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SMH trade ideas

VOLUME FLOW: SEMI'S ($SMH) AGAINST THE BROADER MARKET ($SPY)VOLUME FLOW INDEX: Both $SPY (broader market) and $SMH (semi-conductor industry) are currently in a neutral trend as measured by their 13 Day EMA envelope (top box). Both are also residing in similar places within their longer term downward trends. It is only when we take a look at volume as measured by the Volume Flow Index (VFI) that we can uncover some relative differences that could prove meaningful in the near term. Volume has yet to breach zero line (white horizontal histogram) to the upside in broader market ($SPY, see left lower box). Volume has breached the zero line in the semi-conductor sector($SMH, see lower right box), as illustrated by the yellow vertical line. This would indicate good 'force' behind the recent semi-conductor rally as measured by 'volume follow through' which I would consider a measure of 'conviction'. This could be indicative of a near term preference for the semi's amidst an overall run to defensives in the broader market OR it could just be that semi's are a little bit stickier than the rest of 'growth' and still have some downside wood to chop. Given the semi's association with 'Growth' this divergent volume trend seemed counter-intuitive to the prevailing narrative so I thought I would share. (Not financial advice)
NASDAQ:SMH
by Firewalker_Charts
Rectangle TopAlso a Head and Shoulders pattern with a "wide" head. Bad tops come in all different shapes and sizes and is why I just call them "ugly tops" sometimes. The similarity between top patterns is price hits a certain level and can NOT break the high. Rectangles are easy to measure as it will most often break up or down the width of that rectangle and you need only find the resistance and support lines of the rectangle. A rectangle needs 5 touches of the 2 trendlines. An Ugly top or Head and Shoulders top is easy to see for me, but the neckline can be tricky to see. The neckline is support until broken and often you will see a struggle for price to stay above it with small dips below it. The shoulders should be close to equidistant from the head and somewhat close in price when compared to each other, but very rarely exact. Once the neckline is broken, you should see resistance there if you chose the right level. No recommendation. Targets possible are below price in orange type with possible targets 1 in larger type. Targets 2 are in smaller type in case possible T1 are passed.
NASDAQ:SMHShort
by lauralea
4
SMH: A POTENTIAL DEAD CAT BOUNCEDuring this Semiconductor ETF's rise to the top, price retested the high 220s and low 230s zone multiple times. This price range acted as a zone of support (marked by the green box). Since august of 2022, SMH price action has struggled to rise above this zone, turning this zone into resistance (marked by the red box). Additionally, SMH's downfall (beginning early 2022) has respected the blue downward trendline. We observed a break of the trendline in November of 2022. If price respects the trendline, we will see a bounce to the upside. If price returns to the red box zone (around low 230s), look for a reversal to occur consistent with the previous price rejections at this range.
NASDAQ:SMH
by jasongoldman1
SMH ETF (Global Semiconductor’s trend”..20/Oct/22VanEck ETF which “tracking /invest” on 25 global major semiconductors stocks. Probably found its “base” @ around 148.90 - P/s. Probably the “next recession” might be caused by “geopolitical tensions” cause by 2 big brothers..A kinds of “wars e.g chips war, trade war, or “actual war”....” Probably an “Imposed /sanctioned by” a “freedom democracy/free trade” country toward “a so called not a democracy country”..
NASDAQ:SMH
by SteveTan
If semis don't ramp, I'd be SHOCKEDHey all, if you were to look at my portfolio right now, you'd probably be surprised at how much my allocation is shifted towards semiconductor names like NVDA, SMH, AMD, AMAT; I look at all these charts and see nothing except for upside in the near-term. Names are all overdue a significant bounce and are basing as I write this post. In my eyes, it's a matter of time until these names ramp to the upside. I would not be surprised at all if TSLA's earnings call tonight catalyzes things. Even IF this trade does seem to go awry(Which I sincerely doubt will happen), I expect there to be easy exit opportunities at break-even, but I'll worry about that if we get to that point. Regardless, I think semiconductors long here is the best trade in the stock market over the next week. I believe AMAT is my biggest position long, SMH second largest, then NVDA/AMD
NASDAQ:SMHLong
by MichaelEugen1
16
SMH swing shortHey all, I've been busy over the last 3 weeks traveling through Europe and haven't been able to post all my up-to-date convictions. In short though, I am looking below. I think semiconductors are likely going to be the best risk-reward short you will see in a while. I'm currently short on SMH and many other semiconductor names at slightly higher prices, but I think now is still a great entry. I have a sneaking suspicion NVDA may fall hard after earnings, and I wouldn't want to miss being on the right side of that.
NASDAQ:SMHShort
by MichaelEugen1