Semiconductors ready for the next leg up - Zoom out !!!#FACTS
-Breakout in SMH was 11 years back around 2014 and uptrend started
-Last 10 years SMH just cannot be under the 200WSMA for long time
-Since 2015 the bottom is at 0.5 fib retrace & takes 9 months + atleast 25% Pullback
What are other confirming signals
-SOXL 3x leveraged etf just had 2 days o
Key stats
About VanEck Semiconductor ETF
Home page
Inception date
May 5, 2000
Structure
Open-Ended Fund
Dividend treatment
Distributes
Distribution tax treatment
Qualified dividends
Income tax type
Capital Gains
Max ST capital gains rate
39.60%
Max LT capital gains rate
20.00%
Primary advisor
Van Eck Associates Corp.
Distributor
Van Eck Securities Corp.
SMH is a highly concentrated fund that invests in common stocks and depositary receipts of US-listed semiconductor companies, similar to our benchmark. Midcap companies and foreign companies listed in the US can also be included. To be initially eligible, 50% of company revenues must be primarily in the production of semiconductors and semiconductor equipment. The top 50 eligible companies by market cap are then given two separate ranks based on free-float market capitalization in descending order and three-month average-daily-trading volume in descending order. Those two ranks are summed and the highest ranked 25 companies are selected. A capping scheme is applied to ensure diversification and more weight is given to the larger companies.
Classification
What's in the fund
Exposure type
Electronic Technology
Stock breakdown by region
$SMH: First the generals then the index NASDAQ:SMH with closing @ 180 $ on 04 April 2025 is equivalent to drawdown we saw during COVID crash. During the covid crash the semiconductor ETF lost 37% and this tariff crash we also saw 36% drawdown. If this tariff war on goes then we might see some more weakness. With this drawdown the NASDAQ
$SMH vs $HACK Ratio Chart: Intra Tech sector rotation NASDAQ:SMH with closing @ 180 $ on 04 April 2025 is equivalent to drawdown we saw during COVID crash. During the covid crash the semiconductor ETF lost 37% and this tariff crash we also saw 36% drawdown. But in contrast to that the current tariff environment has only a peak drawdown of 25% in $HACK
$SMH/$NAS100 is clearly in a bearish patternThe semiconductor sector was the poster child of the 2023 & 2024 bull market. The cap weighted index is a momentum play with heavy weights like NASDAQ:NVDA and NASDAQ:AVGO outperforming and hence the ETF gives more than 100% return in 2 years.
NASDAQ100 index is also cap weighted and momentum
SMH make me Shake My Head...SMH (VanEck Semiconductor ETF) Analysis & Prediction (March 14, 2025)
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1. Key Observations from the Chart
✅ Major Trendline Break
• SMH has broken below its long-term rising trendline (yellow), indicating a shift from a bullish trend to a corrective phase.
• The last time a similar break happ
See all ideas
Summarizing what the indicators are suggesting.
Oscillators
Neutral
SellBuy
Strong sellStrong buy
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Oscillators
Neutral
SellBuy
Strong sellStrong buy
Strong sellSellNeutralBuyStrong buy
Summary
Neutral
SellBuy
Strong sellStrong buy
Strong sellSellNeutralBuyStrong buy
Summary
Neutral
SellBuy
Strong sellStrong buy
Strong sellSellNeutralBuyStrong buy
Summary
Neutral
SellBuy
Strong sellStrong buy
Strong sellSellNeutralBuyStrong buy
Moving Averages
Neutral
SellBuy
Strong sellStrong buy
Strong sellSellNeutralBuyStrong buy
Moving Averages
Neutral
SellBuy
Strong sellStrong buy
Strong sellSellNeutralBuyStrong buy
Displays a symbol's price movements over previous years to identify recurring trends.