TLT trade ideas
Bonds Remain in a Bearish ChannelEarlier this month, the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF had a “ death cross .” It proceeded downward as expected after that signal, only to rebound. This creates the potential for another continuation trade to the downside.
Today’s idea highlights two other features on TLT’s daily chart. First is the descending price channel in place since the beginning of September. This is the same period that the Nasdaq-100 started lagging and sentiment shifted toward cyclical recovery stocks. November's jump in value stocks was a step further in the same direction.
Next, stochastics show TLT being overbought following the recent bounce.
Finally, the most important chart for TLT could very well be oil. Black gold is on pace today for its highest close since its March 9 gap down. Further gains in crude will lift inflation expectations and bond yields, likely putting more pressure on TLT.
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Investors are bullish on US TreasuriesThe tide in the $20 trillion Treasury market appears to be turning in favor of the bulls for now, with expectations growing that the Fed will boost purchases of longer-maturity debt as soon as next month after Mnuchin requested the FED to return the money set aside for lending programs in the US.
This implies we could see a weak US Dollar moving forward. However the pandemic situation could keep investors uneasy for now.
A September 2020 pivot Low stands between the currency's next level of major support zone at 88.2xx.
I'll take this play from a Commodities and Emerging Markets currencies perspective.
Silver is an interesting precious metal that could see this year's pivot high breached to the upside with a $34.xx being a possible target 🎯 for 2021.
The USDSGD is in play to breach a storng level of support that held the price twice in both January 2019 and January 2020. If the monthly candle closes below this area, it's next support 🎯 will be around the 1.30xx - 1.31xx supply area.
TLT Divergence (that is coming through)A few days ago I pointed out the bullish divergence in with relative strength and price in TLT. This time it is working out. No position for me, yet. But it is something I dont usually trade, but I do monitor.
TLT Divergence.Positive divergence occurring on the Daily chart on TLT. Move higher coming for TLT in the near-term? Fuck if I know.
TLT/Bond Entry for Hedge Against Stock MarketHedge against stock market. Setup has Risk/Reward Ratio of: 6 to first price target and 16 to second target. Recommended to take profit and raise stop along the way.
Bullish Descending Wedge TLTTLT has consolidated nicely since its massive spike during covid. The rsi has also consolidated well. Watching for price to break the wedge. Last time it did so before covid there was a melt up just before launch PT 's are marked on FIBS. Watching for the $200 high to break if we get momentum. Great idea for a portfolio hedge.
TLT Bonds Bear Gang let’s go! Hopefully we break the uptrend
Follow the bearish triangle pattern and he tremendous bearish fractaloid instead of the channel!
Let’s do it bears!
#nasdaq35000
10yr bonds look weak. possible double topbonds have been terrible for a while now, not sure if this is going to start affecting equities. needs to bounce at these levels or the stock market probably will start going down.
big breakdown if rising wedge is broken downwards. in the case of loss of the DT confirmation line, it's decidedly bearish.
buy bitcoin.
TLT: POSSIBLE SET-UPTLT is a good SAFE HAVEN bond ETF, now PRICED at a Discount.
PLEASE DECIDE for yourself if TLT works with your INVESTMENT STRATEGY
Death Cross in BondsBonds have drifted lower since the start of August. There could now be signs of acceleration.
One important feature on the IShares 20+ Year Bond ETF is the declining 50-day simple moving, now on the verge on the crossing under the 200-day SMA. A “Death Cross.”
Next is the downward channel in place since early September. TLT failed at the top line yesterday and is just coming off it today.
Third is the double-top around $172 between late April and early August. This followed a blow-off spike in early March that’s never been regained. Viewed together, this kind of price action suggests a potentially major long-term top.
Bonds have benefited from this year’s coronavirus pandemic. But how long will that support remain? Monday's ISM manufacturing report and today’s non-farm payrolls showed the economy is improving. The election might not be resolved yet, but fiscal stimulus grows more likely the closer we get to January. Those trends would argue in favor of higher yields and lower prices.
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TLT Trade Update, Wave Y Rebound Updates on existing long position on Bonds. TLT contracting triangle pattern is setting up for a terminal move into wave (C) targeting the 170-175 range. Wave count invalidation at 151.90
Bullish Gartley Pattern X5Possible stop below 156.7
Possible T2 180.9 to 197.6
Not a recommendation
"The rearview mirror is always clearer than the windshield" (o:
