SMH trade ideas
SMH Death Cross
The drop today was inevitable as AMD & NVDA have rallied so hard and far of the lows.
Today brings the death crossing of the 200 and 50 day moving average, which only intensifies the selling.
$SMH Semiconductors taking a break
REjection off major moving averages very significant.
key support $123
if broken target as low as $115
$SMH Approaching Res... (BEARISH!)Team,
Be careful going long anything today. Everything seem to be approaching resistance. Keep an eye on this one and as always...
***Let's talk about it***
OPENING: SMH JUNE 19TH 129/170 SHORT STRANGLE... for a 3.66 credit.
Metrics:
Max Profit: $366
Max Loss: Undefined
Buying Power Effect: 14.95
Credit Received/BPE: 24.5%
Delta/Theta: .44/3.97
Notes: Going out to the first expiry in which the at-the-money short straddle is paying greater than 10% of the stock price. Doing the basic delta under hedge drill on this one: delta under hedging at intervals to maintain net delta < theta, if possible, allowing theta to work its magic.
SMH Bearish Divergences $smh
Finally ran out of steam and looks like the surge from NVDA was the blow of top.
It will take a considerable reversal in market sentiment to turn this around.
RSI had been warnings us with bearish divergences.
MACD and Histogram also rolling over.
Price levels for reversal marked on chart if $145 fails to hols as support.
$SMH Fib Retracement - Below 155 Potential Target at 129 Assuming resistance line between recent 2 tops indicates 155 as potential up target then fading to Fibonacci retracement channel with following levels:
147 - 143 - 139 - 135 - 130 - 123 can be extended to 104 but its unlikely.... each level expected to have some support and/or bounce to other level.. If market correction occurred then will target 1.62% fibo to target gap filling near 129
SMH - Semi Conductors - bullishHere's a bullish count for Semi Conductors. I like this count because I'm struggling to see the downside. Of course, the market may shine light on my blindness but until then, I will stick with this bullish count.
SMH REBOUND - CORONAVIRUS CURE??A 35-year-old Seattle-area man identified as the nation's first person with coronavirus developed pneumonia while in the hospital but has improved after getting antiviral medication, according to a new study.
A report published Friday in the New England Journal of Medicine said the Snohomish County, Washington, man remained in the hospital as of Thursday and has no symptoms other than a cough that is improving.
The study, which describes the man's symptoms and treatment but does not identify him, provides the most detailed look among the six reported cases of coronavirus in the U.S. On Thursday, the CDC and Illinois state health officials reported the first U.S. case of person-to-person spread of the illness – the husband of a Chicago woman who developed symptoms after visiting China.
Public health officials warn that there are likely to be more U.S. cases, including the possibility of limited person-to-person spread of the respiratory virus, but they emphasized the risk to the public remains low. The outbreak has infected nearly 10,000 people, mostly in China, and killed more than 200 there.
More Virus Notes and Possible Cure Here:
Semis ready to go downReached the top channel, expecting the trend to break as early as next week followed by a big sell off. Looks to be following the fractal I identified back in July with some slight adjustments.
Topping pattern on SMH with MACD divergence downBeen away overseas for last month or so. back at my trading desk now. Topping pattern on SMH with MACD divergence down. Not huge clarity on double/triple top. grabbed Jan 24th expiration 137.5 and 140 puts at .35c and .56c
SMH Short Thesis The Next MonthI'm not currently short the semis but upon doing some research I found a nice setup thesis. Similar weekly candles. I see the previous time SMH found it's low about 15.7% down from that weekly candle close after 29 days. If you use the same 15% calculation after 28/29 days, it brings you to the 23% fibonacci level at $120.
This is only a theory at this point and I'll continue to do some digging on it. But it looks ripe for a give back leading up to earnings or after earnings. I'm going to look for a put spread entry on Monday.
Good luck - and as always, don't trade based on my opinions or hypotheses.
SMH
SMH - Short-term BearishTRADING ACTIVE
Chart Details
SMH had sell signal on Daily yesterday.
I entered trade but did not post. Waited for trend dots to confirm.
Trend dots confirmed bearish trend very end of day.
Gaps to fill below down to $111.
Weekly RSI trend is about to breakdown.
Daily trend dots confirmed bearish trend.
I will post a Weekly view chart for SMH when trend confirms Bearish weekly view.
Entry Options
I am entered in the Jan 17. Expiry, 140/145 Call Credit Spread (Bearish bias). $2.48 Credit received. This trade assumes both 140 & 145 Calls will expire worthless with SMH below $140 by Jan 17. Total credit is kept as profit. Max gain and max loss both approximately $250. Average POP around 65%. Not the best.
About Me
Thank you for liking, commenting, throwing up a chart, following, or viewing.
I am not a financial advisor. My comments and reviews are based on what I do with my personal accounts.
I am transitioning to my new website www.moneypatterns.com. Same guy - new name. :)
Website will be ready for launch mid-January 2020. Thank you for your patience while I try to juggle everything and maintain the same standards.
Disclosure - I am long BTCUSD, GBTC.
Short term - GDX Bullish, SPXS Bullish, SMH Bearish
$SMH SHORT AT 142.5 TARGETING 135 AND 128 BEARISH Bearish candlesticks pattern with negative RSI and overbought MFI
