Mortgage Interest Rates Current TrendPlease review the video for a quick brief of current interest rates and the trend that we are seeing.
TLT trade ideas
Possible V bottom on TLTLong term treasury bond ETF TLT looks like it may have put in a V bottom pattern in the last few weeks. This is also reflecting the current yield curve inversions between short and long term yields. I am keeping an eye out to see what the next pull back looks like.
One more low for $TLT before we see a rally -$88 targetUnless price can break resistance here, we're just seeing another lower high. This sets up $TLT for one more move lower.
I think price is likely to retrace from here and take out the recent lows-- then we should see price bottom in the $88 range.
Let's see how it plays out from here.
TLT 102.85 Target Achieved, New Pattern EmergingIn this update we review the recent price action in TLT and identify the next high probability trading pattern and price objectives to target
Double Bottom Reversal on 20 Yr Treasury BondAfter almost a year since I published this short idea for TLT.
The first bounce this summer was quickly snuffed out by the uber hawkish Jackson Hole speech from Jerome Powell when he told the world there was more blood to come.
A lot of bulls and bears have been hung out to dry over this year long bear market.
I don't know what every one was smoking this summer thinking Crypto was going to save them from the most difficult bear market since 2008.
A year long bear market that was testing just how much banks learned from the 2008 housing crisis.
Did Jerome Powell actually stave off a global financial crisis.
The 10Yr yield is rolling over after pointing to 2008 levels.
I'm not convinced the worst selling is over, but the next month up to Christmas is a seasonly strong period.
Short term volatility may be in for a post thanksgiving pop like last year, but continues to compress into winter regardless of the bad news.
The S&P should be testing the 200D moving average around the time the next CPI prints in Dec.
While Volatility lets out the last of the bear market volatility. Skew is not. This should concern anyone with financial assets.
Lots of charting ideas coming this Christmas.
* IchanOt believe what I heard today.
* Santa Clause Rally predictions.
* Breaking down what inflation will do next.
* Is reading Gamma a reliable indicator.
In the mean time, have a great Thanksgiving.
If you don't live in Ukraine you have a lot to be thankful for.
Peace and Prosperity are far greater than the Put.
TLT possible swing low Tgt $120.00My dowsing work suggest a trade entry long in TLT with a target up 15% from the low, which = @120. AND coincidentally (or not), that target would also be $15 higher. SO, 15 one way or the other. We'll see and needs to hold the LOD $104.73, which is exactly the 1.272 extension.
Watch for Rx $TLT back to $94.00I do dowsing and other ways of divining the markets. I'm getting that TLT will take a dip from here. It may drop 4% and stall, then reach the $94 target (6.45% from the anticipated high). So, if it breaks my level at a high of $100.42-.49, then I'm wrong. Otherwise, short should be good.
TLT 101.13 Target Achieved, New Pattern EmergingTechnical & Trade View
TLT ishares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Trade View
101.13 Target Achieved, New Pattern Emerging
Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 99.00
Technicals
Primary support is 99.00
Primary upside objective 102.85
Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 101.50
Failure below 99.00 opens a test of 97.90
20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish
Institutional Insights
According to analysts at Goldman Sachs ‘ Based on our valuation-adjusted estimates of preliminary data from the US Treasury ,foreign investors net purchased long-term US securities in September. Foreigninvestors net purchased long-term Treasuries and US equities, and net sold long-term US agency securities and corporate bonds. Private sector investors drove flows across asset classes.Japan was the largest net seller of long-term Treasuries in September, on our valuation-adjusted estimates, as the Ministry of Finance Intervened in foreignexchange markets to support the Yen for the first time in 24 years. Our estimates suggest that this was the largest one-month net sale of long-term Treasuries byJapanese investors since the Treasury’s securities holdings data began in 2012(although March 2022 came close). Belgium was the largest net buyer of long-termTreasuries at the country level. At the regional level, Europe and Latin America netpurchased long-term USTs while Asia was a net seller’
TLT | 20 Year Bond ETF | OverboughtThe fund will invest at least 80% of its assets in the component securities of the underlying index, and it will invest at least 90% of its assets in U.S. Treasury securities that the advisor believes will help the fund track the underlying index. The underlying index measures the performance of public obligations of the U.S. Treasury that have a remaining maturity greater than or equal to twenty years.
Performance of TLT during hike cyclesThe iShares 20 Plus Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) tracks the prices of 20+ year duration bonds and generally moves inversely to the 20/30 year Treasury yield.
Because it gains when yields fall, it is one of the few assets that are guaranteed to appreciate during a hardcore recession or crash which warrants emergency rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
The last two hike cycles allowed for a 25% - 40% appreciation (if timed perfectly).
TLT 99.19 Target Achieved, New Pattern EmergingTechnical & Trade View
TLT Ishares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Trade View
99.19 Target Achieved, New Pattern Emerging
Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 97.90
Technicals
Primary support is 97.90
Primary upside objective 101.13
Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 99.50
Failure below 97.90 opens a test of 96.90
20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish
Today’s New York Cut Option Expiries: 1.1695-00 (414M), 1.1800 (319M)
Institutional Insights
According to analysts at Goldman Sachs ‘ Inflation miss-fueled bond rally likely overdone.Through the week, Fedcommentary has suggested a strong preference to slow down the pace of hiking. The inflation miss—October core CPI rose 0.27% month-over-month,below expectations, with services inflation slowing somewhat more than our economists’ projections—makes the step down at the upcoming FOMC meeting more likely, though Fed speakers appear to have been laying the groundwork fora slower pace irrespective of realized economic data. Markets repriced FOMCOIS beyond this December even more aggressively, both bringing the peak rate back below 5% and pricing additional easing beyond the (lowered) peak. While The details of the CPI report suggest there could be some downside risk to our current projected CPI path, we do not believe this materially changes the risks of hike cycle extension. Outside of unanticipated activity weakness (that is as yet not visible), we see a fundamental inconsistency in this price action. While a deepening of forward curve inversion is indeed appropriate when anticipating a recession, given the underlying strength of the economy, we believe the Fed will need to raise rates above current peak pricing for that to occur; a higher terminal rate, in turn, is more likely if inflation remains uncomfortably high. Either Combination—a higher terminal rate, but current levels of inversion, or the current terminal rate, but less deep inversion—argues for both higher end-2023 forward rates a higher average level of rates over the next two years. In case of the former, the cuts being priced offset the hikes earlier in the year, leaving net Fed pricing for 2023 one of the least aggressive among G10’
#TLT time to buy bonds? 103 targetUS 20 year Treasury Bond ETF has finally managed to break the steep downtrend (DT) channel. I think we can move up to the level of 102-103 where we have an open gap - anchored vwap from 1st August highs as well as the 38.2 fib. Also notice the bullish divergence on the lows
TLT reclaim support?TLT can reclaim its support going back to 2003. If it does, it can fill volume gap to $112
TLT back up the truck set a stop lossTLT back up the truck set a stop loss this garbage is inherently worth zero dollars be careful set stops
Signs Of Trend Reversal Hey Team,
If it holds, this could be a sign of a reversal; fingers crossed. Also large gap in pricing! A gap is an area discontinuity in a security's chart where its price either rises or falls from the previous day's close, with no trading occurring in between. Gaps are common when news causes market fundamentals to change during hours when markets are typically closed, for instance, an earnings call after-hours.
What Does A Gap Tell You?
Gaps typically occur when a piece of news or an event causes a flood of buyers or sellers into the security.
It results in the price opening being significantly higher or lower than the previous day's closing price.
Depending on the kind of gap, it could indicate either the start of a new trend or a reversal of a previous trend.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
A gap is a discontinuous space in the price chart of an asset or security, often occurring between trading hours. There are four different types of gaps:
Common Gaps
Common gaps generally get filled relatively quickly (usually within a couple of days) when compared to other types of gaps. Common gaps are also known as "area gaps" or "trading gaps" and tend to be accompanied by normal average trading volume.
Breakaway Gaps
A breakaway gap occurs when the price gaps above a support or resistance area, like those established during a trading range. When the price breaks out of a well-established trading range via a gap, that is a breakaway gap. A breakaway gap could also occur out of another type of chart pattern, such as a triangle, wedge, cup and handle rounded bottom or top, or head and shoulders pattern.
Runaway Gaps
A runaway gap, typically seen on charts, occurs when trading activity skips sequential price points, usually driven by intense investor interest. In other words, there was no trading, defined as an exchange of ownership in security, between the price point where the runaway gap began and where it ended.
& Exhaustion Gaps
An exhaustion gap is a technical signal marked by a break lower in prices (usually on a daily chart) that occurs after a rapid rise in a stock's price over several weeks prior. This signal reflects a significant shift from buying to selling activity that usually coincides with falling demand for a stock. The implication of the signal is that an upward trend may be about to end soon.
Gaps are easy to spot, but determining the type of gap is much harder to figure out.
Source: Investopedia.com
TLT Targeting A Test of 99.19Technical & Trade View
TLT (ishares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF)
Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 93.27
Technicals
Primary support is 93.27
Primary pattern objective is 99.19
Acceptance above 95.40 next pattern confirmation
Acceptance below 93.20 opens a test of 90.30
20 Day VWAP bearish , 5 Day VWAP bearish
Notes
US CPI released today, volatility expected around the print
Goldman Sachs expects ‘a below-consensus 0.44% increase in core CPI in October (vs. 0.5% consensus), which would lower the year-on-year rate to 6.46% (vs. 6.5% consensus). We expect moderate increases in both food and energy prices to raise headline CPI by 0.49% (vs. 0.6% consensus), which would lower the year-on-year rate to 7.8% (vs. 7.9% consensus)'
Going forward Goldman 'expect monthly core CPI inflation to remain in the 0.3-0.4% range for the next couple of months before edging down to 0.2-0.3% next year. We forecast year-over-year core CPI inflation of 6.2% in December 2022, 3.3% in December 2023, and 2.7% in December 2024. The deceleration we expect in 2023 is driven more by goods than services categories'
TLT heads up on where SPY is headingPreviously, mentioned about how TLT, UST10Y and SPY have a special relationship where the former two leads the latter. And overlaying the SPY on the TLT daily chart, there is a warning given…
That TLT is heading down given that it failed a resistance level at 98, and more recently at 95. Support is at 93, and failing this brings TLT near its recent low.
The MACD is turning down, while the Vol Div clearly crossed down.
Oddly enough, while the correlation between SPY and TLT is uncanny, the SPY is still far off it’s recent low. A suggestion to manage risk surely? Hint hint.
IMHO, this another indication that the SPY is revisiting its last low… especially when TLT does that soon.
TLT weekly end of the ABC correctionBuy shares of TLT Stop at $97.02
TLT weekly end of the ABC correction at the bottom of the Mean Reverse Channel
TLT -- When I'm Going to Thinking About Going Long 20 Year+The short answer is: at pre-Great Recession levels when the yield on the 10-year T note was at 5.0% or above.
Current forecasts for the terminal Fed funds rate are for 4.75-5.00 in February of 2023, which could push the 20 year+ paper exchange-traded fund back to near 2006-2007 levels between 80.50 and 82.05. (See, $TNX, June '06 high, 5.245, correspondent with a TLT 82.56 low; June '07 high, 5.316, correspondent with a TLT 82.20 low).
If current bets as to the terminal rate are correct, we should fall short of the 2006 and 2007 levels, but could nevertheless be pretty darn close. And since current bets are that the Fed Funds rate doesn't come off 4.75-5.00 until much later in the year (the current forecast, is, ugh, November of 2023), this would conceivably require a good amount of time to work out.
As we've seen, however, things can change. A few months ago, bets weren't being made on a terminal rate quite this high and that a potential cut would come far sooner in 2023. But, here we are. Inflation could either remain "sticky," or come down rapidly in response to what the Fed has done so far, in which case, we never see the low 80s in 20 year+ maturity paper.
Naturally, if we do get there, I'll look to dip my toe in, whether it be with short puts (which would be a quasi-acquisitional play, most likely in my IRA) or something more directional, like a long call diagonal or a zebra/call ratio backspread ... .
TLT bear market continuationHistorically bad year in bonds as rates are increasing. Rates are still increasing so bonds will continue to be under pressure. Here we have a mean reversion to the bearish trend. I predict a bearish trend continuation back to the lows.
double DOJI ?I am going to preface this post by saying that it is very difficult to apply technical analysis to TLT since it is so much affect by MACRO events... but....
What we have is a DOJI GAPPING DOWN last friday followed by a SPINNING TO BLACK
OR, Arguably
Two Spinning top ONE WHITE ONE BLACK
if there is a reversal (bear trend up breakout) and it happens 52% of the time after the pattern, then we have on average a 9.69% return following the pattern - ($99) and as of now we have a 5.5% bounce to almost $98. Which is about half way from the top of the range I drew.
My point... be careful, may be wait till we break through $99 and retest of $99.
Hope this helps. I don't put a ton of faith that it is a reversal and if we are forming a bottom the I would guess we will retest these lows... It's encouraging though on a technical standpoint.
TLT: As of now, 92.30 (GREEN) is giving the bulls an edgeIt's not been a year to bottom pick TLT. In fact, it's rarely a good idea to bottom pick. However, when a durable S/R Level holds and ideally is re-tested, it creates a situation where buying a low makes sense. And with ones stops very clear, i.e. below 92.30 (GREEN), it's an asymmetric pay-off.
A similar level is seen in 10-Year Notes.
TLT island bottomWow! I certainly did not expect this, but it should be in everyones best interest to flip long for short to mid term. TLT showing signs of a potential bottom (at best a local bottom). Island bottoms are super bullish and SHOULD NOT be faded. Pick your favorite meme stocks and go all-in longs. I think this is a bigger deal than most people think, especially before earnings and GDP news. Obviously this could flip on a dime; however, if we see any continuation our of this in the next couple days, I'd get ready for a fairly large short squeeze. STAY NIMBLE FOLKS
My favorite longs are:
TSLA
COIN
AMC
