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RIVN trade ideas

Rivian Update: Should Retrace for (ii)I have been pretty clear on my stance with Rivian thus far. I believe we are in the very beginning stages of it's wave III. If this line of thinking is correct, then this should be a VERY lucrative trade and one I intend to lean into a little harder. I'm watching for a 3 wave retrace into my box and will most likely start buying some more calls. I haven't shopped around yet so if y'all know of a contract with a strike around $25-$30 I'm all ears. Will most likely use a 60-120 day exp. I will update tomorrow as able. Bonam Fortunam, --Tyler
NASDAQ:RIVN
by TSuth
50
RIVIAN: Buy signal emerged.Rivian has found support inside April's HL Zone while the 1D RSI flattened. The 1D technical outlook is only slightly bearish (RSI = 42.485, MACD = -1.120, ADX = 38.728) despite being inside a Channel Down since July 27th. Technically it is replicating the January-April correction, which eventually bottomed when the 1D RSI flattened. We use the 1D MA200 rejection as a short term buy signal, aiming at the 1D MA50 (TP = 20.00). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
NASDAQ:RIVNLong
by InvestingScope
1
$RIVN Positive Gross Margin Within ReachRivian Automotive, Inc. (NASDAQ: RIVN) has been making strides this year as it has successfully increased its production and deliveries quarter over quarter throughout 2023. Despite the company’s impressive performance this year, its stock fell by as much as 33% since early October after it announced its intention to raise up to $1.725 billion in 3.625% green convertible senior notes due 2030. The EV startup raised the maximum amount it could from this offering, and with the offering something of the past, its PPS has the potential to recover thanks to its cost-saving endeavors that should allow it to post a gross profit in 2024 per management’s expectations. Given management’s track record of delivering on its promises, this dip could be an opportunity to go long on RIVN stock, especially with its Q3 earnings set to be released on November 7th. RIVN Fundamentals Persistent Cash Burn Ever since its inception, Rivian has been burning substantial amounts of cash as it is focused on manufacturing its vehicles using the best possible parts and technology. At the beginning of 2023, the company had $11.5 billion in cash on hand which dwindled to $9.2 billion by the end of Q2. That said, the company reported $942 million in short-term investments in the form of US Treasury securities and time deposits which boosted its liquidity position to $10.2 billion – meaning that it burned through $1.3 billion in the first half of the year. This issue is still persistent as Rivian projected its cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments to be $9.1 billion in Q3 in a recent SEC filing, meaning it burned through an additional $1.1 billion in the quarter. As such, it appears that the recent capital raise was necessary especially when considering that the EV startup’s priority is to maintain a strong balance sheet while scaling its future plans of launching its R2 models and its Georgia facility which is expected to begin producing vehicles in 2026. With this in mind, the company expects its liquidity position to be sufficient to fund its operations and capital expenditures through 2025. This is why I expect the EV startup to raise capital at least one more time in the future since it will have to burn cash to scale production in the Georgia facility. This may add pressure on the company since if it raises capital by selling equity, it would be diluting its shareholders, while if it heads to the debt market to raise capital, it risks its profitability prospects due to the high interest rates. Despite this, Rivian’s long-term prospects may still be bullish thanks to its management delivering on its promises as well as its ongoing and planned cost-saving measures that should allow it to start making money on the vehicles it sells. On the Right Track Towards Positive Margins Rivian is currently losing $33 thousand on every vehicle it sells per a recent Wall Street Journal report. This has led the company to task its engineers with cutting up to $40 thousand per vehicle in parts and production expenses per the same report. However, the company is still confident in its ability to achieve a gross profit by the end of 2024. That being said, Rivian has been making strides in improving its per-unit profitability as its gross profit per vehicle improved by $35 thousand in Q2 2023 due to cost reductions across materials, manufacturing, labor, overhead, and logistics, according to the company’s Q2 earnings call. Based on this, its gross margin improved substantially YoY from -193.41% to -36.75%. It is worth noting that the company’s cost of revenue included a $220 million charge to reflect the LCNRV of inventory and losses on firm purchase commitments. This means that the EV startup’s gross margin would have been -17.13% without accounting for the charge which shows the impressive job done by management to improve per-unit profitability. (in millions) Revenue $1,121 Cost of Revenue $1,533 Gross Margin -36.75% LCNRV Charge 220 CoR excluding LCNRV $1,313 Adjusted Gross Profit -$192 Adjusted Gross Margin -17.13% Considering that Rivian expects it won’t have material LCNRV inventory charges and losses on firm purchase commitments associated with goods manufactured at its Normal facility by the end of 2024, its target of positive gross margins by the end of 2024 appears to be realistic, especially since it is taking more measures that will further improve its per-unit profitability. Consolidating ECUs One of the biggest areas of improvement Rivian is making is its network architecture and consolidating a number of its ECUs into a smaller number of ECUs. These ECUs are little computers that have a specific set of functions that they control and they are found in all modern cars. The number of ECUs per vehicle has grown tremendously as automakers have been racing to add more technology to their vehicles which increases the cost of manufacturing a vehicle. As part of its hardware upgrade, Rivian is switching to a “zonal control architecture” which means that instead of an ECU having a specific role, the computers are tasked with zones or regions within the vehicles – reducing the number of ECUs and improving efficiency in turn. Ultimately, Rivian intends to reduce the number of ECUs in the vehicle by 60% which would result in a 25% reduction in the wiring harness length in the vehicle as detailed in the Q2 earnings call. The result of this is cost savings worth “multi-thousand” per vehicle according to CEO RJ Scaringe. Integrating Enduro Motors Another measure Rivian is taking to save costs is integrating its own Enduro drive – which was designed for the Amazon front-wheel-drive electric delivery vans – into its commercial vehicles. The Enduro motor is intended to be the basic motor used for the upcoming R2 vehicle platform that is expected to roll out in 2026 which will be geared toward smaller and more affordable vehicles that will broaden Rivian’s market reach. However, by integrating Enduro into its existing vehicles, the company is effectively saving costs while providing its vehicles with a performance edge. Currently, the original Bosch-supplied quad-motor still boasts the best figures with 835 horsepower. In comparison, the dual-motor Enduro delivers 533 horsepower while the performance version provides 665 horsepower. Max Battery Packs Although the Enduro-equipped trims pale in comparison to the quad-motor trim, Rivian has made its Max battery available for both trims which can be interpreted as the company making these trims more attractive while showcasing its capabilities ahead of the launch of R2 vehicles. Through the Max battery, the Rivian R1S SUV features a range of 400 miles which makes it the longest-range seven-passenger electric SUV on the market. Meanwhile, the Max battery provides 410 miles for the R1T pickup truck – making it the longest-range electric pickup on the market. The Max battery costs an additional $10 thousand over the Large battery and $16 thousand more than the smallest battery option. As these trims have a higher price point while costing less due to the inclusion of in-house Enduro motors, Rivian may further improve its gross margins in Q4 2023 since deliveries of R1S with the Max battery will start later this fall. Switching to LFP Batteries Rivian is also committed to switching its vehicles to LFP batteries from traditional NCM batteries, a move it already started implementing with its Amazon electric delivery vans earlier this year. This move will significantly drive down costs since LFP batteries are much cheaper than their NCM counterparts as iron phosphate, which is abundant and widely available, is one of the materials used in the production of LFP batteries. In contrast, NCM batteries use materials like cobalt and nickel which are more expensive and in limited supply. Additionally, all the minerals used in LFP batteries can be obtained in North America which means much lower transportation costs and a more secure supply chain. This is due to manganese being mostly sourced from China while cobalt is mainly found in the Democratic Republic of the Congo where the cobalt mining industry is under scrutiny due to human rights abuses. In this way, Rivian would manufacture its vehicles quicker – allowing for more production. Once all of these actions are successfully completed, Rivian expects the impact on the cost structure of its R1 program to be similar to the reductions on the EDV program where the company achieved a 35% reduction in material costs jointly with the shutdown that happened at the beginning of the year. On that note, Rivian is set to temporarily shut down its R1 line for retooling in the middle of 2024, per management in the Q2 earnings call. This shutdown should lead to lower costs while increasing the facility’s annual capacity from the current 65 thousand to 85 thousand and introducing new technologies. While the shutdown will certainly impact the company’s production and delivery figures in 2024, it will allow Rivian to implement the changes it needs to save costs and improve its chances of becoming profitable in the long term. Valuation Since Rivian is not profitable yet, using its forward P/S ratio to value it seems to be reasonable. As is, the EV startup is trading at 4.23 forward P/S which seems to be a bargain when comparing it to Tesla (Nasdaq: TSLA) which has nearly double Rivian’s forward P/S at 8.01. Moreover, when comparing Rivian’s forward P/S ratio with Lucid (Nasdaq: LCID), since both are EV Startups with negative margins, it also appears to be a bargain since Lucid boasts a forward P/S of 14.84 – more than triple that of Rivian. Based on this, Rivian may be at an extremely attractive valuation at current levels. Risks In addition to the company potentially raising capital again, there is another risk to the bullish thesis which is the current macro environment. With student loan repayments resuming last month after a 3-year pause, consumers may be forced to cut their spending to pay their debts which could leave fewer consumers able to buy a new vehicle. Considering that Rivian’s vehicles are considered to be luxury vehicles given their price point, its sales may be impacted which could see its margins deteriorate. Technical Analysis On the hourly chart, RIVN stock is in a bearish trend as it is trading in a downward channel. Looking at the indicators, the stock is above the 200, 50, and 21 MAs which is a bullish sign. Meanwhile, the RSI is approaching overbought at 66 and the MACD is approaching a bearish crossover. As for the fundamentals, the company’s upcoming Q3 earnings on November 7th will be a major catalyst as investors are anticipating further improvements in gross margin. This could be driven by Rivian’s efforts to save costs which will reflect on its profitability. As such, bullish investors could wait for a successful break of the upper trendline and the $18.2 resistance to go long on RIVN stock ahead of its earnings. RIVN Forecast While Rivian’s cash burn rate and its potential to raise capital for at least one more time are risks to consider, the EV startup may be well-positioned to weather the storm thanks to its management’s efforts to improve its profitability prospects. The EV startup improved its gross margin significantly in Q2 2023 which shows that management’s initial actions are successful. With that in mind, the company will temporarily shut down its R1 line in the middle of 2024 to implement the changes that will help it post a positive gross profit by the end of 2024 by consolidating its ECUs, continuing to integrate Enduro motors into R1 vehicles, and switching to LFP batteries. With the stock trading at a discount compared to EV giant Tesla and startup Lucid based on their forward P/S ratio, the current dip could be an opportunity to go long on RIVN stock.
NASDAQ:RIVN
by Penny_Stocks_Today
RIVN Rivian Automotive Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold RIVN ahead of the previous earnings: or here: Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of RIVN Rivian Automotive prior to the earnings report this week, I would consider purchasing the 18.50usd strike price Calls with an expiration date of 2023-11-17, for a premium of approximately $0.89. If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
NASDAQ:RIVNLong
by TopgOptions
Rivian Update: Retrace Coming UpHow many here love EWT??? I know I do!!! At the very minimum it told us that price was about to turn around and head higher. I have a follower that stated they were already up 90% on some options they entered. Tell me, what other kind of methods can produce those type of results?? I'll wait... On the chart I used the 15min which is the smallest I can use for a public post. I left the mini 5 wave count on there from the beginning of this move up to signify the importance of it. It's hard to sustain a new trend without a healthy move to start it off. After the initial 5-wave we had a 3-wave retrace into wave ii. Wave iii really stands out as it is the most powerful move in this structure. On the 3min it suggests we have topped on neg div and will head lower tomorrow in our micro-wave (ii). However, on the larger time frame it appears as if we need OMH to finish out this move up and the fibs support OMH. At this time though, the OMH is my ALT as signified by the turquoise count and yellow box. Once we start to retrace for (ii) I will make an update with the target to the post through a comment. At this time, I expect it to be in the mid-low $16 range. It is on this wave (ii) that I intend to purchase more calls should price behave appropriately. I will make an update on here if I place any trades. Bonam Fortunam, --Tyler
NASDAQ:RIVN
by TSuth
14
Rivian Update: Did we bottom yet?Today I bought another 20 calls that exp 01/24 with a strike of $25. That gives me a total of 40 calls @ $0.40cents avg price. If price makes another low, I might just buy another 10-20 calls. Today however, we hit $0.01 from the 0.786 fib retracement and proceeded to have a pretty strong retrace after that. On the 3min chart we came just shy of making a new high on MACD. Had we made that new high, I would say probability we bottomed to be high. Since we didn't, I would say there is a 50/50 shot at this time. Should we continue to raise tomorrow and make that new high then it will be a nice big indicator we're headed up. Until we get our answers, I am content with my positioning. Should price move in my favor this will be a very lucrative trade. Good Luck all!! Bonam Fortunam, --Tyler
NASDAQ:RIVN
by TSuth
20
RIVIAN hit the long-term Buy Zone. Target $21.00.Rivian Automotive (RIVN) hit the Higher Lows Zone and the 1D MACD is close to forming a Bullish Cross. This is a strong bullish combo signal but attention is needed as the price is below both the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). The pattern since the July 27 top is a Bearish Megaphone and Tuesday's low isn't only a Higher Low on the Support Zone but also a technical Lower Low on the Megaphone's bottom. The previous Lower Low rebound formed a top on the 0.618 Fibonacci level. As a result our short-term bullish target is $21.00. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NASDAQ:RIVNLong
by TradingShot
5
Rivian Update: OML?Boxes on boxes on boxes lol. I'm sure y'all noticed that there are three boxes on this chart. I decided to leave these boxes as I have been able to refine price a couple times to a more accurate area over time. This last move up looks corrective to me and given how small micro-wave 2 was that doesn't really surprise me micro-wave 4 would be larger. We made what some would call a "triple top" right at the 0.382 fib retracement of micro-wave 3 which is a common end point for wave 4's. If I am correct and this last move up is still apart of wave v of (C) of II, then OML is on the menu. This is where the smallest box comes in. It is my most recent target and where I believe price will conclude this descent down. With-in this box is the 0.786 fib retracement of the entire wave I, 1.382 of primary (A)-(B) of wave II, and major fib confluence right in the center of the box. I didn't place it there due to the fib confluence either. The fib conf. is just another indicator that price is very likely to bottom there. There is the possibility that we have bottomed already and should move much higher soon but that has changed to my ALT count. For those that will no doubt be wondering, I am holding on to these calls as they don't expire until January of next year. If price does make a bottom in my target area, then I will buy another 20 contracts minimum as I feel it is a great buy and a potentially very lucrative position. Bonam Fortunam, --Tyler
NASDAQ:RIVN
by TSuth
9
Rivian Update: Retrace Nearly CompleteA follower had asked me to update on Rivian the other day so I figured I'd fill y'all in. Although I haven't been posting on it, I have still been tracking Rivian. We have been progressing nicely in our wave II retrace...almost too nicely. We have completed our (A)-(B) waves and carved out what appears to be waves 1-4 of our C wave (working on the 4th or 5th now). What I expect to see next is a micro-5-wave count down to around the 1.382 fib line. We could extend out to the 1.618 though so be prepared for that. The secret is in the structure. One thing I want to make you aware of is that we touched the 1.0 of the (A)-(B) wave and one could argue we have a completed structure for (C). If this is to be the case, we would want to see a HUGE jump up in a very bullish scenario to push us to high $30's - low $40's. The structure off of the $17.35 low doesn't seem bullish to me though. It's overlapping and corrective. For this reason, I believe we still have lower to go. I will post if/when I make any trades on Rivian. Bonam Fortunam, --Tyler
NASDAQ:RIVNShort
by TSuth
13
Rivian is trading in a dangerous zone - be patientHello , Although Rivian, since it deals with electric cars, is obviously a highly speculative paper. (Since everyone is looking for the next Tesla right now.) If you're thinking about buying Rivian stock, keep in mind that the red zone is a neutral level. The exchange rate moves in exactly one area, where it can move up and down by 10-20%. So it is not worth taking a position here in any way. Because it would be suicide. All important things are visible on the graph. Below the red zone, the $13 level could be a good buy zone. Above the red zone, the $38 price target looks realistic. Do not forget. This does not constitute investment advice. Do your own research before entering a position. Regards In extreme cases, we can count on new lows. But this would be triggered by very negative news that directly affects the company or the EV sector.
NASDAQ:RIVN
by XOX_XOX
Rivian Could Be Skidding LowerRivian Automotive skidded lower in August. Now, after a period of consolidation, traders may think more downside is coming. The first pattern on today’s chart is the 50-day simple moving average (SMA). RIVN initially tied to hold this intermediate-term trend in late August and early September. But it’s turned lower in the past month. Second, RIVN bounced at its 200-day SMA last week. Prices returned quickly to this point yesterday, which could suggest it’s in the process of breaking. Next is the September 25 low around $20. The electric pickup maker knifed through that level on October 5 after announcing a secondary stock offering. The shares peaked there on Tuesday. Has old support become new resistance? (This price zone also represented an approximate low in late August before the stock bounced.) Finally, MACD has been falling for most of the past month. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more. Important Information TradeStation Securities, Inc., TradeStation Crypto, Inc., and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., all operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. TradeStation Crypto, Inc. offers to self-directed investors and traders cryptocurrency brokerage services. It is neither licensed with the SEC or the CFTC nor is it a Member of NFA. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products, and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Please click here for further important information explaining what this means. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not a recommendation regarding any investment or investment strategy. Any opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of TradeStation or any of its affiliates. Investing involves risks. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options, futures, or digital assets); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Before trading any asset class, first read the relevant risk disclosure statements on the Important Documents page, found here: www.tradestation.com .
NASDAQ:RIVN
by TradeStation
RIVN, 10d/27.58%rising cycle 27.58% more than 10 days. ================================================================================== This data is analyzed by robots. Analyze historical trends based on The Adam Theory of Markets (20 moving averages/60 moving averages/120 moving averages/240 moving averages) and estimate the trend in the next 10 days. The white line is the robot's expected price, and the upper and lower horizontal line stop loss and stop profit prices have no financial basis. The results are for reference only.
NASDAQ:RIVNLong
by Tonyder
1
$RIVN's Key Buy Levels After 20%+ Intraday DeclineNEWS Rivian Automotive Inc's made the decision to issue $1.5 billion worth of convertible green bonds.Here's a breakdown of what's happening: Share Price Drop: Rivian's stock price plummeted by over 20% on the day of the announcement. It's the most significant daily percentage decline for the company's shares since May of the previous year. Convertible Green Bonds: The company announced its intention to issue $1.5 billion in convertible green bonds. Convertible bonds are debt securities that can be converted into a company's stock under specific conditions. Being labeled as "green" means the funds raised from these bonds are earmarked for environmentally friendly or climate-focused projects. Purpose of the Bonds: Rivian intends to use the proceeds from the bond sale to support the launch of its R2 sports utility vehicle in Georgia. By doing so, they aim to "de-risk" this vehicle's launch, implying they're using the funds to mitigate potential financial challenges or uncertainties associated with this launch. Not the First Time: This isn't Rivian's first foray into green bonds. The company issued a $1.3 billion convertible green bond in March of the same year to support another vehicle family launch. Market Reaction and Analysis: Elliot Johnson from Evolve ETFs commented that the decision to raise funds came earlier than what the market expected. While Rivian's earnings matched expectations, and they are on course with vehicle shipments, the early fundraising and potential dilution of shares from the convertible bonds might concern investors. Rivian, still seen by some as a speculative business, is raising capital ahead of anticipated timelines, which could be perceived as a sign of cash flow challenges or other unexpected expenses. Rivian's Performance and Cash Position: Rivian, competing in the electric vehicle market against giants like Tesla, has been investing heavily to boost production. Despite these investments, they have posted positive production and delivery numbers. They've forecasted substantial revenue growth and, as of the end of September, held $9.1 billion in cash reserves, albeit down from $10.2 billion a few months earlier. The CEO had previously indicated that the company's available funds were sufficient to sustain operations till 2025 while controlling costs. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS The news went public when RIVN was sitting at the white resistance line, and RIVN has already suffered a 20%+ decline today. I believe that the bleeding has just started, and there are two key price levels where RIVN could potentially bottom out over the next few weeks. The first is the orange support level, and the second is the yellow support zone. I believe that RIVN will have a strong rebound once this bottoms out, and will continue to give updates when a buy opportunity is presented. There is a Ichimoku cloud of resistance that is suppressing RIVN's price at current price levels, the RSI has a lot of room to drop, and this bearish news has caused RIVN to lose support at the midrange of the Bollinger Band. The EMA ribbon is also acting as a zone of resistance that is suppressing RIVN's price.
NASDAQ:RIVNShort
by realchartchamp
Analyzing RIVN's Outperformance Over TSLA Amidst Cash BurnToday, I would like to draw your attention to an intriguing market trend that has caught the attention of many investors - the outperformance of RIVN stock compared to TSLA, despite RIVN's ongoing cash burn. While this phenomenon may raise eyebrows, it is essential to approach it with a cautious and analytical mindset. Let's delve into the reasons behind this unexpected market behavior and explore why some investors are considering a long position on RIVN. 1. Dissecting RIVN's Outperformance: a) Market Sentiment: Investors are drawn to RIVN's potential as a disruptor in the EV industry, which has fueled a positive market sentiment. b) Growth Prospects: RIVN's innovative technologies, such as its autonomous driving capabilities and unique battery technology, have garnered attention for their potential to revolutionize the EV market. c) Competitive Advantage: RIVN's focus on the luxury EV segment, along with its strong brand image, has positioned the company as a formidable competitor to TSLA. 1. Understanding RIVN's Cash Burn 2. A Cautious Call-to-Action a) In-depth Research: Dive into RIVN's financial reports, growth projections, and competitive landscape to gain a comprehensive understanding of the company's position. b) Risk Assessment: Evaluate the risks associated with RIVN's cash burn and weigh them against the potential rewards of its growth prospects. c) Diversification: Ensure that any investment in RIVN aligns with your overall investment strategy and risk tolerance. Diversify your portfolio to mitigate potential risks. d) Expert Opinions: Seek insights from trusted financial advisors or industry experts who can provide informed opinions on RIVN's prospects. In conclusion, RIVN's outperformance over TSLA, despite its cash burn, has sparked interest among investors. However, it is vital to approach this opportunity with caution and conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions. Remember, the stock market is inherently unpredictable, and it is crucial to make informed choices based on a well-rounded analysis of the available information.
NASDAQ:RIVNLong
by bryandowningqln
RIVIAN This channel can lead it to $32Rivian closed the week over the MA50 (1d) and since it held both the MA200 (1d) and Support (1) intact, has most likely invalidated the scenario of Lower Lows. We may see a 4-6 upward consolidation first as last March-May, before a new yearly High. Trading Plan: 1. Buy on the opening price. Targets: 1. 32.00 (Fibonacci Channel 3.0 extension). Tips: 1. The RSI (1d) crossed over its Falling Resistance. A strong sign of accumulated bullish momentum. Please like, follow and comment!!
NASDAQ:RIVNLong
by TradingBrokersView
5