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TLT trade ideas

TLT - Intermediate BUY Set-UpHere is my road map for TLT... T-Bonds This will have significant ramifications across many correlated markets. Think ES, DXY, Gold etc... I believe we close to embarking on a C wave move up to the opposing upper channel line. This could take on a variety of shapes/slopes. Time will tell. The bigger move ahead is down... although the move ahead will be worth participating in. See my published ideas linked below covering TBonds yields and ES/SPX pathways related to this supposition. Weekly view of TLT here:
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by oliverrathbun
Latest Rate Trend The current probability of interest rates, as depicted in the chart, indicates an improvement rather than a decline, with the expectation of this trend emerging shortly. Presently, I am opting to float rather than lock rates, at least until next week. The Federal Reserve's modest increase of 25 basis points suggests a potential deceleration or cessation of rate hikes. The imminent failure of PacWest Bank highlights the impact of the Fed rate hikes on the economy, necessitating a pivot or reversal to prevent widespread failures.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by PayItForwardLending
Wave 4 still has the powerThe trend still remains possessed by the triangle in wave 4. FOMC meeting is tomorrow, and waves E of major trends often end on the news. The news never define the market. Traders wait for the news not to trade the actual statistics or decision, but to see what the others will be doing in response to the news. A few seconds or minutes after the news hit the wire the entire process of "trading the news" gets reduced to simply looking at the charts and trading the structures that have been there since long. This week the TLT chart should produce a spike towards 108..110, potentially even making a shallow new high, and then the structure will be completed, the triangular wave 4 will end, and wave 5 will begin. Wave 5 of the sell-off in Treasuries is inevitable, it will bring 10Y to 10%, cause a crash of the Euro to 0.75, and will force SPX to land at 1500. In the next 2-3 months we are going to see an event that never happened in the history of the markets.
NASDAQ:TLT
by AndyM
Long bond TLT looking more and more constructive in this rangeThe TLT has been mostly chopping sideways for the last 4 months, and while it is still directionless, it has been able to stay above it's cycle lows and not roll over to retest them. This consolidation is looking more and more healthy and if we can finally get some closes above 109, this could finally initiate a second leg higher to those Q2 2022 levels. Started a position here and would add on strength on continuation.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by EvanMedeiros
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NASDAQ:TLTShort
by PayItForwardLending
1
How I will profit from a major global recession with this tradeIn my opinion, the global economy is heading into dark times. I have revised my initial position of shorting equities to a much smaller position and instead will be going long government credit via TLT. What's nice about this speculation is it pays you to own it vs the other option of shorting equities. The banking crisis has shown the cracks in the global economy. Not just in the US but globally. Yield curves from Germany to Canada are completely inverted. Typically liquidity is in the highest demand during the Spring and Fall. I expect this trade to pay off in late Q3 or Q4 of this year. The yield curve does NOT lie! It is predicting a major US recession. What we just saw with the regional banks in the US and Credit Suisse is just the start. During that crisis, we once again saw how bonds were massively in demand as people scrambled to get liquidity through safe assets. There is nothing more technical about this trade than support and resistance and price action. This is a fundamental trade. A trade that I will be extremely aggressive with on my sizing as I believe the probabilities are very high.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by MarketManiaCA
8