TESLA Dojo stole the show from NVDA!I published my analysis about AI bubble burst in August, now it looks like TSLA supercomputer Dojo has attracted market attention and drain liquidity out of NVDA and cryptocurrency market!
At the time of writing this article TSLA is +9.1% and NVDA -2.16%, and my quantitative model scored TSLA +10 (Max buy) and NVDA -10 (max sell).
Meanwhile, cryptocurrency market lost the 1 trillion market cap after 4 months.
Why I believe TSLA surge is at the expense of NVDA and CRYPTO?
If you are looking at the comments on this platform and other social media, you will see the population who trade or invest in TSLA, NVDA or crypto have pretty much same traits, culture, vocabulary, and patterns of behavior!
While in the first half of 2023, NVDA stole the momentum from TSLA, Dojo (TESLA supercomputer) brought back the momentum to TSLA!
What we know about Dojo?
Tesla Dojo is a supercomputer designed and built by Tesla for computer vision video processing and recognition. It will be used to train Tesla's machine learning models to improve its Full Self-Driving (FSD) advanced driver-assistance system. According to Tesla, it had begun to be used in production in August 2023.
Dojo is a custom-designed supercomputer that is optimized for processing video data. It is made up of a large number of custom chips called Dojo Pods, which are each capable of processing 1.8 teraflops of data per second. The Dojo Pods are interconnected by a high-speed network, allowing them to work together to process massive amounts of data.
Tesla Dojo is expected to be one of the most powerful supercomputers in the world. It is estimated to have a peak performance of 1.8 exaflops, which is more than 100 times the performance of the previous generation of Tesla supercomputers.
Dojo will be used to train Tesla's FSD models on a massive dataset of real-world driving data. This data is collected from Tesla's fleet of over 4 million vehicles, which are equipped with cameras, radar, and ultrasonic sensors. The FSD models will use this data to learn how to drive safely and autonomously in a variety of conditions.
Dojo is a key part of Tesla's plan to achieve full self-driving. Tesla CEO Elon Musk has said that Dojo will allow Tesla to train its FSD models in a matter of weeks, rather than the months or years that it currently takes. This will accelerate the development of Tesla's self-driving technology and help the company to achieve its goal of making its vehicles fully self-driving by 2024.
Tesla produces the Dojo chip. It is a custom-designed chip that is optimized for processing video data. The Dojo chip is manufactured by the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) using 7 nanometer (nm) semiconductor nodes, has 50 billion transistors and a large die size of 645 mm2 (1.0 square inch).
There is no NVDA chip in Dojo.
The Dojo supercomputer is powered by Tesla's own Dojo chip, which is a custom-designed chip that is optimized for processing video data. Tesla has not yet released any information about the specifications of the Dojo chip, but it is believed to be a very powerful chip.
In August 2023, Tesla announced that Dojo was now in production use, configured with 10,000 Nvidia chips. However, these chips are not used to power the Dojo supercomputer. Instead, they are used to accelerate the training of Tesla's FSD models.
Tesla has a long-standing partnership with Nvidia, and the two companies have worked together on a number of projects. However, Tesla is increasingly developing its own chips in-house. This is a trend that is being seen across the automotive industry, as automakers seek to gain more control over the technology that powers their vehicles.
It is possible that Tesla may use Nvidia chips in future versions of Dojo, but for now, the supercomputer is powered by Tesla's own chips.
Technical analysis:
Crossing below 143 will create higher low- lower Low in weekly chart,
The top 10 holdings of the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) are:
NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) - 21.64%
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) - 10.25%
Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) - 5.48%
Lam Research Corporation (LRCX) - 4.79%
Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT) - 4.57%
ASML Holding NV (ASML) - 4.56%
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) - 4.28%
Analog Devices, Inc. (ADI) - 3.95%
Intel Corporation (INTC) - 4.87%
Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) - 3.72%
SMH trade ideas
The place on a chart where the bulls come out to party - AND WHYThe SMH is the semi conductor exchange traded fund (EFT). This chart is a perfect example of the place where traders can generally count on a bull bear battle.
When price is falling, the human nature tendency is to think what's happening now will continue to happen in the near term.
All charts act and react the same way. In fact, Mrs. Market is simply running a test of an important area where it will be "show time" for a bull bear battle...
This example is a "breakup candle low" which is an important spot on all charts, all time frames where a test is normal as is a bounce, at least for a trade, or more...
This and many other concepts are discussed InsideTheNumbers LIVE and our nightly common sense market analysis videos on YouTube
SMH Daily UpdateBig gap drops SMH to a key Gann area (upper red dashed line) for a 50% retrace on the ABCD. Could bounce here, at the APEX of the volume profile (not shown) although RSI (9) looks very bearish with downtrend below 50.
SMH being held up by a few big names, I am looking for a retrace closer to the bottom dashed line, or somewhere around the 61.8 % ABCD retrace.
Opening (IRA): SMH November 17th 122.5 Short Put... for a 1.34 credit.
Comments: Adding a rung out in the November monthly so that my October rung doesn't look so lonely ... . It's actually because SMH 30-day IV is still fairly decent at 31.6%; the only options liquid ETF's with better IV are GDXJ (35.2%) and FXI (32.0%).
Targeting the <16 delta strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit to emulate dollar cost averaging into the semiconductor exchange-traded fund.
Opening (IRA): SMH October 20th 130 Short Put... for a 1.60 credit.
Comments: Just adding a little sump thin' sump thin' in high IV exchange-traded fund land, selling premium that targets the <16 delta strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit to emulate dollar cost averaging into the semicon sector.
Here, 30-day IV is at 33.4% and at the top of my liquid exchange-traded fund board when sorted by 30-day. Currently, only GDXJ is higher, coming in at 33.4%.
Yostudy(title="FibFib", shorttitle="AutoFib", overlay=true)
fiblength=input(265)
maxr = highest(close, fiblength)
minr = lowest(close, fiblength)
ranr = maxr - minr
ON=plot( maxr , color=black, title="1")
SS=plot( maxr - 0.236 * ranr, title="0.764", color=#3399FF )
SO=plot( maxr - 0.382 * ranr, title="0.618", color=blue )
FI=plot( maxr - 0.50 * ranr, title="0.5", color=lime )
TE=plot( minr + 0.382 * ranr, title="0.382", color=green )
TT=plot( minr + 0.236 * ranr, title="0.236", color=red )
ZZ=plot( minr , title="0", color=black )
fill(ON,SS, color=red)
fill(SS,SO, color=#3399FF)
fill(SO,FI, color=lime)
fill(FI,TE, color=lime)
fill(TE,TT, color=#3399FF)
fill(TT,ZZ, color=red)
SMH Daily a Break of 143.50 is "Katy Bar the Door"Tomorrow, 8/18, is a critical day for Semis. Should the selling continue, to the tune of -1.38% off today's close, and we could see a break of a key Gann Confluence support at 143.50 (middle circle), which is a prior pivot (left circle).
Below that area is free-fall (yellow highlighted), low volume, and little support. The 136 area I had pegged a while back on another chart.
IF selloff continues tomorrow, we could have an interesting setup for Monday.
SMH Semiconductors WeeklyI missed a call for a pullback on June 6, so Semis have held up pretty well since. We have a cup & handle on the weekly, and the point & figure also shows a distinct cup & handle.
I see a big breakout in the near future, perhaps catalyzed by a fed rate pause. In the nearest term, we have an island top on the daily, with declining money flow index, so there could be a small pullback, but nothing to get alarmed about.
I would like to add some semis on a dip....
U-shaped volume pattern
A U-shaped volume pattern is a technical analysis indicator that can be used to identify potential turning points in the price of a security. The pattern consists of a sharp increase in volume followed by a sharp decrease in volume, which forms a U-shape on the chart.
The U-shaped volume pattern is often interpreted as a sign that a trend is coming to an end. The sharp increase in volume at the beginning of the pattern indicates that there is a lot of buying or selling pressure in the market. This pressure can push the price of the security up or down, depending on the direction of the trend.
The sharp decrease in volume at the end of the pattern indicates that the buying or selling pressure is starting to dissipate. This can be a sign that the trend is losing momentum and that a reversal is possible.
Of course, the U-shaped volume pattern is not always a reliable indicator of a turning point. The pattern can also be formed for other reasons, such as a news event or a technical event. As a result, it is important to use the pattern in conjunction with other technical indicators and to consider the broader market context before making any trading decisions.
Here are some of the factors that can cause a U-shaped volume pattern:
News events: A major news event, such as a company earnings report or a change in interest rates, can cause a sharp increase in volume. This is because investors are rushing to buy or sell the security in response to the news.
Technical events: A technical event, such as a breakout or a breakdown, can also cause a sharp increase in volume. This is because traders are entering or exiting the market in response to the technical signal.
End of a trend: The end of a trend can also cause a U-shaped volume pattern. This is because the buying or selling pressure that was driving the trend is starting to dissipate.
If you see a U-shaped volume pattern on a chart, it is important to consider the broader market context before making any trading decisions. If the pattern is forming in a strong trend, it is more likely to be a reliable indicator of a turning point. However, if the pattern is forming in a weak trend, it is less likely to be a reliable indicator.
SMH Entry, Volume, Target, StopEntry: when price clears 151.71
Volume: with daily volume greater than 13.30M
Target: 167 area
Stop: Depending on your risk tolerance; 146.62 gets you 3/1 Risk/Reward.
This swing trade idea is not trade advice and is strictly based on my ideas and technical analysis. No due diligence or fundamental analysis was performed while evaluating this trade idea. Do not take this trade based on my idea, do not follow anyone blindly, do your own analysis and due diligence. I am not a professional trader.
SMH - Pennant break?SMH could go either way but my guess based on price action over the last couple days is that it will break lower. Little oversold bounce today but hitting downtrend resistance and Fib resistance on light volume. Looking for a break. QQQ helping out with momentum but also about to hit resistance.
SMH Entry, Volume, Target, Stop, ResistanceWhen price clears 131.79
With WEEKLY volume greater than 39.87M or DAILY volume greater than 7.28M
Target: 149.50 area
Depending on your risk tolerance: 125.88 gets you 3/1 Risk/Reward.
Resistance: 142 and 145 area
This trade idea is not trade advice. This idea is strictly based on my ideas and technical analysis. Not due diligence or fundamental analysis was performed while evaluating this trade idea. Do not take this trade based on my idea, do not follow anyone blindly, do your own analysis and due diligence. I am not a professional trader.
SMH Update (daily chart)SMH recently peaked at 151.71 on May 30, leaving behind two gaps for potential fill in an area of low volume (yellow volume profile highlight). I am expecting a selloff into the gap areas, which also are at key fib levels.
5/30: peak = 151.71
143.89 = 76% fib (Touched today, and 5.2% off peak)
139.05 = 61.8% fib ( 8.3% off peak)
135.14 = 50% fib (10.9% off peak)
The volume profile is based on quarter to date activity, March - today, June 5. I do not expect a bounce off today's low, the 61.8 % or 50% fib areas look more realistic to me.
SMH - running out of steam?SMH getting a lift today from everything except NVDA. AMD TSM and others holding things up and still no real correction in SMH since NVDA earnings and subsequent ramp of all other things "AI". At some point big cap tech and semis will be sold and a correction will ensue. Perhaps sooner than we think.
SMH NVDA SPY & QQQ | Long Term Outlook Resistance Guide- SMH weaker than QQQ today potentially setting daily lower high but bears need more follow through at the moment
- NVDA still potential 4h head and shoulders pattern if we confirm more downside
- SPY very nearing 0.618 fib resistance we saw some money rotate from tech into SPY in the last two days making breath better
- QQQ bull flag confirm still super strong every trend is healthy no closed just at the golden pocket resistance. Most likely scenario is weekly consolidation in the next coming weeks.