When Commodity Trading Advisors Short Treasuries, You Short TooKeep shorting this junk. Inflation is here whether you like it or not.
TLT trade ideas
TLTHaving fun yet? I'm not even going to act like I know what's going to happen next. But I am in some May calls. Support is holding and today felt like a blow off top in rates. We'll see what happens tomorrow.
Parabolic Up Move In TLT?At this point charting does not matter so much with the algo pushing Bonds down in that after hours. At some point the algo will beed to rewind their position and go Long. It might take a sell off in the Equity market to cause a rotation into Bonds to force a Short squeeze.
TLT should see some buying soonThe 20y bond sell off has dropped into support. We should see some buying here to bring yields back down. If the buying comes in the market should bounce. If however this 618 level does not hold and bonds continue to sell off things could get ugly. Important level to watch IMO.
Bond yields have lost critical supportYields spiked past their March 2020 highs overnight. (This chart is inverted). Many believe this will be a sign of hyperinflation. To me, it is a sign that the FED has been amputated of its second last magic power (ie. moving to negative rates) and therefore they are losing control of the financial markets. If they want to keep this shenanigan going, they likely have one final weapon in their arsenal which is to buy up stocks *directly*. Such a move would have huge socio-economic and political ramifications. So, will they do it? Or will they finally let mother nature take its course and restore balance to this mangled beast we still call a stock market?
With respect to the question of hyperinflation, I agree that it will hit hard, but *only* the essentials of life: core inflation. In general, we will remain in a deflationary environment until all the bandages unravel one day and the whole system resets to heal itself from the bones out.
TLTLow risk entry here with a stop under $139 (March 2020 low). I'm long and looking to add tomorrow at any price under today's close.
Swing Treasuries Up? A Contrarian TradeI like the gap down and reversal in today's candle along with this happening at the 5% lower envelope like back in June 2020. Betting long term interest rates cool off a little here. It's a ballsy play from the prior downard movement but I like the risk to reward setup.
TLT - Fed Action SensitivityRed Lines denote hikes, Blue lines denote cuts.
What will we hear on YCC? Will it induce a bond squeeze?
Bullish Garley PCZ At Support Above The 200 Week Moving AverageTLT has hit a significant support visible on both the weekly and the monthly at a 78.6% Fibonacci Retrace from the previous low to high. I will expect to see TLT attempt a Bullish Reversal from the horizontal support zone i have highlighted in green. If we get any significant movement below the 200 week moving average then i would exit the trade. As for profit taking levels, i would take some profit once we near the last high and hold the rest as i believe we could go much higher.
BEST INDICATOR FOR TLT: When to build positionsWe have here a chart of a TLT with a comparison line of the ZN1!/ZB1!. What I have found is that when the ZN1!/ZB1! ratio hits a resistance level, TLT is also nearing it's bottom. I encourage you to look at the ZN1!/ZB1! separately. Recently, TLT has reversed with strength to the upside once these resistance levels are in range.
$TLT Craters on Big Economic ExpectationsTLT starts to crater as economic expectations pick up steam ahead of vaccine-induced herd immunity. Fund managers hit record bullish levels according to key surveys, juicing inflation expectations.
TLT breaks supportI've been watching this zone for a while as very significant support. Could see an outsized move down. I'm unsure about the impact on stocks at this point. Many would say it is great news as it confirms money moving into stocks. I personally feel its a good sign as long as the move down is slow and controlled as we do not want to see a rapid rise in bond yields. See previous post.
Bond Meltup IncomingInterest rates are going to continue to move up to help drain the excess liquidity in the system. TGA will spend the last of its money in the form of a stimulus package, then we will see a great reversal on the dollar and interest rates, as cashflow continues to dry up, banks too scared to loan to each other (and therefore not make consumer and commercial loans), and money continues to move from consumerism to savings accounts. Put simply, illiquidity in the system, and raising interest rates will lead to a smackdown to near-zero again, maybe even negative, to prevent a major shock to the system.
Looking to buy more TLT dips this year. I think the meltup will begin with bank insolvency.
TLT LongIn downtrend Channel,
Demand Zone below Sideway consolidation
Entry 149
Stop 145
Target 162
I am not a PRO trader. I trade option to test my trading plan with small cost.
The max Risk of each plan is less than 1% of my account.
If you like this idea, pleas
