Cassava Sciences, Inc. Stock Forum (NASDAQ:SAVA)

Are they going bankrupt?

1. **Cash-Per-Share Valuation (Liquidation Floor)**
This is one of the **most conservative ways** to value a biotech company with no commercial products.

- **Cash on hand (Q3 2024):** ~$149 million
- **Shares outstanding:** ~40 million
- **Cash per share:** ~$149M ÷ 40M = **~$3.72/share**

This gives you a **"cash floor"**, or a theoretical valuation if the company shut down today.

✅ So, **$3.72 or below** might be considered a **“low-risk” price**, assuming:
- You’re betting the company still has value through its remaining assets or IP.
- You're not expecting near-term success from its Alzheimer's pipeline (since simufilam failed Phase 3).

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2. **Speculative Upside Scenarios**
If you’re comfortable with **high risk/reward**, some traders or long-term speculators may see prices under **$5–6** as "undervalued" given:
- Past prices above $100
- Ongoing research or litigation outcomes
- Possibility of new trials or partnerships

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📉 Current Market Sentiment
Since the simufilam failure, the stock has plummeted below $3 (as of recent reports). This means **market confidence is low**, and any rebound depends on:
- New pipeline developments
- M&A rumors
- Unexpected trial restarts or IP monetization

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### ✅ Takeaway:
| Price Range | Risk Level | Explanation |
|-------------|------------|-------------|
| **<$3.72** | 🟢 Low(er) Risk | Close to cash per share — “liquidation floor” |
| **$3.72–$6** | 🟡 Moderate Risk | Betting on a bounce or some asset value |
| **>$6** | 🔴 High Risk | Pricing in recovery or new success story |