$QQQ Recap of Last Week Historic DrawdownA historic week with unprecedented tariffs not seen since right before the great depression.
NASDAQ:QQQ We broke many supports and are looking for Support
Stay Tuned - Today's Trading Range is coming out.
Don't rush into a trader just to trade - But also, if you see a great opportunity take it.
QQQ trade ideas
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 4-7 : POP In Counter Trend ModeToday's POP pattern in Counter Trend mode suggests the markets will find support and attempt to POP upward a bit.
I expect the SPY to attempt to reach levels above 505 today. Possibly trying to peak near 510.
The same thing will happen with the QQQ - a potential rally (POP) higher targeting the 420-425 level.
Watch this video TWICE if you really want to understand what is taking place in the markets right now.
The tariff issue will settle over the next 15+ days. The SPY/QQQ are moving into the EPP Consolidation Phase (just like I've been telling you for months now).
BTCUSD is moving into a BREAKDOWN phase and will likely target $63k over the next 30+ days.
Gold and Silver reacted to the breakdown of the SPY/QQQ as they always do - PANIC SELLING.
Now that the panic selling pressure appears to be subsiding, Gold and Silver should build a base and begin an explosive move higher - targeting $4200-4500 for gold and targeting $41-44 for silver.
We live in exciting times and I still believe the US markets will DOUBLE or TRIPLE over the next 5-10+ years.
Get Some.
QQQ Crashes to Demand Zone! Market on Edge After Tariff Shock๐ป Market ContextโจThe Nasdaq-100 ETF (QQQ) took a severe hit after Trumpโs proposed tariffs rattled the broader market. Investors fled risk-on assets, dragging tech-heavy indexes into a sharp sell-off. This capitulation-type flush aligns with the "risk-off" tone the options market has hinted at for days.
Technical Analysis (1H + SMC)โจQQQ broke structure decisively (BOS) and formed a bearish flag within a descending channel. Current price is hovering near the $420 supportโthis level acted as a major BOS zone, and weโre now testing it again from above.
The Smart Money Concepts (SMC) show multiple CHOCHs failing to reclaim higher liquidity zones around $475โ$480, marking this area as a strong distribution zone. MACD and Stoch RSI are near oversold levels, showing momentum exhaustion, but no clear bullish divergence yet.
A small consolidation box is forming just above the demand zone. If this zone holds, a short-term relief bounce to retest $440โ$448 could be in play. However, a breakdown below $419 would trigger further downside into the $405โ$400 region.
GEX-Based Options Sentiment (1H)
* Highest Negative NET GEX / PUT Support is currently at $420, aligning perfectly with our price action floor.
* GEX10 at $434 and GEX9 at $440โ443 form resistance blocks for any short-term bounce.
* The HVL at $475 (04/07 expiration) remains a major gamma magnet only if bulls reclaim $450+ levels.
From a flow standpoint:
* IVR: 101.8 โ Options are relatively expensive.
* IVx Avg: 56.7% โ Increasing volatility confirms fear.
* PUT$: 23.5% dominance โ Bearish pressure is heavy.
* GEX is deep in the bearish zone, with multiple red markers suggesting downside continuation risk is still high.
Scenarios to Watch
Bullish Scenario
* Price holds $420 and forms a higher low.
* Breakout above $440 opens door to $457 โ $475 zone.
* Risk-on confirmation if we reclaim $457 with strong volume.
Bearish Scenario
* Breakdown below $420 = major flush trigger.
* Price could cascade to $405โ$400 near previous fair value gaps.
* Put support levels are likely to absorb some of the sell-off, but sentiment is fragile.
Final ThoughtsโจThis is a high-volatility week. Institutions are hedging heavily. Donโt fight the trendโwatch for clear reclaim above $440 to go long. Otherwise, trade level to level and protect your capital.
QQQ is not yet safe for investmentโwait for reclaim above $457 and improving options sentiment before considering entries. For traders, short-term scalps off $420 with tight risk management are in play, but be prepared for violent swings.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and trade responsibly.
QQQ Selling Just StartingIf you have any illusions this will be a buy-the-dip market, you are taking on a major risk!
1. Last time QQQ sold off it lost 84%
2. It took 17 years to break even
3. It took much longer to break even inflation-adjusted
You can't buy low if you don't sell first. You don't have infinite money.
WARNING!
How bad will it get? Let's talk about it!๐ My Market Probabilities: ๐
1โฃ 15% chance of a V-Shape recovery with a bottom at $410โ$425
2โฃ 45% chance of a COVID-like Flash Crash resolving at
$385โ$400
3โฃ 33% chance of a 2022-level bear market down to
$330โ$350
4โฃ 5% chance of a 2008-level crash hitting $250โ$260
5โฃ 2% chance of a crazy Dot.com-level crash dropping to $90โ$110
๐ก No matter which scenario unfolds, itโs a blessing in disguise! These dips create incredible opportunities to invest in great companies or indexes like the AMEX:SPY or NASDAQ:QQQ paving the way for massive, life-changing wealth over the years and decades to come.
๐ Think long-term as an investor, friends, and stay focused on the bigger picture!
QQQ Stock Chart Fibonacci Analysis 040525Trading Idea
1) Find a FIBO slingshot
2) Check FIBO 61.80% level
3) Entry Point > 423/61.80%
Chart time frame: B
A) 15 min(1W-3M)
B) 1 hr(3M-6M)
C) 4 hr(6M-1year)
D) 1 day(1-3years)
Stock progress: C
A) Keep rising over 61.80% resistance
B) 61.80% resistance
C) 61.80% support
D) Hit the bottom
E) Hit the top
Stocks rise as they rise from support and fall from resistance. Our goal is to find a low support point and enter. It can be referred to as buying at the pullback point. The pullback point can be found with a Fibonacci extension of 61.80%. This is a step to find entry level. 1) Find a triangle (Fibonacci Speed Fan Line) that connects the high (resistance) and low (support) points of the stock in progress, where it is continuously expressed as a Slingshot, 2) and create a Fibonacci extension level for the first rising wave from the start point of slingshot pattern.
When the current price goes over 61.80% level , that can be a good entry point, especially if the SMA 100 and 200 curves are gathered together at 61.80%, it is a very good entry point.
As a great help, tradingview provides these Fibonacci speed fan lines and extension levels with ease. So if you use the Fibonacci fan line, the extension level, and the SMA 100/200 curve well, you can find an entry point for the stock market. At least you have to enter at this low point to avoid trading failure, and if you are skilled at entering this low point, with fibonacci6180 technique, your reading skill to chart will be greatly improved.
If you want to do day trading, please set the time frame to 5 minutes or 15 minutes, and you will see many of the low point of rising stocks.
If want to prefer long term range trading, you can set the time frame to 1 hr or 1 day.
QQQ: Tariff ReactionNASDAQ:QQQ As China strikes back with a 34% tariff on U.S. goods starting April 10, the global trade landscape could see some serious turbulence. This follows Trump's tariff moves, and the market's already feeling it: QQQโs daily chart shows capitulation volume on the table, suggesting a potential bounceโ IF tariffs ease.
But until these trade tensions subside, it's likely to be a rocky ride. Tariffs push prices up, inflation lingers, and the Fed finds itself boxed in. The outcome? A market crash, recession, and stagflationโyet, there's still hope for a bounce, depending on how these factors play out.
Manage the levels with us at ChartsCoach.
ONLY BULLISH short term wave count QQQPanic is now clear the question is todays drop a wave C in a zig zag or is it wave 3 of 3 Not sure I am taking long positions at 420 area if we break 416 then wave stucture should drop to 398/+or - 3.1for wave 3 of 3 to end . The 1987 decline took 55 days that drop was a full 38.2 % drop oct 19th that date would be april 15
Using Fibonacci/Measured Moves To Understand Price TargetThis video is really an answer to a question from a subscriber.
Can the SPY/QQQ move downward to touch COVID levels (pre-COVID High or COVID Low).
The answer is YES, it could move down far enough to touch the pre-COVID highs or COVID lows, but that would represent a very big BREAKDOWN of Fibonacci/ElliotWave price structure.
In other words, a breakdown of that magnitude would mean the markets have moved into a decidedly BEARISH trend and have broken the opportunity to potentially move substantially higher in 2025-2026 and beyond (at least for a while).
Price structure if very important to understand.
Measured moves happen all the time. They are part of Fibonacci Price Theory, Elliot Wave, and many of my proprietary price patterns.
Think of Measured Moves like waves on a beach. There are bigger waves, middle waves, smaller waves, and minute waves. They are all waves. But their size, magnitude, strength vary.
That is kind of what we are trying to measure using Fibonacci and Measured Move structures.
Watch this video. Tell me if you can see how these Measured Moves work and how to apply Fibonacci structure to them.
This is really the BASICS of price structure.
Get Some.
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The Bear Market Has Arrived - Key Levels to Watch SPY QQQ IWMIWM is the first of the major averages to enter into a technical bear market after falling over 20% from its recent highs. QQQ will likely be next followed by SPY. I think there's good potential for a short term bounce around this area, but I believe there's a lot more trouble ahead in the medium to long term and it could accelerate quickly if we don't see any quick relief here.
Time to buckle up, I'm afraid the worst is yet to come.
QQQ Slammed Below $465! Gamma Flip Confirmed QQQ Slammed Below $465! Gamma Flip Confirmed as Tariff Panic Grips Tech Sector
๐ Macro Context (April 2, 2025)
Trumpโs new tariff announcement this morning ignited fear of inflation returning and disrupted global trade expectations. That spooked big tech and growth-heavy indices like QQQ, triggering gamma-driven liquidation and a sharp intraday breakdown.
* Traders and dealers were not positioned for this headline โ the rapid IV expansion and negative delta hedging caused a cascading sell-off.
* From a GEX perspective, todayโs action triggered a flip below HVL ($471), with gamma accelerating downside volatility.
๐ Technical Breakdown โ 1H Chart
Price Action:
* QQQ attempted to push through $475โ$480, but got rejected violently.
* The huge red candle that nuked through $471 HVL and $469 confirmed a break of structure and bearish imbalance.
Support Zones:
* $455 โ being tested now; psychological and options-related level
* $453.86 โ todayโs session low
* $450โ$447 โ likely short-term gamma target if weakness persists
Resistance Levels:
* $465 โ 3rd PUT Wall
* $471 โ HVL (now major resistance)
* $474โ$477 โ stacked CALL walls and former support
๐ป Options GEX & Dealer Positioning
GEX Flow:
* ๐ด๐ด๐ต = Short Gamma territory, and itโs growing more negative.
* Highest GEX support has disintegrated, with dealers hedging by shorting into the drop.
* Net GEX flipped negative below $471, increasing volatility.
* Dealer gamma continues to point down, with no major PUT walls until $450 zone.
Options Sentiment:
* IVR 38.4 / IVx avg 35.6 โ slightly elevated vol, but with more room to rise
* PUTs 55.5% โ bearish lean confirmed
* Expiry in 2 days + tariff panic = likely continuation or high chop volatility tomorrow
๐ Trade Setups
๐ป Bearish Continuation (Preferred Bias)
* Entry: Below $453.50
* Target: $450 โ $447
* Stop: Above $458 reclaim
* Contract Idea: 0DTE or 2DTE $455P/$450P depending on risk appetite
* Note: Gamma trap zone from $455โ$450 likely to accelerate price movement
๐ Dead Cat Bounce Setup (Low Conviction)
* Only valid if QQQ reclaims $465+ with volume + positive options flow
* Target: $471โ$474
* Play with small size or debit spreads due to risk of gamma reversal
๐ Conclusion + My Thoughts
This tariff-triggered crash was unexpected, and it created a dealer short-gamma loop in QQQ. The break below $471 HVL turned the table fast. Unless QQQ quickly reclaims $465+, we're likely heading to test $450 levels in the coming sessions.
Tech tends to react aggressively to macro policy shifts, and the lack of near-term options support shows dealers are NOT stepping in. That opens the door for continued downside or extremely choppy relief rallies. Be fast. Be nimble.
๐ฏ Key Levels Recap:
๐ด HVL $471 Former support โ resistance
๐ป Support $455 / $453.86 Price and psychological
๐จ GEX Target $450 / $447 Dealer hedging likely
๐ผ Resistance $465โ$471 Gamma ceiling now
๐ข Final Tip: Watch VIX, bond yields, and /NQ overnight โ any panic escalation may turn this into a larger gamma-driven flush.
Disclaimer: For educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Always manage your risk and position sizing accordingly.
QQQ: Recent Rally has not Changed Downward Trend The data speaks for itselfโrecent upward rallies in #QQQ havenโt changed the downward trajectory, with little sign of a meaningful upward shift.
๐ The bullish trend that began in 2023 has reversed, forming a lower high at 490 (200-day MA), signaling a major downturn.
QQQ is Breaking the Trendline โ Could the Tech Rally be started?Market Structure & Price Action:
QQQ has broken out of a descending channel and printed a CHoCH to the upside around $471, shifting structure into a bullish stance. The breakout follows a clean reversal from the red demand zone near $463, suggesting institutional interest around that area. Price is now consolidating near $473.5โ$474 after a strong 3-bar rally and retest of prior highs.
Supply & Demand Zones:
* Demand Zone (Support): $463โ$465
* Supply Zone (Resistance): $495โ$497 (unmitigated upper green zone)
Support & Resistance Levels:
* Immediate Resistance: $474 (minor psychological level, aligning with trendline retest zone)
* Major Resistance: $495โ$497 (overhead supply)
* Support Levels: $470 > $465 > $463
Indicators:
* MACD: Still bullish, but showing some slowing momentum โ histogram flattening.
* Stoch RSI: In overbought territory โ may suggest short-term consolidation or pullback.
* Volume: Rising on the breakout, confirming strength.
Options GEX + Sentiment Analysis:
* Gamma Walls:
* CALL Wall (Resistant): $472 (64.62%) โ Price is currently sitting above this wall.
* Next Gamma Cluster: $474โ$476 (GEX9/GEX10) โ Potential short-term magnet.
* PUT Wall Support:
* $465โ$463 zone aligning with strong GEX put support and HVL (0DTE) โ strong defense.
* IV Rank (IVR): 40.6
* Implied Volatility vs Average (IVx avg): IV is above avg at 3.27%
* Sentiment: PUTS 52.6% | GEX shows ๐ข๐ข๐ข๐ก (Bullish leaning but hedged)
Trade Scenarios:
* Bullish Scenario:
* If QQQ holds above $472 and sustains above the GEX CALL Wall, we may see a move toward $476โ$480.
* A breakout above $480 could open the door for a test of the $495โ$497 upper supply zone.
* Bearish Scenario:
* Rejection at $474 and failure to hold $470 could push price back toward the $465โ$463 demand zone.
* Breakdown below $463 would invalidate the bullish thesis in the short term.
Conclusion:
QQQ is showing strength after breaking the descending structure, and options positioning supports a slow grind higher unless it gets rejected at $474. Watch for consolidation or a clean breakout to confirm momentum continuation. Bulls want to defend $470 on any pullback.
QQQ Call (Big Picture)Just marking up QQQ to look for an entry long-term. Looking at the big picture from the monthly, pulled out the Fibster to get my retracement levels. After breaking the trendline, looks like it can head down to 38.2% and head back up or further down to the 52W L. My prediction is that it will bounce from the support I see in the past, which is where I have it marked as an entry point. Let me know your thoughts if you see this.