Breakdown of Semiconductors Simple view of this critical sector breaking through key technical trendlines.
Our first bearish sign was the break earlier in August, which held, and rallied back above the original broken trendline. That quickly stopped as momentum ran out, and it's now breaking through multiple trendlines with bulls at max long. This can potentially fall significantly given the overweight bullish positioning and the stretched overbought price.
SMH trade ideas
Semiconductor ETF Has Failed to Break OutOne of the biggest stories in the last month has been the breakout in the Nasdaq-100 . But the Market Vectors Semiconductor ETF has failed to join the breakout.
It’s not a surprise because chips are economically sensitive and struggle when manufacturing slows. That’s happened now.
SMH’s lack of breakout shows weak relative strength and fundamentals. That could give bears more of a reason to expect downside if selling spreads in the broader market.
It also creates a potential risk-management zone for traders taking bearish positions.
Finally, the relative weakness in chips focuses attention on Nasdaq stocks that have actually broken out – like software and e-commerce . Traders may want to expect more strength in those groups.
SMH might not be a short yet, and it might still break out if the S&P 500 holds 3,000. But if the opposite happens and volatility picks back up in July, this could be a corner of technology where the bears will be more active.
$SMH Semiconductors Etf Tired
The run in the SMH has been amazing from the March lows and is now back at the Feb highs,
Tuesday some heavyweights like NVDA AMD & MU started to show some signs that some consolidation is needed.
Momentum, Volume, ACD are beginning to head south.
It may be wise to take some profits in chip\semi stock until the breakout or retrace is complete.
Vaneck Head and Shoulders Pattern What I see...
+ Prices broke through the H&S neckline last weed but pulled back to 10ma forming a hammer bofore bouncing back to a blue bar today, on good vol., to confirm the reversal pattern
+ MACD is bullish
+ RSI is at 57.7
+ Bollinger is narrowing
- Upper shadows
- Closing price a bit far away from the 10ma
- First Resistance at $151
What I setup...
+ Long entry above today's high
- Stop at bottom of hammer
+ Target at late Feb. high
:: Duration - 3 to 8 sessions
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What I see...
+ Bullish Engulfing candle ended with price closed above 10MA
+ Support shown by 200 MA
+ High vol
+ MACD is in positive zone but flat
+ RSI at 54 and rising
+ Bollinger Band is narrowing but not tightly squeezed
- 50MA is still under 200MA
- Lower high from o-2d
- Resistance at $138 range
What I setup...
+ Long entry above today's high
- Stop at last week's low
+ Target 52w high
:: Duration 2 to 8 sessions