SMH trade ideas
SMH ETF - Quick TradeThe Elliott counts would suggest that there is an opportunity to go long at market and at 224. The correction will follow to take prices higher to 252.
4/24/22 SMHVanEck Semiconductor ETF ( NASDAQ:SMH )
Sector: Miscellaneous (Investment Trusts/Mutual Funds)
Market Capitalization: $ --
Current Price: $234.73
Breakdown price (hold below): $237.35
Sell Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $241.85-$261.90
Price Target: $206.40-$204.00
Estimated Duration to Target: 67-72d
Contract of Interest: $SMH 6/17/22 200p
Trade price as of publish date: $4.35/contract
$SMH 30m$SMH right under zone of resistance. Tomorrow either breakout or rejects. Can play the underlyings instead as well.
SMH is in play this week with TSM reporting earningsSo, we have not seen the confirmation yet that the economy is slowing down. Semi is getting crushed because China is in lock down. These are very high valuation with a likely change to more defensive spending budgets this quarter.
Opening: SMH May 20th 215/280 Short Strangle... for a 5.30 credit.
Comments: Selling some nondirectional premium in semiconductors (implied volatility rank 60/30-day 41.2%) in the May monthly (42 days 'til expiry). 5.30 on buying power effect of 24.94 (on margin); 21.3% ROC at max as a function of buying power effect; 10.6% at 50% max.
$SMH 15mSMH, semis etf still holding this breakout area. If we fail to hold then fall back in the triangle otherwise this is a break retest bounce type of scenario. In market analysis semis didn't do so well today compared to the rest of the market
Semi's attempting to break through resistance,what does it mean?The Semiconductor ETF SMH is meeting resistance here @ 260. The last several times the SMH index ETF met this trend resistance has resulted in a push to lower lows. Could this time be different? The MFI (Money Flow Index) seems to be suggesting it is a possibility. Although SMH is riding a downtrend, SMH price volume momentum is in overbought territory. A SMH break and close above 260 on a daily basis would end the SMH down turn. The next important area to watch would be 266. 266 is where major resistance resides. This is evidenced by the significant battle between bulls and bears previously waged there noted in Volume @ Price. The last time @ 266, the bears got the better of the SMH bulls. However, this SMH MFI is trending higher as opposed to lower. This is a canary in the coal mine to watch as this battle could have repercussions as to the future direction of the broad market trend and ensuing market leadership.
A little more pain ahead for SemisLooking for a fill of the gap at 232 which coincides with the 2.0 extension of this 5-wave move down. Head & Shoulders pattern with negative MACD divergence.
Closed: SMH April 14th 20/290 Short Strangle... for a 4.29 credit.
Comments: Received a 5.90 credit for putting this on 6 days ago. (See Post Below). Taking 1.61 ($161) of profit here -- 27% of max with 35 days to go.
Opening: SMH April 14th 210/290 Short Strangle... for a 5.90 credit.
Comments: High IVR/high IV (96/48.5). Selling the 15 delta-ish strikes on both sides; 5.90 credit on buying power effect of 25.37 (on margin); 23.3% ROC at max; 11.6% at 50% max.
$SMH: Run 'Em AgainSemiconductors potentially looking at another leg higher likely to benefit in different types of markets. Names like ACLS, MXL, MRVL and others pushing to new highs
The sparrow may be small but its vital organs are thereRead news here , about this ETF here and here
This is a Chinese idioms -
má què suī xiǎo , wǔ zàng jù quán
Many finished goods like mobile phones to automobiles looks sleek,elegant and nice from the outside. But like the sparrow, the chips though small contain all the vital organs that drives the function of the mobile phones and the cars. Without it , it is useless. And the article above clearly shows us the global demand for it will only INCREASE over time.
For more than a decade since year 2001, this ETF was hoovering under sub 50 dollars price level. It was only in Jan 2015 that it finally breaks out of 50 dollars and the last 6 years has been nothing but spectacular performance. If you had bought it at 50 dollars and hold this ETF till now, you would have made nearly 5x the returns.
But had you not, fret not, here is another buying opportunity for you. A bullish engulfing candle and a breakout of the resistance at 243 price level would be a good entry point.
$qqq and $smh Pretty much the same chart What is the outcome?Will it be options A - Head & Shoulder Top, Option B - Bear flag or Option C - Non of the above
#SMH and all semi plays#SMH is seeing increased bullish volume ( blueish nodes ) compared to bearish volume ( orange nodes ) on the volume profile sitting on a great spot ontop of a volume shelf with plenty of room to push to the top side if we can keep this trend so far don't dive into plays in current market ease into them to manage your risk as best as possible
$SMH Bear Flag, Dip & RipSMH has sold off through the median of the pitchfork with more volume than the uptrend (Oct 21 to Nov 21). There is a likelyhood that we are doing "as above, so below" pattern where the price rejects the upper channel, supply exhausts, then comes back down to mirror down below to look for demand.
As of now SMH is hammering near the outer channel. I'll be looking for a low volume bear flag where bulls try to drive the price up just beyond the gap fill. Shortly after it'll be key to watch the bears step in and drive price down to 252.
After a bit of accumulation, should we continue to stay in this trend (since COVID) I can see the price quickly moving back to the median shortly after options expiration in Feb.
$SMH demand zoneIn a demand zone, near the 200d ma at 270. Looking for a bounce around there. Calls above 282 for confirmation of a shift in trend. With $TSM ER beat 2 weeks ago and $INTC/$TXN/$LRCX/$XLNX ER runup this week, could be a catalyst for a bounce at these levels. Inverted hammer not looking so pretty though.
SMH - Hard Short(Opinion Only)
Could be direct move or take a few days, not advice. Just my interpretation of the chart.
SMH/SPYSMH has handedly outperformed the SPY since 2018 but has stalled recently
If SMH cannot continue to outperform SPY in 2022 it will be ugly for tech/growth
SMH/SPYSemiconductors have significantly outperformed the S&P 500 since 2015
Semiconductors are today's transports
$SMH Semis Breakout RetestSMH Breakout Retest of 313, needs confirmation . Failure expect a move back in the box to the 300 zone.
Given the bullish seasonality and technical confluence (MACD cross and RSI uptick), bias is to the upside with $325 and $332 price targets.
I'm long JAN $315 Calls, 30% stop.
Semicondoctuctors are the "Transports of the 21st century"Bespoke Research firm says "Prior to the digital revolution that began in the 1990s, the Dow Transports were viewed as a “leading” indicator for the broader stock market. In the digital age, there’s hardly an industry group that doesn’t rely on semiconductors in one way or another. A modern car can easily have more than 3,000 chips. We view the semiconductor group as the “Transports of the 21st century,” making the price action for semis important to monitor."
I agree and will be monitoring the SMH/SPY
