TLT +.41% / While 20Yr @ High Yield of Month 2.06%Today's 20 Year Auction was sloppy and dangerous for Wood Panel FanBoys.
We released the Mastif's who chased Eddie Munster off our land.
Alexandra put a few 10 Gauge Triple Otts in Steve's BUttocks for good
measure.
Hopefully, this will suffice.
IF not - it's on to more persuasive actions. Alex adores the thought.
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www.treasury.gov
Bonds are seeing further FED Props.
Jit's Nasty out there for the 007s.
ZN is barely hanging on... Price Objective for ZN 129.55
Structure is Weakening
DOW at Session Lows.
Crude Dumpster Fire.
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Bond Market Dislocations ahead.
TLT trade ideas
TLT - WeeklyDivergences again for the Tilt - O - Whirl.
Just as the 007's were back to making 180 Hog Calls.
Signs, future signs, do not appear promising.
With a Failure to Break the Prior 152.71 Highs.
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You have a large Bagel to contend with for now.
139s remain open as do 134s.
TLT - ROCs @ Mid Curve007s have been back announcing the latest "Sure Thing"
in Scottish Moors.
Just bring back the Wood Paneling, please.
We would appreciate Steve leaving our Front Yard.
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TLT has not closed over its recent Highs.
All Bets at the Flamingo's Roulette Wheel are on 33.
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With the 2nd highest ROC in a few weeks @ +7.75%...
Sightings of "Wrong Way Conway" @ Gilligans Isle/
We'll Oppose - as when we hear Metal to Metal contact,
loud crunching sounds, glass breaking, blood, and bags
of Frito Lays strewn about...
Train Wreck.
Opening (Margin): TLT January 21st 2 x 160/149 Backratio Spread... for a 20.34 debit.
Comments: Buying 2 x the 82 delta strike and selling the at-the-money 49 delta strike for a setup with a net delta of -115, so this is going to move a lot like short stock. Going with the January expiry to give it more time to work out if it needs it, but will look to take profit at 110% of what I put the trade on for.
TLT Squeezing to stratosphereLike to thank somebody for pointing out the squeeze, but don't know the dude's name. Will likely dca into tlt shares over next 6 months or until squeezed. if anybody is thinking of following this trade just go check my other losses and maybe inverse this like dr. michael burry.
TLT, Trade and trend ranges [02NOV2021]So, in some of the previous plan's descriptions (link below) I have been saying about shorting TLT, and I thought today it would be nice to share a standalone TLT idea, please let me know how it goes.
Signal is extreme bearish, short term has an equal weights on upside to downside, and long term has a -3% downside. I will be adding puts to my core short positions today if I get TLT to be 147.5
PS. Each box span a day, and the code gives short term and long term trends as shown. the trend is shown with the color of the box. The range is calculated on a daily basis.
If you want similar ranges and trends on your ticker, feel free to contact me, I will add them to my list and provide them when the signal is interesting (for free of course)
Redd
TLT - Beyond the Flamingo's Velvet RopesIn the Shadow of the Flamingo's Cheetah cordon, Casino Royale's Buy-In has begun.
A Global Game of Chance?
No.
Baccarat, amongst the Participants, is simply a matter of Bank / Player.
The Bank has a 2.5% edge.
Wealthy Participants are enjoying the "Vesper" - an elixir of extraordinary
mixology - Three measures of Gordon's, one of vodka, half a measure of Kina Lillet.
Fruit and Quinine - Ms. Kina, can be toxic if copious quantities are ingested.
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Insiders began pacing Out-Sized Put Bets on 007.
We have our next setup for TLT and are engaging it with a large SELL into the weak
retracement, which as indicated would fill those overhead Gaps.
Never run to the Baccarat Table, walk, saunter, swagger, swill a Kina in rhythm to stride.
Our Sells are neatly stacked within our several Racks, to be placed and pay the House Vig.
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Looking beyond the Velvet ropes - We are sellers again of Tilt-Lose-Tilt.
Perpetual Bonds with Negative Rates of Return... Playa Play played.
No time to die.
ps. spoiler - 007 Dies
Opening: TLT 2 x December 17th 154/147 Put Backspread Ratio... for a 12.48 debit.
Comments: Here, taking a short-term directional shot in treasuries on strength by buying 2 x the 75 delta puts in the December expiry and selling a 50 delta at-the-money put, yielding a -100.79 dynamic short delta position that will have the "feel" of being short a one lot in TLT from 147.76.
Will start to look to take profit at 110% of what I paid to put the trade on for.
Trade Idea (TLT): Shorting 20+ Year Paper Via Ratio BackspreadA setup to take advantage of a potential rising interest rate environment without knowing exactly when rate hikes will occur.
Typically, this is set up by buying two of the back month 75 deltas and selling the front month 50 delta, such that you create a spread or diagonal with a net delta metric of around 100 (+100 if a bullish assumption spread or digaonal; -100 if bearish).
Here, I would buy the June 75 delta 163's, and sell the December at-the-money 144, resulting in a net delta of -101.65. With a buy-in of 40.81 at the mid ($4081), it isn't particularly cheap, but certainly cheaper than shorting 100 delta of TLT shares outright and with multiple opportunities to reduce cost basis by rolling out the short put aspect if a move isn't immediately forthcoming.
From a trade management standpoint I either (a) look to roll out the short put aspect to reduce cost basis further if the long put vertical aspect (i.e., one of the long put contracts + the short put aspect) of the setup doesn't converge on max; (b) look to take profit on the long put vertical aspect as soon as it converges on max and allow the remaining long put contract to either "ride" or cap it off by selling a short put against, creating a "new" long put diagonal.
Variations:
A long-dated, static long put vertical with lower net delta, specifically targeting 136:
TLT June 17th 136/155 Long Put Vertical (Buying the 155, Selling the 136)
Buying Power Effect: 10.78 ($1078)
Break Even: 144.22 vs. 144.13 (Friday's Close)
Delta: -33.62
Max Profit: 8.22 ($822)
TLT - Opprotunity Approaching once againTLT is aimless, wandering the desert which is Bonds.
ZN has made new Lows for 2021 and continues to squat
over the 130 Level.
We believe it will fail as 10 Year Yields begin to complete
their Consolidation and cross the 1.645 Level - indicating
a move back to the 2021 Highs.
We will be entering a SELL on Shares only.
IV is not tempting enough at present as the Bond Bid has
been absent - today's 8AM EST resolution will provide far
more information for the larger trade here.
BUlls are eyeing the large Gaps overhead, believing they
are next.
We're not convinced they are correct, the 172s are a
which Implies Extreme Negative Returns.
Perpetual Bonds is al 007s will Clip while watching the
Capital Dissolve over time.
To each their very own.
TLT NEW BULL WAVE HAS STARTED 150 AREA CYCLE LOW IN TLT . I am now very bullish the TLT long side into nov 22 to dec 10 . My forecast for the 10 yr to see 1.62 . was seen I took profits and told traders to exit now .We now have a clear wave structure in TLT for a wave abc down for wave B low . this could be why I have the sp 500 ready to crash into a mini panic into its cycle low due oct 18th . BUT for now I would only be on the long side of TLT . I am now long a 50% at 143 and will add on a buy stop at 145.10 25% . We also saw the low hit right on the bottom of the Bollinger Bands best of trades WAVETIMER
TLT - Breaking 140.67 on ToothlessWill end badly for the 007s as it can follow ZN back to the 2021 Lows.
We will likely see yet another G A P this morning as ZN appears to be
hunting the 129s with SELLERS very active Friday.
Simply an amazing turn of events... 99% did not see coming.
We did and profited in the Extreme.
When "Assured" gains are the Dogma - duck duck go.
Next up on the Poo Poo Platter... BitCON as Gensler and Biden
are making it clear, large changes to the Long CON are unfolding.
Wall Street simply wants their Fill, so do we.