TLT/JNK Ratio vs SPX. Sell in May and go awayStrong correlation between 20 yr bond and high yield junk bonds.
market tends to enter volatility when this ratio bottoms/breaks out
TLT trade ideas
Castle Van Metre at the battle of RagnarokCastle Van Metre at the battle of Ragnarok.
80 year bond cycle nearing cataclysmic end. God King Steven Van Metre fighting the wolf of Fenrir, The Fedcoin (electronic cash debt free currency) and the forces of Niflheim at the last battle.
$TLT RSI divergenceAn interesting RSI divergence has occurred in $TLT. This could be pointing to further short term gains in $TLT.
TLT long explanation on my last videohere is more explanation of my last video that why we have 3 targets based on elliot waves. there are 3 elliot waves from small to big picture that gives us some classics theoretical targets.
does it mean we will reach all of them?
does we even pass them?
or we reject from here again?
all possible!!! if you are a trader more than even 1yr you know that ALL POSSIBLE! just trade based on your strategy, open point, risk/reward ratio, SL and TP.
Possible long TLT from 135$Possible long TLT and bottom. RSI super oversold on (D) even 17. Everybody is record short $$$ and record short UST and long reflationary trend and inflation. It's not constant, time for some deflationary move and flip. Sustained break and closed on weekly below 134$ gives us a right to claim TLT will drop further to 118-120$ to lower channel.
TLTGold follows, cci gave the signal with double top. Macz ready to turn, # fed members talk this week to put out fires
TLT longI am just consistence with my strategy and share what I see. time to buy short term-term call (1-2month) with delta above 0.85. TLT right now $133.25. Then need confirmation on weekly candle to open longterm call as well. Will come back to this chart in 1month,2month,6months and then Jan 22
TLT more depth on my last graphto see better. impulse pattern to me . fibs and fork are clear as well. classic fib 61.8% ? maybe soon to say but this is a pattern I see have more chance so far.
Don't fight the FED!Follow policy.
If you need to buy - wait for deep pull backs
If you want to short - sell on rallies.
...But don't fight the FED!
Weekly $TLT Most Oversold.... EVER!We are watching a capitulation of long dated bonds in real time. Today's huge gap down of -2% breaking last week's lows is actually perfectly in line with TLT seasonality for the past 16 years. This is no coincidence as the March 2009 - March 2010 sequence in bonds is very similar to the March 2020 - March 2021 sequence. The Q1 FOMC in the 3rd week is usually a catalyst to reverse the sentiment in bonds. This extra gap down near the statistical low for the *Entire Year* is a true gift. When bonds recover, expect a huge buy cycle back into beaten down tech/growth stocks.
A big clue today was Gold. It tracked 30Y bonds (ZB Futures) overnight down, but reversed hard with the Euro off supports. Normally, if TLT was down -2% at the USA open gold would be crushed, but it did the exact opposite. Something is off with long dated bonds and I feel this will be quickly resolved with the FOMC catalyst next week.
Join in this great trade!
TLT Seasonality for the previous 16 years - There are no coincidences!
$TLT Daily$TLT entering nice supply zone here, with solid support at 134. Lot of call sweeps hit the tape today for 140 calls 6/18. This is getting very close to a bottom, which obviously would not be good for equities. Keep an eye on this one. I would sell some puts at these levels or buy 140 calls 6/18 exp.
TLT long both fundamentali and technicaliTLT looks a good call for Jan 2022 both fundamentali and technicali. will go back to this chart on Jan 22.
TLT monthly study - down 20% and more through 2021This study compares current peak with peaks in 2012 and 2016. If history repeats, TLT is heading down from now through 2021, and bottom around Feb 2022.
TLT Is the Most Important Chart To Watch This Week.This month is an incredibly crucial week for TLT and can be a telling signal about the overall market.
Fundamental Analysis:
TLT is approaching the highs it made in August 2019. If TLT is considered a proxy for "risk-off" behavior. Do you think our economic landscape is as, "risk-off" as it was in August 2019?
Short Duration Treasury Bills are approaching negative yields. At Treasury Notes/Bill Auctions, more and more primary dealers are bidding 0%. Long Term Rates will always follow short term rate. Low Short Term Treasury Yields signify that dealers are willing it buy these assets at expensive prices, the buyers don't care about the yield. When Short Term Yields go negative which is very possible, this will cause a domino effect that will cause a major decline in the longer duration bond yields. Primary dealers will bid lower yields on longer-term bonds because it will be a cheaper alternative than buying short-term bills with at zero or negative yields. I guess the main question to ask yourself is: Why are Short Term Yields plastered to zero? If the stock market enters into a "Super Bubble" phase I would expect TLT to fall been lower to 130. But I am mostly convinced that this is a bottom in TLT.
Technical Analysis
1. Bullish Consildation
2. Declining Volume
3. Near 0.5 retracement area
4. Selling Volume Exhausted
5. Bullish RSI Divergence
6. Possible ABCD harmonic
7. Support at 145
8. Has touched bottom of Bollinger Band. (Not Shown) *Use any Mean Reversion TA tool it will show you this is oversold on Daily timeframe.
9. Cyclic RSI shows price is at a very low level relative to past prices.
Rolling (IRA): TLT May 21st 148 to June 21st 145 Covered Calls... for a .92/contract credit.
Notes: A continuation of my TLT covered calls. (See Post Below). With the May 21st 148's at greater than 50% max, rolled out to the June 145's. Total credits collected of 6.42/contract with the June 21st 145's currently valued at around 1.60/contract, so I've realized gains of around 4.82/contract on the call side so far this year. With a cost basis of sub-110 (the last time I acquired), I remain fine with either being called away or continuing to work covered calls.
My natural preference would be for the underlying to settle so that I wasn't constantly chasing calls down the ladder, but you can't have everything.
20 year bonds vs silver weekly ratio chartCurrently refueling tank. Next important move right around the corner!
even though they stink, can treasuries have a place as a safety?Im not a fan, but banks are! will they bounce in the next sell off as a hideout?
TLT LongBreakaway Gap
Possible Double Bottom
Demand zone Confirmation
Entry 139
Stop 135
Target 1
I am not a PRO trader. I trade option to test my trading plan with small cost.
The max Risk of each plan is less than 1% of my account.
If you like this idea, please use SIM/Demo account to try it.
Bond bull, bear gold and stocksTLT has been accumulating for the past 17 years it's about to go into it's biggest bull market!!! IMO
