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SMH trade ideas

Shaking my head...Hey all, I've been calling for a rally these last few weeks, and the rally has occurred; I am now looking to enter short with heavy size tomorrow, 7/29. SMH is my favorite ETF in terms of shorting opportunity- it has made a very clean Wyckoff distribution at the top, and has very little support on the way down. I am incredibly bearish on semiconductors here-I think virtually all semiconductors present solid short opportunities here. I think it likely goes much lower than my price target with time, but I'll reassess when it is lower.
NASDAQ:SMHShort
by MichaelEugen1
1
SMH - TECH Welfare @ $282 Billion / $25B Tax Credit PerNancy and the Gang anxiously await the Senates Taxpayer handout to the Industry. Po Nancy, $107 Million simply is not enough for her and Pablo the Shark Tank Drunk. Nancy had to gobble $341K in losses on NVDA after exiting her 25K Shares in a loss due to slime lights a shinning. Bravo, add 3 zeros and it's all good. Everyone should lose a hand. Preferably, a head. __________________________________________________________________________ They'll need to expedite this Grift Gift as China's warned off the Carrier Group as well as Fancy - show up and it's going to be "A Dangerous Moment"... Nancy risks our young men and women in the Navy with harm's way... Don't give it a second thought. Saddle up and please take the rest of the House and Senate with you. Create a Threat to National Security... Risk Lives, Profit from it as a matter of course. Shut up Hoi Polloi, we didn't ask you, we decide - you obey. ___________________________________________________________________________ The insiders in and outside the Beltway can't wait to get this Theft to the House and wrap it up for August recess. Qui Bono, you ask? Intel, TSMC, and Texas Instruments - direct Jing. Fabless chipmakers like Nvidia and AMD will not be left out in the cold. They will receive "Scientific Grants out of the $230 Billion in free money for "Innovation." It is quite likely the following Companies will join the Grift eventually: Micron Technology Inc. (MU) Amkor Technology Inc. (AMKR) Camtek Ltd. (CAMT) Analog Devices Inc. (ADI) Although these ladies doth protest too much, it's an irresistible deal... free money. We'll see $175B in Tax Credits gifted when everyone joins the Semi-Orgy. You and me - we get the Bill @ $457 Billion. Enjoy or do something. ps. - IMF: Russian economy doing better than expected
NASDAQ:SMH
by HK_L61
8
The end is not here, but it’s closerHello friends. Semiconductors are the new oil, but that's not a good thing. Semiconductors (and subsequently their stocks) have been rapidly rising due to massive global shortages. Like with every trend ever, emotional retail traders tend to assume that it will last for eternity, and rational observers of the market who have been here long enough know that it will in fact not last forever. "Nothing gold can stay." Shortages are an issue that markets have the function to resolve, both by crushing demand (Fed is doing this + high prices are also doing the same), and creating new supply faster (semi producers are doing this). Shortages are not usually a persistent problem, they are a temorary hiccup not unlike the 2020 Covid crash was. Brandon Kulik: To me, if I was writing a headline, I’d say something like, “The end is not here, but it’s closer.” That’s how I’d represent it. This dude has *decades* of experience in the semi industry. We listen when he talks. We take notes. The interesting thing about how Kulik worded this, is that the EWT count of the chart tells the EXACT same story. The party isn't quite over yet. But it will be, soon. We are expecting to see a pullback in semis along with the broader market, which will flush out the glut of retail puts and allow for larger players to position themselves for the coming decline. Another thing to keep an eye on is the average P/E ratio of this sector. Due to the bubble, it has risen to an eye-popping 32.94, which is probably a lot higher than it should be. Assuming we have a recession (81% chance this will happen in Q2 2022), this P/E ratio should compress to more like the 15 to 20X P/E range, which represents substantial downisde in price, not to mention downside in earnings.
NASDAQ:SMHShort
by bowtrix
$SMH Short Idea Semiconductors have been showing relative weakness as the Federal Reserve continues to execute QT. Higher interest rates have contracted stock prices and will most likely contract earnings within the next two quarters. The semiconductor sector is one that traded to what we can consider a bubble during the last two years; the market is no longer "risk on" as we can see by the damage that has been done to the bond market. Technicals on $SMH provide a Head & Shoulder pattern on the weekly timeframe; the stock has already broken down from the neckline and has retested its respected weekly EMAs. Bearish traders can short this via leap put options or by selling short shares of $SMH or its holdings. Puts with strikes of 130 and 125 look attractive for October. OptionsSwing Analyst Daniel Betancourt
NASDAQ:SMHShort
by optionsswing
$SMH - Head and shoulder break down$SMH has been in down trend from head & shoulder breakdown. The next support point would be around $177 which is 1.618 fib extension area as well as head and shoulder measured move projection. If $177 area doesn't hold we could see $151 area which is the pre-pandemic high area. The worst case is $108 which should be absolute bottom if we reach there. Target 1 - $177 Target 2 - $151 Target 3 - $108 (absolute worst case like China invades Taiwan kind of situation) Disclaimer - Not an investment advice.
NASDAQ:SMHShort
by PaperBozz
MACRO bearish thesis semiconductorsHey all, I wanted to share my thoughts with you guys regarding semiconductors as that was one of the sectors people were most bullish on back when the market seemingly could only go up. That is no longer the case. If you look at names like AMAT and TSM, the distribution on semiconductors is in the past, and now we are in the markdown phase(A lot of false breakouts and Wyckoff distribution looks across the board). Semiconductors are very cyclical stocks and are still relatively overvalued compared to the rest of the market. I am actually quite bullish on semiconductors over the short term and fundamentally, but I do anticipate names in the industry to resolve lower and rallies to be faded. As a bear, I would wait to short significant rallies- watch the next few weeks as I think semis are going to rally in July.
NASDAQ:SMH
by MichaelEugen1
1
Opening (IRA): SMH August 19th 175 Short Put... for a 1.76 credit. Comments: Targeting the <16 delta strike in the August monthly (53 DTE) paying around 1% of the strike price in credit. Adding a smidge of long delta back into my portfolio to keep my net delta happy using an ETF that is closely correlated with the broad market (SPY 3-month correlation of .92) instead of cluttering up my IWM, QQQ, and SPY short put ladders further. Other ETF's to do this with: XLK (.97 3-month correlation), EFA (.90).
NASDAQ:SMHLong
by NaughtyPines
1
Semiconductor ETF buySMH Semiconductor ETF is at a major support trendline (white dash) and EMA377 (blue line). SMH is a screaming buy now. Technically speaking, there is essentially no downside risk and plenty of upside reward at this entry point. Computer chips, also known as semiconductors, are the brains of products like smartphones, computers, cars, medical devices, digital cameras, TVs, washing machines, refrigerators, every appliance, LED bulbs, ATMs, trains, planes, the internet, communications, pretty much everything.. WASHINGTON, April 6 (Reuters) - The White House held a classified briefing on Wednesday with some U.S. lawmakers on the dire risks to the American economy from semiconductor supply chain issues as it pushes Congress for $52 billion in funding to subsidize production. Do your own due diligence, your risk is 100% your responsibility. This is for educational and entertainment purposes only. You win some or you learn some. Consider being charitable with some of your profit to help humankind. Good luck and happy trading friends... *3x lucky 7s of trading* 7pt Trading compass: Price action, entry/exit Volume average/direction Trend, patterns, momentum Newsworthy current events Revenue Earnings Balance sheet 7 Common mistakes: +5% portfolio trades, capital risk management Beware of analyst's motives Emotions & Opinions FOMO : bad timing, the market is ruthless, be shrewd Lack of planning & discipline Forgetting restraint Obdurate repetitive errors, no adaptation 7 Important tools: Trading View app!, Brokerage UI Accurate indicators & settings Wide screen monitor/s Trading log (pencil & graph paper) Big, organized desk Reading books, playing chess Sorted watch-list Checkout my indicators: Fibonacci VIP - volume Fibonacci MA7 - price pi RSI - trend momentum TTC - trend channel AlertiT - notification tickerTracker - MFI Oscillator www.tradingview.com
NASDAQ:SMHLong
by Options360