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SMH trade ideas

Closed (IRA): SMH July 19th 189/199/275/285 Iron Condor... for a 1.17 debit. Comments: Mixing and matching profitable put wing with profitable call wing from iron condors put on at different times (See Posts Below) to de-risk running into NVDA earnings on 5/22. (NVDA is around 21% of SMH holdings). The resulting setup is a July 19th 205/215/255/265 on which I've collected a net 3.23 in credits; delta/theta -.28/3.45. I'll look at doing a delta adjustment post-earnings if necessary.
NASDAQ:SMH
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): SMH July 19th 205/215/275/285 IC... for a 2.17 credit. Comments: An additive delta adjustment to the current SMH IC I have on. (See Post Below). With the original setup's short call aspect converging on -25 delta and the short put converging on +10, selling a skewed IC with the oppositionally delta'd short call/short put (i.e., at the +25 short put and the -10 delta short call) to bring back the position back to net delta flat with 63 days until expiry. 4.40 total credits collected with a current delta/theta of 1.02/5.81.
NASDAQ:SMH
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): SMH July 19th 189/199/255/265 Iron Condor... for a 2.23 credit. Comments: A small engagement trade in the semiconductor ETF (31.5% 30-Day IV). Going somewhat wide here with the deltas, with the short option legs camped out at 16 delta on both sides. I generally like to collect one-third the width of the wings in credit for these, but am going a little more long-dated than usual, so want to give it a smidge more room to be wrong. The assumption here is neutral, with the bet being that it slops around between my short option strikes. I'll generally look to take profit at 50% max and/or adjust sides on approaching worthless or on side test. Metrics: Buying Power Effect: 7.77 Max Profit: 2.23 ROC at Max: 28.70% ROC at 50% Max: 14.35% Delta/Theta: .37/3.01
NASDAQ:SMHLong
by NaughtyPines
SMH heads up at $209.43: Golden Genesis fib may Break-n-RetestSMH just hit a Golden Genesis fib at $209.43. That fib is reinforced by a Covid Stimulus fib. This is a major landmark in this ETF's history. $ 209.43 - 212.89 is the immediate resistance. $ 236.36 - 238.96 is the next major resistance. $ 191.21 - 191.90 below is the first good support. It is PROBABLE that we orbit this zone for a while. It is POSSIBLE that we break and retest for late buy. It is PLAUSIBLE that we get a pullback here and now. Here is a full view of the Genesis Sequence: ==========================================================================================
NASDAQ:SMH
by EuroMotif
SMH: Ain't over till its overThis is a follow-up on my Mar 9 post on NASDAQ:NVDA and I feel using the NASDAQ:SMH would explain overall market picture better. I struggled with how to frame this post as it is a combination of zooming into lower fractals and zooming out to higher fractals and hope this weekly chart helps. In the immediate short-term, markets are oversold and you can spot the ABCD down completions in the 30M fractal. This is likely to be a short-term bounce into week end, month end to test 30M overhead neckline resistance. In the weekly and daily chart, the overhead neckline resistance can be seen as the white dotted overhead resistance (representing extreme price volume action). Big picture wise, there are multiple ABCD completions for the SMH and its key component stocks which implies we should look at the Nov'21 to Oct'22 downturn guide the downside projection. This would imply a downside projection to c.$164 with the $224 level as an invalidation level.
NASDAQ:SMHShort
by WellTrainedMonkey
Opened (IRA): SMH May 17th 198 Monied Covered Call... for a 192.24 debit. Comments: Opened this in late Friday's session as it floated to the top of my IV screener with IVR/IV at 106/39. Sold the -75 delta call against 100 delta of long stock, with a resulting cost basis of 192.24/share. This is to emulate a 25 delta short put and to take advantage of call side IV skew while having "built-in" position defense via the short call. Will look to add at intervals, assuming IVR/IV remains high, generally taking profit at 50% max and defending via roll out of the short call. Metrics: BPE/Break Even/Cost Basis in Shares: 192.24 Max Profit: 5.76 ($576) ROC at Max: 3.00% ROC at 50% Max: 1.50% Variants: Short Put: May 19th 200 Short Put, 4.65 at the mid, 195.35 (cash secured), 25.70 (on margin). 2.38% ROC at max, 1.19% at 50% max for cash secured; 18.09% ROC at max, 9.05% at 50% max on margin (which is why you stick with the short put on margin; it's more BP efficient). Synthetic Short Put: May 19th 110/200 Short Put Vertical, 4.50 at the mid, 85.50 (cash secured), paying .15 to bring in BPE by more than half, 5.26 ROC at max, 2.63% at 50% max. This would only make sense in a cash secured environment from a BP efficiency standpoint; the naked short put remains more BP efficient on margin than either the covered call or the "synthetic naked short put" spread. Standard Short Put Vertical: May 19th 190/200 Short Put Vertical, 2.03 at the mid on BPE of 7.97 (both cash secured and on margin), 25.57% ROC at Max; 12.74% ROC at 50% max.
NASDAQ:SMHLong
by NaughtyPines
SMH breaks above its updward, reversal likelySMH has gone on a wonderful tear the last year and has recently showing signs that it is way overbought and due for a correction. From a 1W period we see that SMH has broken above year long upward trend. This is a first for SMH to do over the last year The ETF has gone through some notable contractions like from Aug - Oct of 2023. This occured without breaking above the trend. RSI 20 is now also for the first time showing that it has reached above 70 in over a year. We should expect a decent contraction or elongated pull back in time to correct fore this over purchasing it went through. Tighten your stop losses to protect against downside risk.
NASDAQ:SMHShort
by ratchet-mint
Opened: SMH March 15th 169/175/199/205 Iron Condor... for a 2.07 credit. Comments: 30-day IV at 27.8%. (Higher would be better, but you can't have everything). Collecting 1/3rd of the width of the wings in credit. 2.07 credit on BPE of 3.93; 52.7% ROC at max; 26.3% at 50% max. As usual, will generally look to take profit at 50% max; adjust sides on side test. This is probably my last trade in the March monthly, since 45 DTE is kind of the wheelhouse for this stuff, and the March monthly is at 43 DTE. I'll mostly hand sit from here until month end, with most of the trades being adjustments.
NASDAQ:SMH
by NaughtyPines
2
Opening (IRA): SMH March 15th 176 Monied Covered Call... for a 172.42 debit. Comments: While I'm waiting for a July contract to open up in broad market instruments (IWM, QQQ, SPY), shopping around the ETF space for premium. Relative to broad market, SMH IV isn't horrible (the 30-day is currently at 29.3%). Selling the -75 delta call against long stock, to emulate a 25 delta short put and to take advantage of call IV skew (32.9% on the call side; 27.2% on the put). 3.58 max on BPE of 172.42; 2.08% at max; 1.04% at 50% max. Will generally look to take profit at 50% max; roll out the short call to reduce cost basis further if it doesn't get there.
NASDAQ:SMHLong
by NaughtyPines
Parking some funds into this ETF - SMHIf we take a step back and plot the weekly chart of SMH, there lies a possibility that we may have a ABC pattern playing out in the weeks/months to come. We are not out of the descending channel yet (a bullish sign) and it could also notch another level down as well (can't rule this out though I think is quite remote), so those who have yet to go LONG can wait for the breakout, establish bullish signals on smaller time frame and decide if you should add this to your portfolio.
NASDAQ:SMHLong
by dchua1969
1