TLT to $90 by 3/22/2024TLT hit resistance at its' 03/2023 weekly channel and its' 12/23/2023 daily channel and is likely to move down to $90 per share by 03/22/2024.
TLT trade ideas
$TLT an Underdog StoryIf it was Rocky Balboa vs the NASDAQ:TLT I'd take the TLT every time..
Not only is TLT Bull Flagging on the dominant chat, it also formed a mean double bottom.
Combined with the divergent and imminent positive crossing on the CCI, i'd say we have one hell of a breakout on our hands Coming Soon™
Hidden Bullish Signals Detected Ahead of US Inflation ReportTomorrow it's time again: The US inflation data will be released. Over the past two years, the significance of this report has increased significantly, as it allows conclusions to be drawn about the future monetary policy of the Fed. Accordingly, the monthly event is associated with a lot of volatility, comparable to that seen when the labor market data is released - at least. A look at the 10-year government bonds gives us an idea of how the data will turn out and, in particular, how the market will react to it. Initially, from a chart technical perspective, we see a clear hidden bullish divergence between price and the VOLD indicator. This divergence is most pronounced on the M30 chart, allowing for conclusions about price movements within the next few days, roughly until the end of the week. A look at the put-call sentiment of the bond futures (ZNM24) also shows a very bearish assessment by investors - a signal that has repeatedly proven to be an excellent contrarian indicator. Therefore, we expect the bond price to be positively influenced by the upcoming data and accordingly, interest rates to decline. This, in turn, is bullish for the US stock markets. There are thus good reasons to be optimistic about the new week.
Bond outlook is improvingThis week the TLT long-term US Treasury bond ETF bounced from a key support level.
Meanwhile, the three-month rate of change on core PCE—the Fed's preferred inflation measure—dropped to 2.2%, near the Fed's 2% target. With a looming government shutdown, we're also seeing the first serious Congressional effort to impose fiscal discipline in a long time. Any serious spending reduction would be positive for US bonds.
I don't think the economy is in imminent trouble, so I don't expect bond prices to rapidly climb from here. But I do think the worst of the selloff is probably done and it's a decent time to lock in that ultra low-risk mid-4% return.
Are you ready for Bond ?We have seen how the interest rates increase has been affecting people with mortgages but in the equity/bond market, it also reflect a similar picture.
When interest rates go up, the bond prices fall. And you can see from chart, it has fallen close to 50% from the peak of 180 to 92 before it recovers recently to 106.
Now, if you believe my predictions that FED will start to reduce the interest rates next year, then we can see the bond prices returning back to its glorious days.
So, you can park a certain % of your portfolio funds to this Bond ETF if you like but imo, a large part of your investment capital should still be in equities. The percentage can differs as people believe in portfolio restructuring by different fund houses, etc.
TLT bull caseSame analysis as ZROZ same pattern possibly forming which again coincide roughly with fed decision timetable.
Cup and handle formation.
Could see and initial finalizing of the handle which would take us 7% by April.
Could see that giving us a bull run to end of May for a 20% total gain...
This is not financial advice... it's crystal ball territory. For an accurate future market prediction please immediately see a FNRA licensed qualified tarot reader.
TLT: Piercing Line on the Quarterly Chart Signaling Lower YieldsTLT (The 20-Year US Treasury Bond ETF) has recently completed the measured move of the Ascending Broadening Wedge Breakdown and has now confirmed a Piercing Line on the 3-Month Chart while closing above the 0.886 Retrace. We can also see that the RSI has begun to break out of its downtrend and these combinations of variables seem to point towards the TLT reversing the overall downtrend which could lead to a major move up towards the 50-61.8% retraces between $130 and $143 this would come with bond yields falling off significantly and may also be a sign of investors seeking safer investments over the coming months.
TLT Very close or already bottomedTLT in a fantastic zone here, with TD9 timing next week. Either bottoms here or one more low (even better RR)
Opening (IRA): TLT April 19th 90 Short Put... for a 1.10 credit.
Comments: Although I have a long-dated covered call on in TLT, starting to ladder out some short put at intervals that would result in an improvement of my cost basis in the covered call were I to be assigned shares.
Targeting the strike that's paying around 1% of the strike price in credit.
TLT long 85.8 add 82 can keep sl at 78 , inspired by a chart post I saw somewhere I love these the of set ups , catch a falling knife and put in in your socket and save it for a rainy day
Time to flip short $TLT againWe made good money shorting NASDAQ:TLT into the summer down to the initial target I had of $88. Then we flipped long again and I exited my longs earlier this month on Dec 7th. Now, as you can see from the first chart , we've come up against resistance and I think it's time to flip short again to retest the lows.
How low we go is TBD, but I think this move could go to at minimum $95 and at maximum retest, or barely sweep the lows.
I bought some puts yesterday with a strike of $97 for a few months out.
Note: There is a possibility that we get one more retest of the highs before it starts falling (if this happens, I'll add more to my position).
TLT → Strong downtrendNASDAQ:TLT remains in a strong bearish trend.
After breaking through the 93 zone, the bond price rose.
It has not been able to break the first resistance found in the 103.70 zone, and it has another more important resistance in the 110 level.
At the moment I am not going to buy long-term american bonds, and I am still invested in monetary asset investment funds with an average maturity of these assets of less than 90 days.
And what are american fund managers doing?
American fund managers are again massively accumulating short positions against the american bond.
TLT: Double Bottom at the 0.382 Retrace with Bullish DivergenceSome weeks ago TLT was trading within a Falling Wedge and Double Bottoming at the 0.382 with Bullish Divergence on the Hourly Timeframe and from there rallied to hit its 0.618 Profit Target. Since then, it has come back down just below the level it started at but in doing so has yet again formed Bullish Divergence near the 0.382, this time on higher timeframes. If the TLT were to start bottoming here, it would potentially be the start of an even bigger double bottom than the last one and could result in TLT testing even higher upside retraces such as the 0.886-1.13 which would take it to around $100
TLT is ready for upside moves once Fed rates start droppingTLT is ready for upside momentum once the Fed fund rates are expected to drop rates starting in 2nd Quarter of the year. S&P 500 is expected to take a down turn once the Fed pivot is triggered
TLT Long Treasury ETF- an options straddle idea TLT is here on a 15-minute chart. Price action is orderly and somewhat related to treasury yield
fluctuations and the value of the existing securities adjusting from those fluctuations. There is
adequate volatility. A straddle options strategy can be employed. Positions can be taken
in both directions. Depending on price action, one leg will rise and the other will fall. Overall
the trades make profit so long as there is volatility in one direction or the other. Additionally,
if the instrument is oversold and upward price action is more likely, the proportions between
the two legs can be skewed toward calls and vice-versa in overbought /overvalued scenarios.
Here in TLT, price is near to support and so relatively oversold. The hypothetical setup
is tipped in favor of the probabilities and expectations for a rise in TLT. Options can be OTM
or ITM depending on trader preference. In this example the calls selected are OTM at the level
of a Fibonacci retracement of the prior trend down and the puts selected are slight OTM at
the horizontal support level and the trade is skewed 70/30 ( by AMEX:USD ) toward the calls.
For a more astute explanation see the webpage from the link
TLT Long at VWAP Bounce T- Bills 20 yearsTLT on the 15 minute chart in the past two trading sessions consolidated and then fell into
a pullback to the support of the anchored mean VWAP. Relative volatility spiked and has
now contracted. I see this as a good entry to add to my TLT position having sold a good portion
of it three trading days ago when price showed topping wicks outside the fibonacci highest
band. This will be about $ 1.00 cheaper than before that sale and is part of a zig-zag
strategy for TLT overall.
TLT Bear Call on +1 sig test, Strike at +3Symbol TLT
Open Date 11/8/2023
Put or Call Call
Expiry Date 12/22/2023
Short Strike 95
Long Strike 97
Price to Open 0.24
Min Width Multiple 4
Risk Ratio 7.33
Return on Risk 13.6%
Opening DTE 44
1 Day ROI% 0.31%
Max Annual ROI % 113.1%
TLT sold yesterday early afternoon as it tested +1 sig on the Bearish 4h/Daily range.
Perfect textbook setup and entry execution for me.
I liked the flip of the price algo at VWAP and thought the relvance was good.
I chose the 95 strike back at +3 sig.
I always go with the highest relevance model because then I know what to do at different levels.
I'm only 50% on picking exact tops and bottoms at model levels, but I am 110% on predetermining and executing a plan at modeled levels.
TLT: Falling Wedge Double Bottom at .382 with Bullish DivergenceThe TLT looks like it's trying to form a Double Bottom at the 0.382 Fibonacci Retracement, it is also Bullishly Diverging at this level, if it holds up I think it could go up to as high as $96 near the 200-period Simple Moving Average which would also fill the gap. From there I'd think it could continue back down.
I will be selling weekly puts around the lower 90 strike and buying weekly calls at the same level.
TLT above $96 on Feb 9selling vertical puts at $96 spending $53 to make $47
alot of people talking about bonds these days
$TLT - 20 year US Treasury, possible support -I'm huge ultra BULLISH on US treasuries currently, so please excuse my bias.
Not in any specific order, however here are all the factors in this thesis...
1. Interest rates have dramatically increased since Jan 2021, and the overall bond market, including treasuries, had its worst 2 years on record, going back to 1915.
2. Since Nov 2022 just after Halloween, Jerome Powell, "top FED dude", has already said that interest will no longer get increased and that there's possibly three RATE CUTS this year 2024. Even if he said, "Rates will remain unchanged" is enough to make treasuries bounce back to even. (par value).
3. Looking at everything in Barron's most recent "Top Income Plays for 2024" from last week, US Treasuries now offer the most bang for buck interest rate 4.10% with the lowest risk, compared to every other income asset in that article. (i.e, Dividend stocks, muni bonds, REITS, preferred stocks, etc.,)
4. US treasuries are back by the full faith of the US Government.
5. There's now a website that tracks Congress women & men trades, capitol trades.com. And there's A LOT of them buying US Treasuries.
6. There's massive geopolitical risk right now and WW3 is now a word being used.
7. Bottomline: between the yield of +4% and the upside appreciation of treasuries being at the biggest discount in US History, I believe any pull back should bought.
8. COMPLIMENT OPTION STRATEGIES
A. You could buy 100 shares of TLT and the following are low risk option strategies to compliment your 100 shares of TLT.
i. Sell short term (30 days out) 1 call. If you buy 100 shares of TLT, then you can sell 1 covered call on TLT out of the money OTM, and take that premium and purchase another share of TLT. think "snow ball" effect. The strike I am selling on 1000 shares of TLT is Ten $98 strike TLT calls with 2/23 expiration. Then take that money and bought 10 additional shares of TLT.
ii. If you want to get fancy with this, you can also add to the above covered call BUY WRITE and do a VERTICAL PUT SPREAD, aka Credit Put Spread to add to the income (which adds to the "Income Snow Ball" of something that is appreciating. Mo Money Mo Money!
a. Sell $90 strike Put on TLT, 30 days out
b. Buy $87 stake Put on TLT,, same exp, to cover your short put.
c. This produces an extra $200 which you could spend on blow (or groceries) or you can buy 2 more shares of TLT. Weeeeeeeeeeeeee! thats capital generating income, that's generating income, being used to buy more of the thing that's appreciating in value, that's also generating income. THAT'S A LOT OF CHEDDAR!!
After one month, THEN REPEAT. :)
channel respectedIf this channel remains intact, and it has for a while now, TLT could be in the 70s by June 2024. That would put it on the center line of the channel.
Opening (IRA): TLT June 21st 86 Short Put... for a 1.00 credit.
Comments: Continuing to ladder out at strikes at or below the cost basis of my current, longer-dated covered call. Going out to June here, since I have "rungs" on in April and May already.
Bullish on US Bonds - Yields Will FallAfter the recent price declines, US bonds appear ready to resume their upward trend and recover. Now that the market has cleared liquidity on the sell side, there are clear signs of a bottom forming.
We therefore expect bond prices to rise significantly in the near future, which would also be positive for the equity indices.
The trading idea presented here offers a favorable risk/reward ratio of around 1.9:1.
