SMCI: A Sleeping Monster Ready to AwakenSuper Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) has recently shown a notable pullback, presenting what I believe to be a massive opportunity. Despite the stock’s short-term volatility, SMCI remains a sleeping monster with huge upside potential in my view.
The recent decline toward the $35 mark (down from $50 earlier this week) can be largely attributed to two factors:
Delisting from the NASDAQ100: This fueled a wave of shorting, as traders capitalized on the news—something we’ve seen happen with this stock in the past.
Profit-Taking: Let’s not forget SMCI delivered a 180% revenue increase in just 24 days. A retracement following such explosive moves is not only expected but healthy for future growth.
Please also keep in mind that the weight of SMCI on the NASDAQ100 was only 0.13% of the entire index. This means that by buying one contract of NASDAQ100, only 0.13% of your capital was allocated to SMCI. In simple terms, the delisting is practically irrelevant, as its small weight doesn’t have a significant impact on the stock’s true value or long-term potential.
While many are cautious, I remain extremely bullish on SMCI’s long-term prospects. In the short term, I will take a conservative approach, expecting the stock to reach $54, which represents an impressive 54% increase from the current price.
Looking further ahead, my longer-term target is $75, as I believe this undervalued stock still has plenty of room to run.
If history has taught us anything, it’s that SMCI has a habit of bouncing back stronger after periods of uncertainty—and this recent dip is no different. The upside potential is massive.
Let the traders short, let the market shake weak hands—opportunity is knocking for those with patience and vision!!
This is not financial advice, just my personal view!!
SMCI trade ideas
$SMCI slippy downside; $29 targetWith the rebalancing of NASDAQ, removal of NASDAQ:SMCI after it got a pump from it submitting financial reports to keep it from being delisted the big dogs realize this fraudulent company isn’t worth the risk, investment and headache. I expect below $30. Easily can be down 5% this week and that’s modest. Official date is December 23rd. I will be entering $30p for a swing. There was tons of buying at sub $20’s. There will be tons of selling here. How do people invest in a company who can’t report on time, falsify numbers, auditing team quits on them? Sometimes you don’t play the charts, you play the god damn news. Look at NYSE:UNH , look at my past post & chart. That thing got smoked. NASDAQ:MRNA is next.
WALLSTREETLOSER
SUPERMICRO COMPUTERS $SMCI |SUPERMICRO TO SUPER BEARISH Dec13'24SUPERMICRO COMPUTERS NASDAQ:SMCI | SUPERMICRO TO SUPER BEARISH Dec13'24
When to enter NASDAQ:SMCI :
NASDAQ:SMCI BUY/LONG ZONE (GREEN): $39.00 - $48.00
NASDAQ:SMCI DO NOT TRADE/DNT ZONE (WHITE): $34.85 - $39.00
NASDAQ:SMCI SELL/SHORT ZONE (RED): $18.50 - $34.85
NASDAQ:SMCI Trends:
NASDAQ:SMCI Weekly Trend: Bearish
NASDAQ:SMCI Daily Trend: Bearish
NASDAQ:SMCI 4H Trend: Bearish
NASDAQ:SMCI 1H Trend: Bearish
NASDAQ:SMCI has been spiraling downwards for weeks. We finally saw price come to life just this past month, but the bearish trend has continued. The break below 40.00 confirmed the bearish trend for me, and I will look to see price either continue below 34.85 or try to create some type of support here. Bulls should be eyeing a break above the 39 - 40 level to try to gain some momentum. My trend indicators are also all pointing to the downside.
This is what I would personally look at before entering trades, everything is subject to change on a daily basis and as I analyze different timeframes and ideas.
ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY, NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE!
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@SMCI is 17.86 our next TargetSuper micro is a great stock ,i believe in the long run we will see a strong bullish momentum but it seems that time is not now, currently i believe bears are gaining strong momentum and our bearish channel structure also confirm we are heading towards 17.86 which serve as a previous support and also, on our 4hr chart we are trading below 20 day SMA which also confirm a bearish trend continuation :)
Super Micro Computer (SMCI): Is This the Greatest Comeback?Could this truly be the greatest comeback of 2024 & 2025? The decision for NASDAQ:SMCI is imminent, and it’s crucial to remain open to all potential scenarios.
Over the past month, NASDAQ:SMCI has risen by an impressive 83% and is now trading just below a significant resistance level. Flipping this resistance would mark the first shift from a bearish to a bullish structure since the beginning of the decline. Such a reclaim would also indicate a remarkable V-shaped correction, which holds substantial significance on the weekly chart.
It’s likely that NASDAQ:SMCI may experience a slight pullback this week to accumulate more buying momentum before pushing above the $50 mark. However, the stock must not fall below $25, as this remains the Point of Control (POC) since 2022—a critical level that must be respected to maintain the bullish potential.
SMCI at a Pivotal spot in trend - Need $40 to confirm uptrendLooking at the 30m timeframe, SMCI appears to be at the base of a trend channel. Holding at $38 currently, looking for a retrace to $40 by EOB Friday 12/13 to confirm. Could see mid-high $40's by next week if so, but if not could easily tank. Good luck, and let me know where you think it's headed.
Price target is $50The reason I have a $50 price target, this is the psychological level that makes SMCI a price it must break in order for us to even go higher. Its is as simple as that. From here at the current levels we are at, does not bring any certainty that we will move any higher than what I have predicted unless we see some movement on the upside.
SMCI free trade 3Why everything starts looking too much like things are good...and you feel like you may be using emotion versus your logical mind....just before you make a big swing trade...walk outside your apartment and close the door without your keys. You'll learn how quick that trade is emotional- then you'll learn how many friends you got too.
Progression for SMCI $58 next Minimum The price progression for SMCI should move up exceeding168.66. This is based on the new profit margin of 13.7%. As you all know SMCI was the victim of a short raid by the Hindenburg report, and associates, and some are including Ernst and Young in the conspiracy, based on the Chairman Janet strong affinity with the Obamas and the incidental information that these two actors also were behing the Adani Group also a victim.
However, at the moment SMCI has been completely cleared of fraud has a new accountant.
Significant investments in AI infrastructure are currently underway in Europe, while the United States continues to enhance its capabilities. A notable trend is the emergence of sovereign AI, where nations seek to develop independent AI systems for automation and management. SMCI's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio stands at 21, significantly lower than the segment's average of 57, suggesting substantial growth potential. With over 21% of shares shorted, upward momentum is expected to persist as market dynamics shift favorably.
As of December 5, 2024, Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) has a trailing P/E ratio of 21.43 and a forward P/E ratio of 15.56. The current earnings per share (EPS) stands at $1.92 based on a stock price of $41.14. This valuation indicates that SMCI is trading at a relatively lower multiple compared to its sector, suggesting potential for future growth as market conditions evolve
Maximize Your Profit Potential: SMCI Trading Strategy for Next WRecent Performance: SMCI has shown impressive recovery patterns since early
November, indicating an upward momentum that signals renewed investor
interest. The stock trades at a current price of 43.93, reflecting a
constructive market environment and potential for continued growth.
- Key Insights: Investors should focus on identified liquidity zones between $23
and $33, which are crucial for buying and selling decisions. The
establishment of support levels offers safe entry points, while resistance
levels provide profit-taking opportunities.
- Expert Analysis: Analyst opinions are overwhelmingly bullish on SMCI, with
many suggesting that the stock has potential for upward movement based on
technical indicators and prevailing market conditions. However, it is
advisable for investors to remain vigilant in tracking price fluctuations
that may impact their positions.
- Price Targets: Based on current analysis, the proposed targets are:
- Next week targets: T1 = 47.5, T2 = 50.0
- Stop levels: S1 = 41.8, S2 = 39.78
- News Impact: While no significant corporate news or announcements have emerged
to directly impact SMCI, the overall market sentiment remains positive. This
indicates that current price trends may continue, bolstered by investor
confidence in the stock's performance.
In conclusion, SMCI's favorable market activity paired with robust analyst
sentiment creates a positive outlook for the upcoming week. Investors are
encouraged to watch price dynamics closely and adapt their strategies as
necessary amidst this encouraging landscape.
SMCI UpdateSMCI: Long Setup Analysis (4H Timeframe Update)
Previous Idea Recap:
The prior long setup on SMCI performed excellently, with the stock rebounding sharply from a prolonged downtrend caused by adverse news. The price is now in a strong recovery phase, breaking key resistance levels and surging higher.
Supply and Demand Zones (Updated):
- Supply Zones (Resistance):
- $48.40–$50.35: The current price is testing this zone, which aligns with the 0.618–0.786 Fibonacci retracement levels. Expect possible resistance or consolidation here.
- $55.24–$59.68: The next major supply zone, aligning with the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level and the likely completion of Wave 5.
- $68.90–$72.50: Higher timeframe resistance zone. If the bullish breakout sustains, this is the long-term target zone.
- $88.40–$96.35: is the ultimate highest SZ up with a potential RRR of 10:1
Plan of Action:
- If Holding Positions: Trail your stop below recent swing lows to secure profits while allowing the trade to run.
- For New Positions: Wait for either a confirmed breakout above $50.35 or a retracement into the $38.90–$41.00 demand zone for the best entry.
"Trade what you see, not what you hope."
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should only trade with capital you can afford to lose. Always perform your own analysis and risk management.
Possible Butterfly Bull Trap in SMCI The classic bull trap pattern comes when we have an initial sell off. Some sort of retracement of that and then a failure to make a new high forming a capitulation pattern.
Everyone knows this pattern, it's the classic "Return to Normal" in the bubble template.
However, we also have modified versions of bull traps that make new highs. While this seems paradoxical, what better place is there to trap bulls than ATH?
When this patterns forms it's most often expressed as a butterfly top. There's the initial drop. A false continuation of the classic bull trap and then a spike high.
This forms a "W" pattern with the spike high usually ending in the 1.61 - 2.20 zone.
This is something we commonly find at the end of big uptrends.
Read more about uptrend and reversal formation here:
SMCI completes all stages of Minsky model. What's next for AI?Over the last couple years SMCI has done a speed run through all the phases of the Minsky model. Ending with a near perfect expression of all stage.
Let's go through the steps one by one;
First - the macro trend was starting to run out of steam when we tagged the 4.23 (As so often happens).
Next we had the classic fake crash and then final spike out, characteristic of bubbles.
Then we had the tell tale W butterfly top.
And then it was just a matter of time.
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Classic. By the boom stuff.
So, where does that leave us now? As someone who likes trading reversals best, this gives me one main thought. One of three things should be true. SMCI is a long. NVDA is a short. SCMI and NVDA due to fundamentals will diverge massively from each other.
I'm a TA trader, so I just discount the third option as an occupational hazard. I do not know nor care enough about the fundies of either of these. If the fundies overrule my TA thesis, I'll just hit a stop. Wait a while. Then make a new decision.
My goal in trading isn't to always be right or make my money off one wonder trade. The whole goal for me is over my trading lifetime to lose about 50% of my trades. Win about 50% of them. Average about $3 per $1 lost. I pre-accepted a long time ago I'd lose half my trades, what order they come in or why does not matter. They're all part of the plan.
So ... that brings us down to the decision, is it fade the NVDA bull or buy the SMCI knife?
There's some nuances to this. For one, SMCI has complete the low hanging fruit rally. We have a quite simple method for this. If and when the low of the parabolic phase is spiked out, this is when we usually see reversion to the trendline. Here's the setup in CVNA.
Using the same rational as used for the CVNA low call, it was easy enough to see the potential for a low being made in SMCI. Here's a real time mention of the SMCI knife catch at the low.
The dilemma here is this is the easy target for the long. Can run more, 100% bounce to the trendline was the low hanging fruit. But CVNA is now over 100% higher than the same level.
SMCI could have a lot more to run in theory but I find it hard to be bullish here because we're, literally, at my bull target level. I did the SMCI knife catch thing. It went well. Now we're at resistance. It might run more, but it feels more like chasing to me.
So to the next question. Does NVDA happen to look anything like SMCI did at the high?
Yup ...
If the Minsky model is again in play here, we're be somewhere close to the optimal shorting levels.
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Did SMCI lead NVDA? One would think at this point we can't be more than 18 months away from knowing. If the AI bubble is going to fully pop, it'd seem it has to be at or close to full maturity now.