Tesla (TSLA) – Daily Chart AnalysisTechnical Landscape
Immediate Resistance:
Gap / Low Volume Zone: $288.14 – $338.79
0.236 Fibonacci retracement at ~$338.79
Major Resistance Above:
50% Retracement: ~$356.15
0.618 Fibonacci: ~$418.66
Key Support Levels:
$246.45 (recent structural low)
$220.48
$196.51
$180.80
Momentum Indicators
RSI
Currently rising and reclaiming the 50.00 level, a significant threshold.
Momentum profile closely mirrors the November 2024 recovery (highlighted with circle).
Prior surges from similar RSI+ structures led to multi-week uptrends.
Trend
Bullish crossover confirmed with expanding green histogram.
Momentum is accelerating out of a deeply oversold condition—similar to the late 2024 rally initiation.
Signal line separation is clear, suggesting short-term strength remains intact.
On Balance Volume
Just printed its first strong upturn in over two months.
The curve has transitioned from flat to rising, forming a mirror image of the reversal seen in November 2024.
While early, the formation suggests underlying accumulation and rotation back into strength.
Scenarios Based on Current Structure
Scenario 1: Bullish Continuation Through Gap Zone
Trigger: Break and hold above ~$288.14 (gap entry) with increasing volume and confirmation from RSI+ and WaveTrend.
Structure: Price accelerates into low-volume gap region, seeking fill up to ~$338.79.
Target 1: $338.79 (0.236 Fib)
Target 2: $356.15 (50% retracement)
Target 3: $418.66 (0.618 retracement)
Momentum Bias: All three indicators currently favor bullish continuation.
Scenario 2: Short-Term Rejection at Gap Resistance
Trigger: Price rejects within $288–$300 and fails to sustain above the low-volume node.
Price Response: Retests structural support near $246.45 or deeper at $220.48.
Setup: Look for RSI+ to lose the 50 level and WaveTrend to flatten or recross down.
Bias: Short-term corrective move, but still within a broader base-building structure.
Scenario 3: Breakdown Back Into Range
Trigger: A sharp reversal with high-volume rejection from the current rally leg, especially without full gap fill.
Confirmation: Indicators roll over—WaveTrend flips negative, Volume Buoyancy breaks down.
Target: $220.48 initially, then $196.51 and potentially $180.80 if broader market weakens.
Implication: Reclassifies price action as a failed relief rally, resuming prior downtrend.
Summary
Tesla is in the early stages of a potential trend reversal. The alignment of RSI+, WaveTrend 3D, and Volume Buoyancy with prior bottoming conditions suggests further upside is likely if the stock clears the low-volume region starting at ~$288. That said, this is a structurally thin area, and rejection within the gap could send price back to major support zones.
Volume will be key in validating breakout attempts. Should momentum fade and structural levels fail, the broader downtrend may reassert itself.
