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Ishares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFIshares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFIshares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF

Ishares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF

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TLT trade ideas

USG bond ETF $TLT options, inspired by CryptoHayesHello. This is my overnight setup for the weekend. I wanted to hold short or open long equities rather than bonds but it's not feasible at the moment. Unfortunately this is posted after market close, but will serve as a journal for how poorly/fantastically I play it. A funky strangle, with a 1:1:1 ratio: Mar 19 +140C @ 0.65 Mar 19 +135P @ 1.45 Apr 16 +100P @ 0.07 Profit zone: ~$133 > x < ~$141 What I am planning: For TLT to rise rapidly and CryptoHayes to be wrong, letting me roll/close in profit, covering the initial costs of all 3 positions along with profit. This is why i decided to buy the calls closer to the money. If I am wrong on Monday's directional close, I will likely close all 3 positions and take the loss. The expiries are not good. Mistakes I can point out immediately: I've chosen options too close to expiry I expect movement and have not hedged for no mvement I may have opened too early just to have a position open Personal consumption is on the rise, and that may lead to inflation Reason for the Mar 19 140C call: I am very bullish on bonds due to recent news. Stimulus, taxes confirmed not to be reduced. You've got to be mental to think the USG would want to raise rates. Though consumer spending is almost back to previous highs... Reason for Mar 19 135P: Maybe it'll go down now. Reflation due to easing of Covid lockdowns. Reason for Apr 16 100P: I'm certain this is not how you do it, but it's my "tail risk", cheap hedge in case yield hell breaks loose. Better picture because the preview is missing some items: % Compare of TLT and 30 year yield Personal Consumption What's CryptoHayes would have instead recommended: go ape mode on bitcoin, ape mode hedge on bond yields.
NASDAQ:TLT
by NeoButane
5
TLT rocket ready for Powell's launch sequenceWhile the bond market blood bath may scare some, I believe it is an opportunity to catch a fly with chopsticks Mr. Miagi style. The narrative that bonds are selling off because of inflation fears is oversold hype and Guggenheim's CIO Scott Minerd and PIMCO's head of short-term management Jerome Schnieder agree. www.guggenheiminvestments.com www.youtube.com Inflation is transient and with a liquidity supernova descending upon the markets, this will push short-term rates down leaving fixed-income investors chasing long-term (duration) bonds. The Fed itself will likely introduce some type of Twist style program expanding purchases of duration bonds. Add in the upcoming SLR exemption expiration and the historical long-term trend in the decline in the US10Y and the case for lower rates becomes very sexy. Yellen is going to be dumping $1.1T into money markets. www.bloomberg.com SLR exclusion exemption may not be extended. Democrats are demanding higher banking restrictions. No SLR extension creates a bottleneck for O/N repos and warehousing. www.ft.com There is also a strong technical case as it is oversold and we've had a very bullish engulfing reversal candle. This looks primed to explode any day now. Additionally, the US10Y looks overbought with the classic evening star doji. Minerd believes rates US10Y will hit -.5% by 2022. While I think that is a little on the extreme end of the range, I do believe 1.15% to 1.25% in the near term is realistic with .5%. Disclaimer: At the time of writing I do hold longer-dated expiry ITM TLT calls.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by StockSniper00
5
20 Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT): Price direction estimates.My views what is happening in the bond market, what to look out for in the coming trading session The 20 year Treasury Bond prices fell below the long-term price channel in the H4 price chart at around 147.40 support level on Feb 13, 2021, and recently bounced off 137.40 on Feb 26, 2021, indicated on the chart below, the same day we saw the sell-off and drop-in the stock market. The closing price of the bond market Friday's session was just below 142.40, a critical level tested in the past and could be tested in future trades. The last H4 price candle closed in red, but relatively small compared to the previous H4 bull candle with a reasonable volume which indicates buyers are still holding on from the bounce we saw at 137.40 and 139.90. I think 142.40 and 141.40 support lines are important if it's going to continue up. If it holds above 142.40, we could be looking at retesting the 144.90 resistance line at the bottom of the price channel and 146.40/147.40. If it fails to get back above 142.40, 139.90 and 137.40 could be a potential support area.
NASDAQ:TLT
by Rotuma
2
US Equity Market could bottom out soonTLT From a post view to analyze the market these days, "everybody" knows from the media that the reason is "fear of hyperinflation" But how much inflation is high enough and when does this correction ends? jump into my conclusion : the correction is ending soon. Why? there are 5 reasons to look for : 1 correction was triggered by diving T-note, looking at TLT, since the broke out from a 2B at early Feb, it accelerated, but approaching pre-pandenmic level. 2 raw material price on the massive run since last year, Copper and Crude oil had their times, but is approaching previous resistance 3 looking at nasdaq, 2Hr and 4Hr had made new lows but with MACD divergence 4 catalyst could be the freezing weather that send crude to the sky and the priced in stim bill, with dead line approaching, there still a big uncertainty in this, so could triggers some risk aversion 5 Nasdaq is approaching 12/18 quad witching support
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by JasontryHarder
2
Bond yields have lost critical supportYields spiked past their March 2020 highs overnight. (This chart is inverted). Many believe this will be a sign of hyperinflation. To me, it is a sign that the FED has been amputated of its second last magic power (ie. moving to negative rates) and therefore they are losing control of the financial markets. If they want to keep this shenanigan going, they likely have one final weapon in their arsenal which is to buy up stocks *directly*. Such a move would have huge socio-economic and political ramifications. So, will they do it? Or will they finally let mother nature take its course and restore balance to this mangled beast we still call a stock market? With respect to the question of hyperinflation, I agree that it will hit hard, but *only* the essentials of life: core inflation. In general, we will remain in a deflationary environment until all the bandages unravel one day and the whole system resets to heal itself from the bones out.
NASDAQ:TLTShort
by supere
5