback #1 = gap fill / ascending trend-line (green) / Golden Pocket confluence zone.
Capitulation #1 = 50% Fib
Capitulation #2 = 38.2% Fib / gap fill / ascending trend-line (light blue) confluence zone.
Capitulation #3 = 23.6% Fib
QQQ Simple uncovered Call Option Example Here QQQ is shown on a 15-minute NASDAQ:QQQ chart. I have set up and executed a call option on QQQ.
This is a recap.
The first thing is to plan for the entry area. To do this I set a fixed range for the
volume profile for a couple of days before the trade. Since the trade was on Friday, December
1st, the volume profile began on Wednesday the 29th of November. While the volume profile
may seem complex to look at, I only paid attention to three values- the POC line representing
the price value of the highest amount of trades ( black line) the lower value of the high volume
area ( green line) and the highest value of the high volume area ( red line). The thesis is that
if a trade is taken at the green line with other confirmatory indications such as the fast hull
moving average reversing from a downtrend and the RSI testing the oversold area, that bullish
momentum will push the price to the POC line and perhaps higher if selling pressure from bear
trades do not grow to meet that challenge. The target is the upper line of the boundary of
the volume area while the strike price is the value closest to the POC line.
In this example, the strike price was 390 and the trade was for 10 call options for $ 0.49 each
for a total trade cost of $490. Although the calls expire on Monday December 4th, the trade
was closed when stock price hit the target. The total trade duration was about 2 hours and 10
minutes. The close had an option price of $1.86 yielding $1860 from the inital $490 placed
in the trade. The net profit of $ 1370 represents about $ 450 per hour for the time expended.
The risk with a 20% stop loss is about $100 which is 1% of a $10,000 account.
This is a very simple strategy that can be rinsed and repeated. It can be done with same day
approach or a longer expiration like 5-10 days depending on a trader's appetite for reward
relative to risk, time decay and uncertainties in the market relative to time.
$QQQ Buy Target 340NASDAQ:QQQ Buy Target 340
Buy Target 340…
I will be doing target projections all weekend... so let me know if there are any that you want to see... This allows me to see charts I may not have seen in a while...
This is not in in-depth analysis… this is pointing to where 5-year volatility shows as an excellent entry and over the years this has been one of my strongest tools….
This is, of course, off the top of the swing high so if we push higher then this will shift and I will update accordingly.
Canadian ETFs & Currency Hedging Attention, Canadians!
If you are Canadian or even an American who trades on the TSX, I want to bring some very interesting discoveries to your attention. If you read my last post on ETFs, those were all American-based. I was researching Canadian-based ETFs for a similar post, and I came across something absolutely interesting that I thought I would share here because it has significant advantages for Canadians, like myself, who actively trade US equities.
And what is this discovery, you ask? Well, it's the equally weighted ETFs of the S&P, NDX, and some stocks and crypto, of course! The best part? They are much cheaper than buying SPY or QQQ and much safer than holding UPRO or SPXL longer term because they are meant to be an investment mechanism, unlike UPRO and SPXL, which target speculative traders.
So let's get into it!
📈 TSX: QQEQ.F 📈
This is the equally weighted ETF, hedged for CAD, of the NASDAQ (Index: NDX, Futures: NQ1! But better known as QQQ). Currently, it is trading around $20.18 CAD. It's relatively new, hitting the market in May 2021, but it moves identically to QQQ (hence the equal weight). It is actually by the same company that manages QQQ (INVESCO).
You can see by the chart that it has pretty low volume at the moment:
But if we take a look at the gains on this vs QQQ, we will see that they are fairly comparable:
From our October low till now, QQQ did outperform slightly, but there is somewhat of an expected divergence in return relating to the effect of adjusting for currency.
The disadvantage is that volume is incredibly low on this, and I mean incredibly low. Looking at Yahoo Finance, on November 20th, only 400 shares were traded. On November 21st, 200 shares were traded, with no shares being traded between November 13 and November 15th. A little bizarre, but I am going to be trying it out because the gains are pretty identical to QQQ.
📈 TSX: EQL 📈
Another INVESCO treat, this has much better volume and is the equal weight of the S&P (AKA SPY) hedged in CAD. Also, very comparable performance:
Again, not precisely identical because of the effect of the currency exchange, but pretty good.
📈 TSX: TECH (or FANGMA) 📈
I chuckled at this name, FANGMA. Sounds like some kind of vampire thing. But I get it because the same goes for FAANG in general. This ticker has amazing volume and holds all the big-name tech. It comprises Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, Google, Microsoft, and Apple.
This is another equally weighted portfolio meant for investors interested in tech. It moves like any tech stock, averaging about 2 to 3% moves in a day. US volatility from the comfort of the TSX, who would've thought?
📈 TSX: BA 📈
One thing that I learned from uh, doing this little research here is that, in addition to maple syrup, licentiousness, and politeness, Canadians seem to enjoy their tech and airplanes. I suppose my love of BA is a shared delusion amongst us Canucks because the CAD Hedged Boeing shares have great volume and are highly traded on the TSX:
Again, pretty on par with the actual BA stock, in fact, pretty close:
And all for just $38.52 a share!
There are some other, more boring ones like:
US Yields: TSX: RUBH
But the more impressive one is:
₿ TSX: BTCC.B ₿
You know how the Americans were getting all hot and bothered by that new BTC ETF that is in the works? Well, Canada already had it in February 2021 in the form of BTCC.B:
It was the first and I think still is the only one (until the US ones receive approval) released that physically holds BTC. Thus, when you buy this ETF, you are actually holding BTC, vs the current BTC strategy ETFs which don't actually hold BTC.
Again, pretty similar, and this is like-to-like (BTCC.B vs BTCCAD).
📈 TSX: NVDA (NVIDIA CDR CAD HEDGED 📈
Yup yup. NVDA! Yay!
All at a cost of $44.47 CAD 🤑. With identical gains:
[https://www.tradingview.com/x/730KOCQb/
Again, expect a bit of variance in the gains owning to the currency fluctuations, but for the most part, as it is CAD hedged, it is attempted with the best efforts to mitigate extreme variations in currency exchange rates.
🤔 So what exactly is a "currency-hedged" stock and how is it "hedged" exactly? 🤔
This is a fantastic question and in researching this article and talking about these stocks, I was like "huh… what does this even mean?" So, a bit more research later, let me attempt to explain!
Currency hedging is a strategy used to mitigate the risk of currency fluctuations when investing in foreign assets. Currency-hedged funds use derivatives called futures to lock in a set exchange rate between two currencies. This means that the changes in the exchange rate between the two currencies will not affect the value of the fund, and investors will only get the movements of the underlying stocks.
For example, let's consider a theoretical stock (Ticker XXX) that is listed on the NYSE and its equivalent which is CAD hedged on the TSX. XXX on the NYSE is not currency hedged, which means that the value of the stock will be affected by the fluctuations in the exchange rate between the US dollar and the Canadian dollar (or whatever currency it is hedged on). On the other hand, XXX CAD hedged on the TSX is currency hedged, which means that the value of the stock will not be affected by the fluctuations in the exchange rate between the US dollar and the Canadian dollar.
To achieve currency hedging, the fund manager will use something called “currency forwards”, which are essentially futures contracts on currencies. Currency forwards allow the fund manager to lock in a specific exchange rate on a future date, which eliminates the effect of fluctuating exchange rates.
This is done in addition to holding the actual stock. Thus, investing in currency-hedged tickers does indeed affect the underlying, as more demand for currency-hedged XXX will increase the fund manager’s or institutions holding of XXX and thus increase the value of XXX through basic supply and demand principles. This also creates the ability, for sophisticated investors and those who read my post on arbitrage and pairs trading, to take advantage of pricing inefficiencies between the currency-hedged version and the actual stock, wink wink, hint hint 😉.
So, what are the advantages of holding CAD-hedged ETFs of US equities? 💰❓
There are actually many. First and foremost, if you are like me and very risk-averse, these are, at the end of the day, meant as investment mechanisms. It's not like holding UPRO or TQQQ or SQQQ, where there is inherent decay, and the longer you hold, the worse it gets. If a trade goes against me on a major US index, I can just wipe my hands and be like “Forget it. I’m in it to win it. I got time!” and never sell until I finally am in profit. It’s kind of the purpose of them!
But there are some other pragmatic advantages that I don’t think many people think about or even consider, especially Canadians. These include:
🎯 Stability: Currency exchange rates can be volatile and can significantly impact the returns of foreign investments. A currency-hedged ETF aims to reduce or eliminate the impact of currency fluctuations on the investment, providing a more stable return in the investor's home currency.
🎯 Easier Performance Evaluation: Hedging currency risk can make it easier for investors to evaluate the actual performance of the underlying assets in their home currency without the interference of currency movements.
🎯 Risk Reduction: Currency movements can introduce an additional layer of volatility to an investment portfolio. By hedging currency risk, investors can potentially reduce the overall volatility of their portfolio.
So should you use these instruments over buying pure SPY, QQQ or whatever else? Well, it depends. It depends on what you want to do with it. For me, this works well. However, for some who like to gain a little extra somethin’ somethin’ on the side and sell options against their shares, it’s probably going to be better to stick with trading the actual, “ official ” instrument.
This is something that I used to like to do, but buying 500 shares of SPY or QQQ significantly ties up a lot of capital. For the same capital it would take me to buy 500 shares of SPY, I could buy over 8,226 shares of EQL:
Let’s say I invested at the start of the uptrend in that chart above. Investing in EQL (8,226 shares), my profit here would have been $19,166.58 (or 13,982.50 USD adjusted for the current exchange) vs 500 shares of SPY on the same move being $5,630 (or 7,717 CAD adjusted for the current exchange):
But you don’t even need to go that aggressive; you do 3,000 shares of EQL, and the profit still is on part of that of SPY at much less cost. So while selling options and such could be an advantage, it's not the only consideration that should be minded.
But at the end of the day, the decision as to whether or not it’s the right way for you is a personal question. As a personal anecdote, as far as the indices are concerned, this is the way to go if you’re Canadian. I still invest in some US companies that I am a die-hard fan of (such as GRMN, BA — which will be shifted to equal investment of CAD hedged and actual BA, because I do like selling options on BA — IRDM, MSFT). I can sell options on those stocks already to supplement those earnings or those downfalls. Selling options on indices at this point isn’t all that appealing, especially with the crazy market swings. But again, personal decisions one must make!
And those are my thoughts; hope you learned something!
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QQQ Daily 0dte Play 11/30/23Good Morning,
Here is a plan for November 30th for 0dte on the QQQ symbol.
Got the highs and lows highlighted :
We want to hit the long when the price breaks below 389.08
We want to go short when price breaks 392.10
As a rule of thumb, we want to procure 3 strikes away from ITM. So for longs we want to go for 391 calls , for puts we go 389 puts respectively based on criteria met above.
Soft profit target 30%.
If the market opens significantly higher / lower, the middle points of the boxes are adjusted targets for longs/shorts.
Happy Trading !
Yields falling, Tech Falling!Are we seeing a divergence in the market?
Interest rates & yields have cooled off significantly in recent trading sessions thus providing the perfect tailwinds for tch to continue higher.
Todays price action saw Tech make a new nominal high as yields were falling but ended up reversing lower. The fact that tech appears to be selling off under falling yields will certainly have to be monitored.
QQQ/SPY Ratio QQQ/SPY Ratio , growth vs. core equity markets, holding on weekly long term averages for the time being, will be worth watching in weeks/months ahead.
