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TLT trade ideas

Weekly $TLT Most Oversold.... EVER!We are watching a capitulation of long dated bonds in real time. Today's huge gap down of -2% breaking last week's lows is actually perfectly in line with TLT seasonality for the past 16 years. This is no coincidence as the March 2009 - March 2010 sequence in bonds is very similar to the March 2020 - March 2021 sequence. The Q1 FOMC in the 3rd week is usually a catalyst to reverse the sentiment in bonds. This extra gap down near the statistical low for the *Entire Year* is a true gift. When bonds recover, expect a huge buy cycle back into beaten down tech/growth stocks. A big clue today was Gold. It tracked 30Y bonds (ZB Futures) overnight down, but reversed hard with the Euro off supports. Normally, if TLT was down -2% at the USA open gold would be crushed, but it did the exact opposite. Something is off with long dated bonds and I feel this will be quickly resolved with the FOMC catalyst next week. Join in this great trade! TLT Seasonality for the previous 16 years - There are no coincidences!
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by mortdiggiddy
85
TLT Is the Most Important Chart To Watch This Week.This month is an incredibly crucial week for TLT and can be a telling signal about the overall market. Fundamental Analysis: TLT is approaching the highs it made in August 2019. If TLT is considered a proxy for "risk-off" behavior. Do you think our economic landscape is as, "risk-off" as it was in August 2019? Short Duration Treasury Bills are approaching negative yields. At Treasury Notes/Bill Auctions, more and more primary dealers are bidding 0%. Long Term Rates will always follow short term rate. Low Short Term Treasury Yields signify that dealers are willing it buy these assets at expensive prices, the buyers don't care about the yield. When Short Term Yields go negative which is very possible, this will cause a domino effect that will cause a major decline in the longer duration bond yields. Primary dealers will bid lower yields on longer-term bonds because it will be a cheaper alternative than buying short-term bills with at zero or negative yields. I guess the main question to ask yourself is: Why are Short Term Yields plastered to zero? If the stock market enters into a "Super Bubble" phase I would expect TLT to fall been lower to 130. But I am mostly convinced that this is a bottom in TLT. Technical Analysis 1. Bullish Consildation 2. Declining Volume 3. Near 0.5 retracement area 4. Selling Volume Exhausted 5. Bullish RSI Divergence 6. Possible ABCD harmonic 7. Support at 145 8. Has touched bottom of Bollinger Band. (Not Shown) *Use any Mean Reversion TA tool it will show you this is oversold on Daily timeframe. 9. Cyclic RSI shows price is at a very low level relative to past prices.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by arama-nuggetrouble
5
Rolling (IRA): TLT May 21st 148 to June 21st 145 Covered Calls... for a .92/contract credit. Notes: A continuation of my TLT covered calls. (See Post Below). With the May 21st 148's at greater than 50% max, rolled out to the June 145's. Total credits collected of 6.42/contract with the June 21st 145's currently valued at around 1.60/contract, so I've realized gains of around 4.82/contract on the call side so far this year. With a cost basis of sub-110 (the last time I acquired), I remain fine with either being called away or continuing to work covered calls. My natural preference would be for the underlying to settle so that I wasn't constantly chasing calls down the ladder, but you can't have everything.
NASDAQ:TLT
by NaughtyPines
USG bond ETF $TLT options, inspired by CryptoHayesHello. This is my overnight setup for the weekend. I wanted to hold short or open long equities rather than bonds but it's not feasible at the moment. Unfortunately this is posted after market close, but will serve as a journal for how poorly/fantastically I play it. A funky strangle, with a 1:1:1 ratio: Mar 19 +140C @ 0.65 Mar 19 +135P @ 1.45 Apr 16 +100P @ 0.07 Profit zone: ~$133 > x < ~$141 What I am planning: For TLT to rise rapidly and CryptoHayes to be wrong, letting me roll/close in profit, covering the initial costs of all 3 positions along with profit. This is why i decided to buy the calls closer to the money. If I am wrong on Monday's directional close, I will likely close all 3 positions and take the loss. The expiries are not good. Mistakes I can point out immediately: I've chosen options too close to expiry I expect movement and have not hedged for no mvement I may have opened too early just to have a position open Personal consumption is on the rise, and that may lead to inflation Reason for the Mar 19 140C call: I am very bullish on bonds due to recent news. Stimulus, taxes confirmed not to be reduced. You've got to be mental to think the USG would want to raise rates. Though consumer spending is almost back to previous highs... Reason for Mar 19 135P: Maybe it'll go down now. Reflation due to easing of Covid lockdowns. Reason for Apr 16 100P: I'm certain this is not how you do it, but it's my "tail risk", cheap hedge in case yield hell breaks loose. Better picture because the preview is missing some items: % Compare of TLT and 30 year yield Personal Consumption What's CryptoHayes would have instead recommended: go ape mode on bitcoin, ape mode hedge on bond yields.
NASDAQ:TLT
by NeoButane
5
TLT rocket ready for Powell's launch sequenceWhile the bond market blood bath may scare some, I believe it is an opportunity to catch a fly with chopsticks Mr. Miagi style. The narrative that bonds are selling off because of inflation fears is oversold hype and Guggenheim's CIO Scott Minerd and PIMCO's head of short-term management Jerome Schnieder agree. www.guggenheiminvestments.com www.youtube.com Inflation is transient and with a liquidity supernova descending upon the markets, this will push short-term rates down leaving fixed-income investors chasing long-term (duration) bonds. The Fed itself will likely introduce some type of Twist style program expanding purchases of duration bonds. Add in the upcoming SLR exemption expiration and the historical long-term trend in the decline in the US10Y and the case for lower rates becomes very sexy. Yellen is going to be dumping $1.1T into money markets. www.bloomberg.com SLR exclusion exemption may not be extended. Democrats are demanding higher banking restrictions. No SLR extension creates a bottleneck for O/N repos and warehousing. www.ft.com There is also a strong technical case as it is oversold and we've had a very bullish engulfing reversal candle. This looks primed to explode any day now. Additionally, the US10Y looks overbought with the classic evening star doji. Minerd believes rates US10Y will hit -.5% by 2022. While I think that is a little on the extreme end of the range, I do believe 1.15% to 1.25% in the near term is realistic with .5%. Disclaimer: At the time of writing I do hold longer-dated expiry ITM TLT calls.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by StockSniper00
5
20 Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT): Price direction estimates.My views what is happening in the bond market, what to look out for in the coming trading session The 20 year Treasury Bond prices fell below the long-term price channel in the H4 price chart at around 147.40 support level on Feb 13, 2021, and recently bounced off 137.40 on Feb 26, 2021, indicated on the chart below, the same day we saw the sell-off and drop-in the stock market. The closing price of the bond market Friday's session was just below 142.40, a critical level tested in the past and could be tested in future trades. The last H4 price candle closed in red, but relatively small compared to the previous H4 bull candle with a reasonable volume which indicates buyers are still holding on from the bounce we saw at 137.40 and 139.90. I think 142.40 and 141.40 support lines are important if it's going to continue up. If it holds above 142.40, we could be looking at retesting the 144.90 resistance line at the bottom of the price channel and 146.40/147.40. If it fails to get back above 142.40, 139.90 and 137.40 could be a potential support area.
NASDAQ:TLT
by Rotuma
2