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Ishares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFIshares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFIshares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF

Ishares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF

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TLT trade ideas

Don't give up and buy TLTWe have a new rate cut, congratulations! The Fed rate is now 4.5%. What is happening in the market, and why does the effect of the rate seem to "work in reverse"? After all, TLT should have been above 100 long ago, especially after so many rate cuts. Yes, that's entirely correct, so why are all our accounts in the red? First and foremost—the most important thing—never sell U.S. Treasury bonds at a loss. Second, the market is "inclined" or "disposed" to believe that the Fed is either lying or doesn't have a proper grasp of the situation. Due to domestic political changes and the effects of Trump's policies, inflation is expected to remain high for a prolonged period—potentially above 3%. Even in that scenario, a yield of 4.7% or higher on 20+ year bonds remains attractive. More on that later, but in the real sector, following the elections, the Chinese yuan has already depreciated by over 5% against the U.S. dollar. RIGHT NOW, the U.S. debt market is the most attractive market with its 3.1% economic growth.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by gorgevorgian
4
Again TLT, again 108 targetI’m still supporting 20+ bonds, and this time I’ve chosen the technical approach. I’m not entirely sure if I’ve made the correct calculations using the XABCD pattern, but the picture seems accurate. When the market has concerns about tax reductions, strict measures against migrants, sanctions, etc., and how all of this will affect prices and, specifically, inflation, don’t forget to consider the opposite side of reality. Before all these factors fully materialize, it will take years. During those years, the Trump administration is preparing to make aggressive cuts in public spending, introduce new optimization plans, and more. This can have a direct negative impact on both inflation and the labor market.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by gorgevorgian
Opening (IRA): TLT February 21st 87 Covered Call... for a 85.97 debit. Comments: Going long at or near November lows, selling the -75 call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, with the built-in defense of the short call. I'm also looking to snag the January and potentially the February dividends here. This is a bit longer-dated than I ordinarily like to go, but I'm not doing a ton here besides waiting for January setups to come in/be managed. The obvious variant is to sell the standard -30 delta against: TLT Feb 21st 94 covered call, 89.72 debit, 4.28 max. 4.77% ROC at max where the short call is paying >1% of the strike price in credit. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 85.97/share Max Profit (ex. dividends): 1.03 ROC at Max: 1.20% 50% Max: .52 ROC at 50% Max: .60% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max after at least the January dividend drops.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by NaughtyPines
$TLT The ReprieveNASDAQ:TLT has currently been granted a stay of execution as the relief rally kicks in. On the daily we can see clear signs of a bull flag pattern with upper level targets at the gaps of 95, 96, and 98$. Currently having turned green on the Bull/Bear Indicator, this little yield is getting ready to slaughter bears in the short term and return zombified gains. Get it while its good, the CCI is printing a high probability long. Once price action returns to a discount level, the sell off may yet continue. H8ters Beware. I thought I saw your mom in here..
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by Midgar-
Opening (IRA): TLT December 20th 88 Covered Call... for a 86.84 debit. Comments: High IVR at 74.8% plus weakness. Looking to grab both the November 1st and December 1st dividends here while I twiddle my thumbs waiting for the general election to pass, selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 86.84 Max Profit (Excluding Dividends): 1.16 Max Profit (With Dividends): 1.80 ROC at Max Excluding Dividends: 1.34% ROC at Max (With Dividends): 2.07% Immediately post-fill, I put in a GTC order to take profit at .20 short of max or 87.80, but may take if off after the December dividend drops if something more "sexy" gives me that come hither look.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by NaughtyPines
2
Still holding the TLT long, 100 even 117+I am still holding the TLT long, not because I have a large position, but rather because I am constantly trying to objectively analyze and share with you. Let’s explore the US Treasury Actives Yield Curve today: Of course, when the rate was 5.5%, it was much more inverted. Today, we already have a significant divergence between the money market and bonds. From notes to 30-year bonds, our curve is mostly normal (with the exception of the 20- and 30-year bonds). However, the market still cannot fully allocate in short bills. Nevertheless, this is a huge signal that the market is expecting just another series of rate cuts. At a 4.75% rate, under other equal conditions, it is normal for the market to quote 20+ year bonds in the 4.6-5% range, but it is not normal for this to happen in an inverted curve. I do not rule out that the yield on 20+ year bonds is much closer to 5% than 3%. But I cannot disagree that sooner or later we will witness the approach of the 4% boundary, which in turn implies TLT moving to the 100 level. The long-term debt market likes at least a 1-2 year stable outlook, which will be achieved during the formation of Trump’s cabinet. As the Fed already mentioned in its last meeting, it will try to maintain independence. I believe that Trump’s administration will not directly intervene in the Fed’s affairs. At the same time, the Fed will need to act in future rate cuts, particularly by cooling the labor market and stabilizing inflation. It is clear that no significant changes will occur until the December meeting, but it is certain that the market will at least see the future administration’s outlook, and this is already a crucial event that will instill confidence in the long-term debt market. Of course, there are several fundamental reasons that could be discussed in detail, but not today.) So, TLT towards 100."
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by gorgevorgian
Time to buy $TLT for a trade to $100?I think we could see a short term rally in $TLT. On low timeframes today, it looks like we've formed a double bottom and that price is bouncing off of the lower trend line. I think we could see a rally up into the $100-102 region from here. My base case is for price to reject that region and then form one more leg lower before a sustainable bounce in bonds. Let's see how it plays out. I marked off both levels to the upside and to the downside to account for both scenarios once price has broken out of the structure.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by benjihyam
4
Ishares 20+ Year Treasury Tumble with -15% crash ??On the above monthly chart price action has seen a nice 25% rise since November 2023. A number or reasons now exist to be bearish. Incidentally, with all the recently published ideas on Tradingview, Without Worries appears to be the only one who is bearish. The reasons? 1) Broken market structure confirmation. 2) Active price action resistance. 3) Rising wedge. A breakdown confirmation will see price action correct 17%. 4) $76 is the next support level, which is incidentally the measured move forecast by the bearish wedge identified in (3). Is it possible price action continues to rise as most of Tradingview is calling for? Sure Is it probable? No. Ww
NASDAQ:TLTShort
by without_worries
29
TLT Flipping ResistanceIn my last post I discussed TLT as a great trade based on a technical basis and also confluent the macro-economic picture. With Trump as the new elect president, it is interesting that the narrative of a flare-up in inflation has not skyed yields and TLT recovers from a nice drop to 90$. Here I am showing the last 2 times where TLT bottomed and then rallied. Each period of time took about 60 days give or take a few to thrust up through resistance. I believe we are experiencing a similar bottoming process now. There is a good chance that we receive some more opportunities to accumulate shares and leaps near 90$ again. Flipping Resistance: As you can see, I have some trendlines drawn that seem to be boxing price in and out of certain areas. I believe we will see a flipping of this diagonal down resistance line and TLT move to the upside to test some horizontal resistance in the 100-105$ area. Quotes from the great theologian Martin Luther: "Every man must do two things alone; he must do his own believing and his own dying." "All who call on God in true faith, earnestly from the heart, will certainly be heard, and will receive what they have asked and desired" "Is it not a thing most abominable, that God who feeds so many mouths, should be held in such low esteem by me, that I will not trust him to feed me? Yea, that a guilder, thirty-eight cents, should be valued more highly than God, who pours out his treasures everywhere in rich profusion. For the world is full of God and his works. He is everywhere present with his gifts, and yet we will not trust in him, nor accept his visitation." Hebrews 11:1 Now faith is confidence in what we hope for and assurance about what we do not see .
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by rhall6451
1
Why I think TLT is still a buyThe Fed fund rate has dropped 0.5%. Why hasn't bonds went up? -The fear is inflation will rise again and thus requiring the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates to combat inflation. Have we seen this before? -News from 9/18/2007 www.nbcnews.com The Federal Reserve Tuesday surprised financial markets with an aggressive half-point cut in a key lending rate, lowering borrowing costs for businesses and consumers in response to a housing downturn that threatens to spread to the broader economy. Economic growth was moderate during the first half of the year, but the tightening of credit conditions has the potential to intensify the housing correction and to restrain economic growth more generally. Today’s action is intended to help forestall some of the adverse effects on the broader economy that might otherwise arise from the disruptions in financial markets and to promote moderate growth over time. Readings on core inflation have improved modestly this year. However, the Committee judges that some inflation risks remain, and it will continue to monitor inflation developments carefully. -This is not to say that there isn't a possibility that inflation will rise, but it is notable that the fear was similar. The Fed has stated that they intend to lower interest rates to between 3-3.5%. We are currently at 5%. " FOMC policymakers' own estimates of where short-term rates will be in December 2025 is, on average, a little more than 3%, with a median forecast of 3.4%. That forecast was updated at the FOMC's last meeting on September 18." -Assuming the Fed is telling the truth and plans to lower rates to 3-3.5%. Bonds should reflect that. Sooner or later.. -Showing how we can use 1-US10Y as a base to understand TLT on a longer time basis as TLT only goes back to 2002. Even if TLT is longer term bonds vs 10y yields -Yields trend with fed fund rates, but it can front run or lag as it is still based on the market's opinion on what the future holds. -From a technical perspective. Chart patterns of yields closely resemble 1982. -2024 TLT vs 1982 1-US10Y -Bonds and stocks are not 100% correlated, but in the event of a stock crash - the Fed will lower interest rates to help the economy and thus increasing bonds. Nasdaq looks familiar technically as sudden sharp downward move and then met with an uptrend into liquidity but met with exhaustion candles. No one knows if/when a crash will come, but the takeaway is that there are many indicators/fundamentals/chart patterns/whatever have you that are lining up at the same time.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by stuco
4
TLT UpWhy am I still expecting TLT to rise? Let’s start with the fundamental reasons. After the election, when we focus on Trump’s four main economic directions, it’s hard to think anything other than that we’re in for inflation growth, an increase in interest rates, and so on. Specifically: 1. A 10-20% tariff on imported goods, and a sudden 60% on goods imported from China. This naturally points to price increases for goods, and we’ve already seen this kind of policy back in 2016. However, in the past eight years, many geopolitical perceptions have changed, and the US position in the global market is substantially different from what it was eight years ago. Some restrictions on certain types of goods might be possible, but applying tariffs across all goods? - I don’t believe so. 2. Income tax reduction. What does this mean? Yes, it’s a realistic but very low-weighted plan. In line with populism, there will be a reduction in taxes, but it can hardly have a significant impact on the overall US budget deficit. 3. Deporting immigrants. To some extent, it will have a minimal effect on the labor market. It’s important to note that immigrants’ labor is not generally secured within the US labor market anyway, and it’s unlikely that US residents would have greatly expanded opportunities in their place. 4. Growth in energy production volumes. It would be redundant to write long paragraphs on how this will have a positive impact on prices. These four points sum up the populist promises. In another reality, the US Federal Reserve is successfully battling inflation; abnormally high rates only harm issuers, while European spreads are reaching historical highs. After the 1980s, Bond Vigilantes might be set for a return, which would pose significant problems for US Treasuries. We’re waiting for the Fed’s press conference today.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by gorgevorgian
TLT - head and sholdersThe iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) is experiencing downward pressure, and a head and shoulders pattern in its technical chart suggests further potential declines. This formation, indicating a shift from an uptrend to a downtrend, is being reinforced by several factors: 1. **Rising Treasury Yields**: Higher yields, especially on 10-year Treasury bonds, reduce the appeal of long-duration bonds, causing TLT's value to drop as yields increase. 2. **Strong Economic Data**: Robust economic indicators, including strong GDP growth and low unemployment, have heightened expectations of future rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, which dampens long-term bond prices. 3. **Political Developments**: Potential spending cuts or fiscal adjustments under a changing administration are influencing market dynamics, contributing to the rise in yields and the downward trend in TLT. This combination of technical patterns, economic conditions, and political considerations supports a bearish outlook for TLT, which could benefit short positions in the near term.
NASDAQ:TLTShort
by aznric3boi91