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SMCI trade ideas

Super Micro Tanks 19% After Failing to Provide Financial ResultsSuper Micro Computer ( NASDAQ:SMCI ) experienced a significant drop in its stock price after failing to provide any preliminary financial results. The data center computer specialist announced the date for its next quarterly earnings report, which is scheduled for release after the market close on April 30. However, unlike in recent quarters, SMCI did not offer an early look at its results. As a result, SMCI stock plunged below a key support level, flashing a huge sell signal. NASDAQ:SMCI is based in San Jose, California, and is better known as Supermicro. The company has been the beneficiary of hyperscale cloud service providers investing in servers for artificial intelligence applications. SMCI stock was added to the S&P 500 last month. In recent years, Super Micro has released preliminary results with the announcement of its quarterly earnings date, including the last two fiscal third quarters. However, this time, the company did not offer any early look at its results. In morning trades on the stock market, SMCI stock's value dived 18% to 757.51. With this move, it gapped below its 50-day moving average line, a key support level, in above-average trading volume. SMCI stock had been holding to that level during the recent market turmoil. Super Micro stock is 19% below its 10-week moving average, which is a sell signal for a longtime winner even if it's just 2% below the 10-week line. On Jan. 19, Super Micro shares skyrocketed 35.9% to close at 423.36 after the company disclosed preliminary results with its fiscal-Q2 earnings report date. That sparked a run that finally peaked at 1,229 on March 8. Analysts are predicting Super Micro earnings of $5.84 a share on sales of $4.01 billion for the fiscal third quarter ended March 31. If this is accurate, it would translate to year-over-year growth of 258% in earnings and 212% in sales.
NASDAQ:SMCIShort
by DEXWireNews
SMCI LONGBullish Context: Monthly uptrend, weekly uptrend Price Position: Near last month low Pattern: price has shaped daily uptrend (higher low and higher high); weekly higher low is set This is an opportunity for LONG play with profit target near previous month high. In order for this setup to work price must first break through synthetic diagonal resistance; in case of pullback bulls must protect last daily low (881) Disclaimer I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
NASDAQ:SMCILong
by hermes_trisme
1
SMCI, Correction Notice, Price to follow the Money Flow IndexI have always said that Price will follow the Money Flow Index especially when you have Neutral Price Action or a price trending opposite to the MFI; when there is a Strong Divergence contrary to that Price Action I've found that 96% of the time the Price will correct to follow the MFI either up or down. In this SMCI 4 Hr chart you can clearly see one set up from 2 weeks back with a Bullish Divergence on the MFI as the Price was trending relatively Neutral and then all of a sudden the price jumped over the span of 2 days. Now it has gone in the opposite direction with an even stronger Bearish Divergence on the MFI as the price has continued to move higher. Whenever you see these setups it's a critical time to assess your trading strategy and positions and determine how you may wish to adjust your plan. Keep in mind that the longer the divergence the stronger or more likely the correction is to happen.
NASDAQ:SMCIShort
by grahammk
20
SMCI March 29, 2024: A Head & Shoulder FormingNASDAQ:SMCI is a clear leader during this bull market. However, after a 260% run-up from a previous buy point as shown on the chart, the stock is struggling to move up further. Now it might slowly form a Head & Shoulders Pattern, and a breakdown through the neckline would signal a sell. Interestingly, the neckline is right near the 50-day moving average (blue line), therefore a breakdown there will be an even stronger sell signal.
NASDAQ:SMCI
by longsonvn
SMCI IS it overextended or hunting for thin air LONGSMCI is intimate with NVDA and the couple are doing quite well. I got some more at $750 and 2 days ago. Predictive Modeling is suggesting a $1000 price by Tuesday afternoon. That would be a 33% return in less than a week. The chart shows the bull flag after the reversal out of the down trend where I bought upon the mass index signaling. The AI indicator suggests a slowly rising parallel channel with the upper boundary in the $1000 range. It suggests an interval nano-dip in the premarket on Monday for a buy at the opening bell. I am good with that. I have high confidence here due to the overall trend strength of AI. Software also NOW, DDOG,CRM SNOW .......
NASDAQ:SMCILong
by AwesomeAvani
5
SMCI - consolidated - ? Continuation or ? Reversal SMCI has been on an impressive trend up since the first day of the trading year. On the 15 minute chart It had a healthy 12% pull back about February 22-29 but then rallied again on a reversal upside to nearly the ATH of $ 1075 set on Friday 2/16. I note that traders like to trade SMCI on Fridays and likely are chasing same day expiration call options. I know this because I have been one of them. SMCI is now in a high tight bull flag pattern. Typically this is bullish for another leg up of equal magnitude after consolidation. I will suppose the probability of a breakout higher is 75% and breakdown 25%. I may play this with a set of stop orders. A buy stop at $ 1030 and a sell stop at $ 1005 with a share proportion set equally. When SMCA breaks from the consolidation one of the two orders will trigger while the other will be in play until cancelled or triggered. My bullish bias is that the buy stop will trigger and I will miss only a small piece of the price action in the initial continuation. I will assess for a call option trade upon continuation. The volatility indicator helps me pick entries with an alert set for volatility beyond the running mean either bullish or bearish.
NASDAQ:SMCILong
by AwesomeAvani
What do you Think about this chart?Investor Psychology and the Recipe for Bubbles: How Emotions Fuel Unsustainable Growth The allure of quick gains and the fear of missing out can create a powerful cocktail that fuels stock market bubbles. These periods of rapid price inflation, often disconnected from a company's fundamentals, are fueled by specific investor behaviors that can be both fascinating and destructive. Let's delve into the psychological factors that contribute to bubble formation: 1. Herd Mentality: Humans are social creatures, and this extends to the investment world. When we see others making money on a particular stock, a natural tendency emerges - to follow suit. This "herd mentality" amplifies gains and losses, as investors rush to buy (or sell) based on what others are doing rather than conducting their own due diligence. 2. Anchoring Bias: Investors often fixate on an initial piece of information, like a stock's price or analyst rating, and use it as a reference point for future decisions. This "anchoring bias" can lead them to ignore negative information or cling to overly optimistic outlooks, even when reality contradicts them. 3. Confirmation Bias: Humans are naturally drawn to information that confirms their existing beliefs. In the context of bubbles, this can manifest as investors seeking out news and analysis that reinforces their bullish sentiment, while ignoring any bearish signals or red flags. 4. Overconfidence: Investors often overestimate their knowledge and ability to predict the market. This "overconfidence" can lead them to take on excessive risk, making them more susceptible to the allure of overvalued stocks in a bubble environment. 5. Fear of Missing Out (FOMO): The fear of missing out, or FOMO, is a powerful motivator that can drive irrational behavior. When investors see others profiting from a hot stock, they may be tempted to jump in, even at inflated prices, simply to avoid regret later. These psychological factors, combined with external factors like low interest rates and media hype, can create a self-fulfilling prophecy. As more investors pile into a specific stock or sector, demand outstrips supply, pushing prices higher. This reinforces the initial belief in the stock's potential, attracting even more investors, further inflating the bubble. However, bubbles are inherently unsustainable. Eventually, reality sets in, fundamentals catch up, and the bubble bursts. This can lead to significant losses for investors who were caught in the euphoria. Therefore, understanding the psychological drivers of bubbles is crucial for investors. By recognizing these biases and remaining grounded in fundamental analysis, investors can avoid getting swept away by the excitement and make informed decisions that prioritize long-term value over short-term gains.
NASDAQ:SMCIEducation
by Moshkelgosha
8
Super Micro Computer's AI Server AscendancyIn the bustling landscape of AI server providers, Super Micro Computer Inc. ( NASDAQ:SMCI ) emerges as a beacon of innovation and efficiency, securing its spot in the prestigious S&P 500 index. With close alliances with tech giants like Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Super Micro rides the crest of the AI server boom, revolutionizing the market with its agile product development and cutting-edge liquid cooling technology. Unveiling the Advantages: Unlike its competitors, Super Micro boasts unparalleled agility in product launch, courtesy of its strategic partnerships with Nvidia and AMD. This advantage propels Super Micro to the forefront of AI server supply, fueling a staggering 289% surge in its shares within a single year. Analysts laud the company's ability to swiftly manufacture, assemble, test, and ship server racks, often within mere weeks, positioning it as a key supplier in the realm of generative AI applications. Revenue Surge and Market Projections: Super Micro's meteoric rise isn't merely a fleeting trend; rather, it's a testament to its robust revenue growth, which more than doubled in the final quarter of 2023. Projections paint a rosy picture, with analysts foreseeing triple-digit percentage growth until at least the September quarter of 2024. Bank of America forecasts a substantial increase in Super Micro's share of the AI server market, projecting a rise to 17% by 2026. Valuation and Risk Factors: Despite its stellar performance, Super Micro ( NASDAQ:SMCI ) faces scrutiny over its lofty valuation, currently trading at 40 times expected earnings—a significant leap from its PE of 15 just months prior. This valuation hike heightens the risk of a potential selloff should the company falter in meeting future earnings expectations. However, with its proven track record and innovative edge, Super Micro remains poised to navigate these challenges adeptly. The Liquid Cooling Revolution: In tandem with the surge in AI server demand, Super Micro ( NASDAQ:SMCI ) spearheads the adoption of liquid cooling technology—an indispensable solution for data center operators grappling with the escalating heat generated by AI chips. Super Micro's proprietary liquid cooling tech, boasting a 40% reduction in power consumption compared to traditional air cooling methods, positions it as a frontrunner in the race towards enhanced efficiency and sustainability in data center operations. Challenges on the Horizon: While Super Micro basks in its current success, analysts caution against complacency, highlighting the looming threat of intensified competition from industry heavyweights. Moreover, the company's strategy of offering products at lower rates to gain market share could potentially undermine its profitability in the long run. Nonetheless, with its penchant for innovation and adaptability, Super Micro remains well-equipped to navigate the evolving landscape of AI server provision. Technical Outlook NASDAQ:SMCI shares after starting off the day well ended up plummeting by 6.96% despite its inclusion in the S&P 500. Trading with a moderate Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 53 indicating there isn't much overbought lately.
NASDAQ:SMCI
by DEXWireNews