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Ishares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF

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TLT trade ideas

Long Duration Bonds (TLT)We haven't had to manage cycle risk, on a sustained basis to the downside, since 2008-2009 and 2000-2002. The biggest problem in financial markets right now is there's no Event. This is just Cycle-Risk and we haven't had to manage cycle risk - on a sustained basis to the downside - since '08-'09, and 2000-2000 before then. The Fed is in QT. Financial conditions are still in accommodative territory, according to the Financial Conditions Index, and we have a long way to go. We will not see any dovish actions from the Fed until the economy deteriorates significantly. I'm convinced we're past the peak in terms of inflationary pressures. Looking at our portfolio, the #1 thing we aren't allocated to is duration. I think the long bond could rally 20-35% from here. I think when it moves, it's not going to let you back in the trade. The world is short-duration right now. Tons of cash on the sidelines. The dollar rising has been supporting U.S. equities. When it deflates, there will be a significant change in style factors. Expect a significant reversal in sector and style factors ahead. Simple rule on when to enter a long bond trade: It's compelling, given historical backtest, to go long the long bond when the year-over-year inflation rate peaks. (18-20% annualized) YoY Inflation data: fred.stlouisfed.org NFCI: fred.stlouisfed.org
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by RHTrading
Recessions and the Flight to SafteyEven though the great recession was ongoing for almost a year prior to being dated by the NBER, it was the announcement itself that started the massive migration from stocks to bonds. The purple square encapsulates this time range. It is best to enter this position before an announcement, which some market participants did. At the current growth rate, we will be in a recession anywhere around October - January, after mass layoffs result in unemployment across the economy. The NBER has responded more quickly in dating the more recent COVID-19 2020 recession, which lasted only a few months and announced around four months after it started.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by coinhoIio
1
How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Long the Treasury MarketHave you ever been told that stocks only go up? How about not trying to time the market? If you have, you might just be the exit liquidity the credit market needs. In this chart I will help you avoid losing money in the next two quarters by rolling your portfolio into cash and the treasury market. If you have followed the last few charts, you are already sitting in a cash portfolio as we head into a disinflationary period. That's right, inflation has already peaked even though the credit market is pricing in a potential 100 basis point hike this month. What isn't being priced in is the recession coming around q4 or q1. This is an opportunity for you to roll some cash into the treasury market and make some gains on top of not losing money. You may have heard something like "the treasury market is broken bro". This is from people that don't understand the dynamics of the treasury market. The treasury instruments do not perform well when interests rates are going up, but the up and coming recession will sharply slice inflation in a very short period of time. This will result in a fed pause. This isn't priced in yet because interest expectations are too high to account for a rapid recessionary disinflation. Look at how quickly TLT started to make gains after the fed stimulated the economy during the pandemic. This is the ideal time to start a DCA into the treasury market because the credit market is still struggling to come to terms with the fact that a soft landing isn't going to happen. When they do, the treasuries will pump in anticipation of a fed pause or even a pivot. I don't think a pivot will happen without a pause, but the credit market, being the pack of wild dogs they are, will conflate the two. This is a trade that might have a very small bit of downside to it at first because of a potential basis point increase, so if you can't handle that, a DCA over the next month or two is best.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by coinhoIio
TLT nearing bottom Still in line with my previous analysis. I approach this from an Elliot Wave perspective with Fibonacci relationship. To me this looks like a macro ABC with final leg down reaching extremes. We are likely in a bullish divergence territory on a Weekly Chart. The chart above is Daily for easier wave count to pin point where C might end. The support box is in gray; this is an area where a price could react with a strong bounce or reversal. As you can see we are already there so support could be found very soon. Another fib support coming up in the 90-96 range where I feel there is a strong possibility for a bottom (not guaranteed, hunting bottoms is a dangerous game). If we take a trend line in wave C from ii to iv and measure the trajectory of where v should end, it also points at a region of 90-96. If the market presents this opportunity it has a number of supports coming together all in that particular area. This bottom could mark the top in US10Y and other treasury bonds since they move inverse to TLT. Also the dollar index is hinting at a top and pushing extremes so I expect a reversal or a top in Sep-Oct timeframe. The month of September / October (2022) might come with fire works! Not a financial advice. Cheers,
NASDAQ:TLT
by Elliot618
2
TLT Bond ETF Setup for Reversal to LONGNASDAQ:TLT On the 4H Chart, TLT is sitting on minor support with major support below that. It is near to the bottom of open Bollinger Bands and is inclined to move through the basis line closer to the upper band. Significant resistance is 5 and 15% upside. I see a swing long trade with the stop loss below the major support and targets before the major resistances, yielding a very good reward for risk. Call options are another possibility to consider.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by AwesomeAvani
TLTThe market is trying to have its cake and eat it too.... The market priced in a rate cut for next year which is why long term bonds rallied recently. Meanwhile they pumped stocks because earnings were good. Can't have it both ways, either we're headed for a recession and stocks should go down or we're not and TLT needs to head down. TLT and the market heading up at the same time really doesn't make sense based on what the Fed is doing. Probably just money flowing out of commodity trading which now appears to be a dead play. I said this a couple of months ago, if they keep pumping oil prices then the Fed will keep raising rates so it's done. Anyways, chart pattern is similar to the December top, made some money overnight with TLT puts, I figured employment numbers would be good.
NASDAQ:TLT
by hungry_hippo