Strategy Finished Consolidating, New High With BTC Leading MicroStrategy (MSTR), the stock is currently demonstrating significant volatility and a strong correlation with Bitcoin's price movements, acting almost like a leveraged play on the cryptocurrency.
From a charting perspective, MSTR has been in a long-term bullish trend since its pivot to a Bitcoin acquisition strategy. However, it's prone to sharp corrections following Bitcoin's pullbacks, indicating high risk and reward. Key technical levels to watch would include its 200-day and 50-day moving averages as potential support and resistance zones.
The charts are now flashing strong signals that this sideways accumulation phase is drawing to a close. With Bitcoin (BTC) showing renewed strength and eyeing fresh all-time highs, MSTR, as the largest corporate holder of the digital asset, appears poised to break out. The correlation remains a potent force, and the current setup suggests MSTR is ready to re-engage its upward trajectory, targeting new price peaks in tandem with BTC
STRK trade ideas
Strategy Set To Drop —Selling Bitcoin?If you knew a stock was going to crash but this stock is related to Bitcoin and always moves with Bitcoin but now is about to detach, would you tell others?
Bitcoin is already trading at a new All-Time High and six weeks green. Ok, let's forget about Bitcoin because this is about MicroStrategy (now Strategy).
The MSTR stock is bearish now. Very bearish.
The top happened in November 2024.
9-May 2025 we have a long-term lower high. Days at resistance and this lower high is confirmed.
A scandal is about to be uncovered?
A change of "strategy"? Hah, nice play on words.
Is strategy going to have a change of strategy?
This change of strategy obviously will end up screwing everybody who holds this stock?
I don't know... I mean, who knows.
Here is what I know. The chart signals are pointing down. Bearish confirmed so, down we go.
Namaste.
MSTR: Island = Evening StarAnother key detail is that MSTR has gapped down.
And with a gap up on 8 May, the area above is now an island.
If MSTR closes in this area, then if we blended the island into 1 candle, then an Evening Star pattern is printing.
Also considering that this move began with a high momentum upside shakeout ,this is starting to look quite bearish.
And so this may be a leading indicator for Bitcoin.
Not advice
Short MicroStrategy as Bitcoin Volatility Intensifies
Targets:
- T1 = $355.43
- T2 = $343.68
Stop Levels:
- S1 = $375.00
- S2 = $385.00
**Wisdom of Professional Traders:**
This analysis synthesizes insights from thousands of professional traders and market experts, leveraging collective intelligence to identify high-probability trade setups. The wisdom of crowds principle suggests that aggregated market perspectives from experienced professionals often outperform individual forecasts, reducing cognitive biases and highlighting consensus opportunities in MicroStrategy.
**Key Insights:**
- MicroStrategy continues to exhibit a strong correlation with Bitcoin price movements due to its extensive cryptocurrency holdings. This linkage makes the stock especially vulnerable to Bitcoin's ongoing volatility.
- With Bitcoin showing signs of weakness and skepticism surrounding its near-term recovery, MicroStrategy faces heightened bearish pressure, compounded by its leveraged exposure to the crypto market.
- The company’s business model, combined with significant shareholder dilution, places additional risks on equity holders during times of unfavorable cryptocurrency market conditions.
**Recent Performance:**
MicroStrategy has seen a sharp pullback from its 52-week highs of $543 to its current price of $369.51, following a substantial 31% retracement. This decline mirrors Bitcoin's recent 4% dip, showcasing the tight alignment between the two assets. While the stock previously attempted to recover from its support near the 200-period moving average, it has struggled to maintain an upward trajectory amidst continued crypto-related volatility.
**Expert Analysis:**
Market experts highlight the critical risks in MicroStrategy’s strategy, particularly in its decision to fund Bitcoin purchases through debt and equity issuances. While this leverages its bullish thesis on Bitcoin, it significantly amplifies risks when sentiment turns bearish.
Overall, analysts forecast limited upside compared to downside risks, advising caution and favoring short positions. The underperformance of MicroStrategy relative to Bitcoin—attributed to operational inefficiencies and shareholder dilution—further underscores the pessimism around the stock’s outlook.
**News Impact:**
Recent updates about MicroStrategy’s $2.1 billion share issuance for Bitcoin acquisitions have heightened the perception of risk surrounding the company's equity. This reliance on external funding and its singular focus on Bitcoin make the stock acutely sensitive to cryptocurrency dynamics. As Bitcoin struggles to regain upward momentum, MicroStrategy’s share price faces ongoing pressure, aligning with wider bearish sentiment in the crypto market.
**Trading Recommendation:**
MicroStrategy remains a high-risk, Bitcoin-sensitive equity, making it an attractive short opportunity in the current environment. Targets are set at $355.43 (T1) and $343.68 (T2), with stop-loss thresholds carefully managed at $375.00 (S1) and $385.00 (S2). Traders are advised to maintain disciplined risk controls to navigate potential reversals, but the overall bearish setup supports a strong short positioning outlook at this time.
Bitcoin Income: STRK vs IBIT – Dividends, Covered CallsThis video provides a performance breakdown between two Bitcoin-related financial instruments—STRK (Strike) and IBIT—through the lens of passive income generation. I compare traditional buy-and-hold strategies with more active income tactics such as covered calls. Key insights include:
STRK provided the best return YTD (26%) and yielded approximately 1.54% in passive dividends, requiring minimal effort—just buy, hold, and collect.
IBIT, while slightly trailing in growth (13%), is optimized for a covered call strategy, offering an impressive 6% income yield through active options trading.
The analysis highlights the trade-off between simplicity and engagement—STRK is more passive-friendly, while IBIT offers higher yields for those willing to manage options.
This is ideal for tech-savvy investors exploring Bitcoin ETFs and derivative income strategies, weighing convenience versus return potential.
MSTR Weekly Options Trade Plan 2025-05-24MSTR Weekly Analysis Summary (2025-05-24)
Summary of Each Model’s Key Points
Grok/xAI Report
Technicals: Short-term and daily charts show bearish momentum but oversold conditions (5-min RSI ~22, price near lower Bollinger Band) hint at a bounce. Sentiment: Elevated VIX (22.29), negative Bitcoin-bet headlines, insider sell-offs; max pain at $400 may cap upside. Direction: Moderately Bearish with potential for a relief rally. Trade: Buy $370 call at $13.00, aiming for +25% ($16.25), stop at 20% loss ($10.40), 65% confidence.
Claude/Anthropic Report
Technicals: Deep bearish momentum below all EMAs; M5 RSI oversold, daily RSI near oversold. Sentiment: Rising VIX, mixed Bitcoin headlines, heavy put open interest at $350–$360. Direction: Moderately Bearish but conflicting bounce signals. Trade: No trade—confidence only 45%.
Llama/Meta Report
Technicals: Bearish trend on both timeframes; oversold M5 RSI. Sentiment: Elevated volatility; mixed news; max pain theory. Direction: Moderately Bearish. Trade: Buy $367.50 put (ask $12.30–bid $11.85), profit +20%, stop 50%, 70% confidence.
Gemini/Google Report
Technicals: Overwhelming bearish across EMAs, RSI, MACD, price breaks on high volume. Sentiment: VIX rising, negative news, skewed options flow. Direction: Strongly Bearish. Trade: Buy weekly $310 put (est. ask ~$0.70), target 100–200% gains, stop at $0.35, 65% confidence.
DeepSeek Report
Technicals: Bearish on both charts but oversold; mixed reversal vs. continuation signals. Sentiment: VIX up, mixed news, distant max pain. Direction: Neutral/Unclear. Trade: No trade—confidence 55%. Areas of Agreement and Disagreement
Agreement
Broadly bearish technical setup: price under EMAs, negative MACD, RSI oversold short term. Elevated volatility (VIX ~22) supporting larger swings. Weekly expiry options, with traders positioned for downside (heavy put OI).
Disagreement
Trade bias: Grok favors a call bounce; Llama and Gemini prefer deep-OTM puts; Claude and DeepSeek opt out. Strike choice: Ranges from near-the-money calls ($370) to far-OTM puts ($310). Confidence thresholds and risk/reward preferences differ, leading to divergent trade/no-trade conclusions. Conclusion and Recommendation
Overall Market Direction Consensus: Bearish (various intensities from moderate to strong).
Recommended Trade: Buy a naked weekly put.
• Strike Selection: $355 put offers a balance of liquidity (OI 2,042), premium ($7.45 ask), and proximity to current price (downside leverage without needing an extreme move). • Expiry: 2025-05-30 weekly. • Premium: $7.45 (within or near preferred risk range). • Entry Timing: At market open. • Profit Target: +25% (~$9.31). • Stop Loss: –20% (~$5.96). • Position Size: 1 contract. • Confidence Level: 65%.
Key Risks and Considerations
A short-term bounce could spike implied vol and lift call skew, hurting put value. Support at $362 may hold, capping downside. Elevated volatility could widen spreads; ensure limit orders. Maintain strict stop-loss to prevent outsized premium decay losses.
TRADE_DETAILS (JSON Format)
{ "instrument": "MSTR", "direction": "put", "strike": 355.0, "expiry": "2025-05-30", "confidence": 0.65, "profit_target": 9.31, "stop_loss": 5.96, "size": 1, "entry_price": 7.45, "entry_timing": "open", "signal_publish_time": "2025-05-25 09:30:00 UTC-04:00" } 📊 TRADE DETAILS 📊 🎯 Instrument: MSTR 🔀 Direction: PUT (SHORT) 🎯 Strike: 355.00 💵 Entry Price: 7.45 🎯 Profit Target: 9.31 🛑 Stop Loss: 5.96 📅 Expiry: 2025-05-30 📏 Size: 1 📈 Confidence: 65% ⏰ Entry Timing: open 🕒 Signal Time: 2025-05-24 14:57:32 EDT
Disclaimer: This newsletter is not trading or investment advice but for general informational purposes only. This newsletter represents my personal opinions based on proprietary research which I am sharing publicly as my personal blog. Futures, stocks, and options trading of any kind involves a lot of risk. No guarantee of any profit whatsoever is made. In fact, you may lose everything you have. So be very careful. I guarantee no profit whatsoever, You assume the entire cost and risk of any trading or investing activities you choose to undertake. You are solely responsible for making your own investment decisions. Owners/authors of this newsletter, its representatives, its principals, its moderators, and its members, are NOT registered as securities broker-dealers or investment advisors either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, CFTC, or with any other securities/regulatory authority. Consult with a registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, and/or financial advisor. By reading and using this newsletter or any of my publications, you are agreeing to these terms. Any screenshots used here are courtesy of TradingView. I am just an end user with no affiliations with them. Information and quotes shared in this blog can be 100% wrong. Markets are risky and can go to 0 at any time. Furthermore, you will not share or copy any content in this blog as it is the authors' IP. By reading this blog, you accept these terms of conditions and acknowledge I am sharing this blog as my personal trading journal, nothing more.
$MSTR Monthly Top Form: “Backwards 4” + Multi-TF RSI DivergenceBefore we begin... trading view is restricting my post for an indicator.. maybe someone reported it... not sure... doesn't seem like a problem... it's a TD Sequential ...
🔍 The Setup — Monthly “Backwards 4” Pattern + Multi-Timeframe Breakdown
We’re now forming the 5th candle in what I call the “Backwards 4” formation, or the upside-down lowercase ‘h’ — a recurring reversal structure I’ve tracked at macro tops.
Structure breakdown:
✅ Strong monthly green candle
2–3. 🔻 Two red candles that retrace the body but don’t break it
✅ A second green candle that re-tests the highs and baits breakout buyers
❌ Final candle closes red → confirms exhaustion → multi-month drawdown begins
We saw this exact setup in early 2021 before MSTR collapsed from $1,000+ to $134. The pattern is now repeating — but this time it’s backed by RSI + MACD divergences on all major timeframes.
📊 Multi-Timeframe Technical Breakdown
📆 Monthly
Inside the “Backwards 4” zone now (candle 5)
RSI Bear Divergence: price made new highs but RSI keeps printing lower highs
MACD flattening after extended expansion
Volume fading for 3 months straight
📌 Momentum is dying while price floats. That’s not strength — that’s late-cycle distribution.
📆 Weekly
TD9 printed this week at the top of a tight 5-month box
RSI rejected at 63.61 — exact same rejection level as last cycle highs
MACD histogram curling while price stayed flat
Range: ~$338–$430 → energy has been spent
📌 This isn’t breakout behavior — it’s a liquidity trap.
📆 Daily
Double top attempt failed at $406
MACD crossed bearish, histogram turning red
RSI Bear Divergence Confirmed:
Price made higher highs from April to May
RSI made lower highs, tagging 66.90 vs. 74.70 earlier this year
📌 Daily has now logged 3 bearish RSI divergence peaks since February.
📋 Trading Plan (as of May 17, 2025)
Position: No current short — stalking ideal entry
Entry Zone: $406–$410 rejection zone (upper box resistance)
Trigger: Daily close under $390 confirms failed breakout
Add Confirmation: Weekly close under $375 = trend shift
Stop: Above $430 monthly high (invalidates breakout fade)
Target 1: $320–$290 (May red close zone)
Target 2: $262 (range midpoint / fib retrace)
Target 3: $240 (prior base support)
Stretch Targets: $175 and $102 if macro breaks down
Waiting for clean structure breakdown before initiating core position. This is a setup worth being early but precise on.
🧠 Final Thoughts:
This is one of my highest conviction macro top setups.
The “Backwards 4” is showing up again with RSI and MACD fading across the board. Price is floating under resistance on weakening momentum, and volume confirms it.
If May closes red, we likely begin a multi-month correction.
I’m watching for the breakdown trigger under $390 to begin building short exposure, targeting sub-$300 by month-end and lower into summer if momentum continues to unwind.
📉📦 Let’s see how it finishes.
$MSTR quick phone idea for 5/23; Short 0DTEThis name seems to have lost steam. I’m all for Saylor and what he believes in but currently this feels set up for a nasty short. Strategy has had numerous monster days to the downside and upside. This thing had a $150 intraday swing off its $550 high. Tomorrow, 5/23, I am going to enter a possible 5-7% short that expires 5/23. Just a quick idea here as I can’t post charts from phone into minds section. Check you guys tomorrow and I’ll be sure to update this. $375, $380, $385.
MicroStrategy ($MSTR) – Fibonacci Extension Zones📊 MicroStrategy ( NASDAQ:MSTR ) – Fibonacci Extension Zones
Not saying it'll reach these levels… but just look at the psychology when you stretch those Fib lines. 🔭
This setup shows:
🔹 Previous High: $543
🔹 1.618 Extension: $735
🔹 2.618 Extension: $1,046
🔹 3.618+: 💥😳
IF it were to split? Game on.
Past price doesn’t guarantee future movement — but the Fib extension isn’t about prediction, it’s about positioning and knowing what levels may cause psychological hesitation, profit-taking, or fresh entries.
🚨 Reminder: Don’t just react. Anticipate. Map it out. Then wait.
MSTR 2025 PROJECTION Technical Summary – MSTR (1D)
🔹 Current Price: $421.84
🔹 Trend: Bullish with strong momentum from key support zones.
Key Support Zones
$350–320 Zone: Recent consolidation area. Could act as support on a pullback.
Unfilled GAP: Between roughly $300–320. Price may gravitate here if $350 support breaks.
Weekly Bottom: $236.01 – strong structural support.
Institutional Buys:
"BOUGHT 4.3B" indicates institutional demand around $240.
Historical accumulation around $100–80.
Major institutional demand between $80–60.
Sell Zones / Resistance Levels
SOLD 6.3B (red box): Prior distribution area between ~$460 and ~$520.
TARGET 475 USD: Strong technical resistance.
TARGET 800 USD (Block W-D): Extended upside target if price breaks above $475 with conviction.
Possible Scenarios and Key Levels
Bullish Scenario:
A break and hold above $475 → likely path toward $800.
Watch for confirming volume.
Bearish / Pullback Scenario:
Rejection at $460–475 could lead to:
Retest of $350–320 zone.
Gap fill near $300–320.
If momentum fades, next strong support is $236 (weekly bottom).
MSTR (Strategy) coming up to $395, the smaller resistance levelNASDAQ:MSTR has rebounded from the bottom fairly fast compared to other stocks and indexes. It's even performed better than Bitcoin itself. However it should be hitting heavy resistance now near 395-400 and above is only heavier resistance. It's time for a pullback and a breather for MSTR. Target is the Point of Control near $350, before going higher. However we could turn bullish again before reaching $350
I personally know someone who played with fire by buying MSTR options calls while it was dropping before, meaning he was trying to catch a falling knife and got burnt finally. He lost nearly $500,000 because of it. So I don't mess with options personally, however I will margin trade with stocks and trade futures, forex and leverage trade cryptocurrencies.