Rivian price action on the reversal of the market to longFib channel projection is an estimate, but it's based on all the key trend lines and levels that were tested on the way down. Safe investing in anything would wait for the spike and the pull back into April or May for buying. Purchasing the next dip is a "catching the knife" scenario. However, Rivian is showing a strong accumulation. The final push will be unclear. But I think my chart is accurate and will be going in at 35 or so.
RIVN trade ideas
$RIVN - Ready to Make New LowsEarnings were not kind to $LCID.
Lucid Group cut its car production forecast for this year by as much as 40%.
The company cited supply chain constraints and parts quality issues for slashing production to between 12,000 and 14,000 vehicles, down from initial expectations of 20,000.
“This reflects the extraordinary supply chain and logistics challenges we’ve encountered and our unrelenting focus on delivering the highest-quality products,” Lucid CEO Peter Rawlinson said in a statement. “We remain confident in our ability to capture the tremendous opportunities ahead given our technology leadership and strong demand for our cars.”
It hasn't been much different for car companies across the world, EV or not.
This brings us to RIVN. A stock that has been cratering from its highs earlier this year. They report earnings on March 10th. The same day CPI is released. Talk about a double whammy.
Supply chain constraints remain and I expect RIVN to guide in a very similar manner to LCID. They are both in the early innings of their life cycle as companies and not as well equipped to handle inflationary and supply risks like the seasoned TSLA. Until this point I had not even mentioned the tremendous chip shortage.
Expect RIVN to only make new lows from here on out with this inverted cup and handle setup as noted above.
After hours sell off - low volume but still suspiciousNASDAQ:RIVN
Bought a few 60 March 18 puts on the close. Rsi turning down. Oil price high so everyone going to buy a Rivian now? Hedge funds disclosed positions held in Q4 21 but does anyone know if in fact the positions are still active? So much hope here for a company that still hasn't brought a mass produced product to mass market. Probably won't for years and not to mention the intense competition from other manufacturers. When I see a huge market cap on little more than promises and hope for the future, I need to call BS lol.
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Rivn trade recap I bought Rivn at the trend line while Spy and Qqq were at a major support. The risk to reward for Rivn is about 5-1 and with spy and Qqq at support i was even more confident in this play. I also decided to get shares instead of option contracts because the Iv on contracts where extremely high. After Rivn shot up 4 percent after I got in, I moved my stop loss to .5% in the green so if Rivn did come back down it would still be in profit.
RIVN RIVAIN looking for entry point - possible scenarioAssumption
the bearish movement starting from 180 USD is over:
Correction as ABC wave:
A ending at 107 (length 73)
B ending at 127
C ending at 50 (length 77)
--> A and C wave almost equal, this matches well
--->invalidation under 50, this would mean a longer correction in WXY for instance
This would mean, impulse wave is in formation
1st wave up to 70 USD
wave 2 ongoing, for instance as an ABC again
correction in 5 waves to 56 --> A wave
B wave leading to double top around 71
C wave ongoing in 5 waves
--> invalidation above the last highs
--> alternative: the double top is a X wave, Y wave ongoing
Possible targets for going long
gap 59,34
fibo around 57
stop under 50
Human vs MachinesChart patterns detection needs an extensive learning process and experience, no matter if you are a human or a machine!
Machine Learning Workflow:
There are five core tasks in the common ML workflow:
1. Get Data
2. Clean, Prepare & Manipulate Data
3. Train Model
4. Test Model
5. Improve
Since the chart patterns, beta version indicator has been released, I started working with it to find out how it works.
In the following examples, you will see the comparison between my pattern (left side) and platform pattern (right side)!
I activate the triangle, pennant, and wedge pattern indicator..!
1- Daily chart: machines did not detect anything:
2- 4 hours chart: machines did not detect anything:
3- 4 hour charts: I changed the regular time to extended hours!
Finally, the machine detects something..!
Educational point:
There are hundreds of thousands of indicators and oscillators out there, some work, some don't!
The question is:
Are you able to use them correctly and increase their performance???
Think about it..!
Best,
Moshkelgosha
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
Rivian Stock RIVN Strength SignalsRivian stock RIVN has rallied 5.87% Wednesday to close at $64.53. The stock has shown some strength recently aiming for the downward trend’s reversal after confirming the formation of both; higher low, and a bottoming reversal pattern.
The stock RIVN could extend its rally hitting 23.60% Fibonacci retracement level that corresponds to the reversal pattern’s minimum target at $80.60 point on the short term.
How many years need to recover???Do you think these stocks will b able to get back to their all-time high once again?
While Inflation getting high and soon we will see rate hikes and they are burning cash instead of generating ???
According to the current data, they are not profitable and will not be in the next 3 years. Moreover, RIVN has less than a 1-year cash runway..!
This means sooner or later RIVN shareholders will be diluted..!
They both experience a -58 and -54% drop after the last time I compare them..!
I would like to finish with Charlie Munger's quote:
“Capitalism without failure is like religion without hell.”
Best,
Moshkelgosha
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
The similaries between bubbles!On the right side, you see Workhorse and Arrival, two EV makers (with commercial purposes) that lost 92-93% of their value in the past trading year!
On the left side, you see Rivian which lost 71% of its value in the past 70 days..!
I think there is a high chance Rivian go down to 15(-90% from its top) in a year or so..! current price is 60 which means you may lose 75% of your investment in less than a year!
A bubble is an economic cycle that is characterized by the rapid escalation of market value, particularly in the price of assets.
This fast inflation is followed by a quick decrease in value or a contraction, which is sometimes referred to as a "crash" or a "bubble burst."
Bubbles are typically attributed to a change in investor behavior, although what causes this change in behavior is debated. (Investopedia)
www.investopedia.com
If you want more examples: SOLO, GOEV, NKLA, and RIDE..!
Best,
Moshkelgosha
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
Looking for a potential beginning accumulation structureIt's too early to say, and, take with a grain of salt. But I think it's worth watching from here in case this is the beginning of a lateral accumulation movement. I'll be watching for more key events such as an automatic rally to the top of the structure, and over time further tests of each side. We'll have to wait and see. Clearly the stock came out over valued, had a typical IPO pump and dump, so it makes sense for investors to look for a lower accumulation zone. Hopefully this is a suitable location. PS... I am but a learner of the wyckoff method. ;)
RIVIAN PRICE ACTION PROJECTIONHorizontal fib sets up the final level, based on that, I draw out a possible up channel. Today, the rally exactly got stopped by one of those red fib channel lines, confirming relevance further. I suggest final low price is then 20.44 and anything under 21 is a dip buy for a run to at least 80-120. I'd guess the top of red channel is the sell point. I do not expect new highs, I believe the market will dump after large swings for the rest of the year. I think Tesla will be under 500 in December and Rivian will have settled out again toward the lower end of range. These are short holds through peaks. 2 months or so.