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TLT trade ideas

$QQQ Institutional VPOC buy area while $TLT bonds selloff $QQQ has found support at VPOC area where the indicator shows us heavy accumulation of buyers on the given range. Also note the trendline support it is respecting. $TLT given the fears of inflation and the Federal Reserve hinting at raising rates, bonds continue to sell off in an environment that remains RISK ON. As Job numbers continue to grow in a strengthening economy, we want to look for slow growth in employment numbers in order to remain bullish on QQQ. A blowout in job numbers can seem bullish to the retail eye, but this is when the Federal Reserve will most likely raise rates and surprise the market. Would not be the first time the Fed surprises; back in 2011 the entire market was pricing in a taper but the Fed came out saying they will continue Quantitative Easing which sent shorts running to cover. $TLT technicals point bearish with a breakdown from a rising wedge and a bearish MacD The only Bullish scenario for TLT would be if Powell decides to bring rates into the negative which would send the financial sector into a free fall. - Daniel Betancourt, OptionsSwing Analyst
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by optionsswing
20
$TLT - Michael Burry's bet on inflationAs many traders have been made aware due to the 13F filings, Michael Burry is short on a lot of things. With over half of a billion dollars in TSLA puts, one might assume he wants the EV manufacturer burn but there's more to it than just that. Over 2020, to stimulate growth in the market and in the economy, the fed dropped interest rates to 0. While they didn't stay at 0 for long, the low rates were incredibly bullish for these growth centric companies. Think TSLA, ROKU, SQ, ZM, Cathie Wood, etc. Companies that are traditionally very OVER valued when looking at their P/E. These low rates enabled investors to price in years and years of growth ahead of schedule. Now, in 2021 the headline of the year has been INFLATION. Everywhere you look you see tech (with their inflated P/E ratios) crumbling, value stocks climbing, fear of dollars becoming worthless and pouring into commodities whether that's oil, lumber, crypto or metals. Michael Burry's true portfolio is not one directed at Tesla specifically, but one betting on inflation to catch up with us. While TSLA makes up a large portion of this position, he also has 170M in TLT puts and 55M in TBT Calls. Bringing his portfolio to a net position of roughly 760M in derivatives betting on inflation. Most interesting to me anyways is the TLT position. TLT runs inverse of the 10 and 30 year bonds. Last year as rates went to 0 to encourage spending, TLT shot up 18% in a week. This current climate of near 0 rates are fantastic for financing (because if you can lock in a 30yr mortgage for 3% and inflation is 3%, that's essentially borrowing money for free. For 30 years. While an asset appreciates), but the spending is not beneficial for the valuation of the dollar. As of December 2020, nearly 35% of all US dollars in existence were printed in the 10 months prior. There are two ways in which a functioning market would pay for this, one would be increased taxes which have been proposed but not passed. The other is through inflation devaluing dollars and increasing relative cost of goods. The latter is much more expensive but generally goes under the radar. At some point the Federal Reserve will need to SLOW DOWN the the economy. The most likely way for this to happen is to raise interest rates making borrowing money more expensive. From a technical point of view the US 10 year bond is bull flagging on a larger time frame, this is probably the most consistent bullish pattern and is line with the point of view of the Federal Reserve raising rates ahead of schedule. Conversely, TLT is bear flagging on the weekly, so there's no divergence there which is great for Michael Burry's analysis. In addition to TLT's bear flag, it's on the verge of breaking below a decade long support line it's followed and is on it's 200 day moving average. Jerome Powell has stayed true to his word thus far and has, honestly, done quite well in keeping the market afloat and strong over the last 14 months or so. The real question is whether or not he was wrong in his assumption that rates can stay low for as long as he's promised and if inflation is truly under their control. Warwick, OptionsSwing Analyst
NASDAQ:TLTShort
by optionsswing
38
Rolling (IRA): TLT July 144 Covered Calls to August 143... for an .80/contract credit. Notes: With the 144's at 50% max, rolling out and down to the 28 delta strike in August. Total credits collected of 7.93/contract (See Post Below) versus a short call value of 1.61 = realized gain of 6.32 so far. I last acquired at around 110/share, so am fine here with being called away (even though I don't think that's going to happen). Similarly, I'm fine with collecting short call premium + the dividends, which are nothing to write home about -- the May 3rd dividend was a whopping $20.31 per one lot.
NASDAQ:TLT
by NaughtyPines
TLT is about to resume the down-trendDown-trend on TLT is about to resume with a target around 122, so I am excepting long side of a yield curve to go event further up and eventually exceed 3%. I like Lacy Hunt's arguments for deflation/not inflation in the long term. But as he also mentioned, it is a norm at the moment to expect a short term inflation pressure. I believe a 5 wave structure is unwinding since 5th of April, 2020 on TLT chart, with 4th wave potentially just completed. Wave 2 had triangle structure, so wave 4 is expected to form a zig-zag , exactly is it actually happened. So it is ready for the next move down towards 122. Watch TLT/JNK chart which I found very interesting, it gives an idea about a turning point when market is going to turn from risk to save assets. Most likely it will be in sync with completion of DXY correction (started in 2017), so both $ and bond will go up after then.
NASDAQ:TLTShort
by Kupitman
5
Treasury Bond ETF Smashes Into 50-day SMABonds have bounced in the last month, but now the bears may be coming back. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF jumped to its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) yesterday. It was the first test of the SMA since the beginning of the year. Second, TLT moves in the opposite direction as the CBOE 30-year Treasury Bond Yield Index (TYX). Yesterday it held an upward-sloping trendline that began on January 4. Also notice how a kicker candlestick pattern may be taking shape, with a quick bounce from the low: Finally, yesterdayโ€™s data could favor more downside in TLT because initial jobless claims, retail sales and Fed surveys suggested the economy is rebounding sharply. The numbers were so strong that the Atlanta Fedโ€™s GDPNow estimate for Q1 growth was revised up from 6.2 percent to 8.3 percent. TradeStation is a pioneer in the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more.
NASDAQ:TLT
by TradeStation
6
TLT Best buy for at least one yearThis chart shows a very clear and strong trend on TLT on a multi-year basis. Every time the price hits the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level (1W time-frame), it finds a long-term Support and rises. This is accompanied by a MACD Bullish Cross. See who the Channel's Fibs are also playing their role as Supports. Can this be the new long-term Support in TLT's attempt to break above the 1.5 extension? ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- !! Donations via TradingView coins also help me a great deal at posting more free trading content and signals here !! ๐ŸŽ‰ ๐Ÿ‘ Shout-out to TradingShot's ๐Ÿ’ฐ top TradingView Coin donor ๐Ÿ’ฐ this week ==> hujianghua --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by TradingShot
2