TTWO trade ideas
TTWOThe TTWO stock shows strong indicators on the weekly and monthly timeframes, including moving averages and MACD. The stock has formed a triangle pattern on the daily chart, which has been activated with a breakout above the last high. Additionally, it's forming a descending channel on the weekly timeframe, and is currently near its upper boundary. We're preparing for a potential breakout.
There are two scenarios:
Enter directly with the breakout of the descending channel.
A weaker scenario: we wait for a possible pullback from the upper boundary of the channel to test the triangle's lower boundary, then enter a buy position with a stop loss placed below the triangle's last low.
Our price targets are between $17.90 - $179.90, with the possibility of exceeding this range to reach $189.22. It might extend further to $247. The stop loss is set at $145.
Still bullish and moving!After my first long trade hit its stop loss today, I opened a second trade at a slightly higher level (see chart image). All bullish indicators are in place—the SMAs are supporting the price movement, and a new local high was recently made, confirming bullish momentum.
I expect this stock to continue rising through the end of the year.
TTWO pullback to $165MODs have suggested that I provide more detail about the picks I make.
Sorry. I'm not as verbose as y'all, and I don't like things to be complicated.
My trading plan is very simple.
I buy or sell at top & bottom of parallel channels.
I confirm when price hits Fibonacci levels.
Bonus if a TTM Squeeze in in play.
I hold until target is reached or end of year, when I can book a loss.
So...
Here's why I'm picking this symbol to do the thing.
Price above channels (period 100 52 39 & 26)
Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) at overbought level
VBSM spiked positive
Price at 3.618 Fibonacci level
In at $176
Target is $165 or channel bottom
Stop loss is $178
TTWO heads up at $163: Major Hurdle to Break-n-Run or Pop-n-DropTTWO earnings popped it into a serious resistance.
Bulls should look for a Break-and-Retest entry here.
Bears should look for a Ping-Rejection to go short.
$ 177.21 - 178.53 is the resistance of concern.
$ 166.78 - 167.49 is the first support below.
$ 197.54 - 198.92 is the optimistic bull target.
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Take Two (TTWO) & ROCKSTARTakeTwo Intractive's costs are rising as fast as revenues, and the Zynga acquisition has yet to prove itself. Of course, GTA 6 is an excellent argument, but even this is not without risk; after all, it is not guaranteed that every new GTA is of the highest quality. Overall, it seems that an investment in the company is currently a pure bet on the massive success of GTA 6. But if that's the investment thesis, why invest now?
TakeTwo has an excellent reputation in the industry and trades with a premium valuation compared to the competition. But several points do not look entirely positive. Costs are rising as fast as revenues, and the Zynga acquisition has yet to prove itself. At the same time, shareholders are slowly but steadily burdened by stock dilution and stock-based compensation. Plus, the CEO sold 21% of his shares in April. Yes, eventually, GTA 6 will be released, but if that's the main argument for the investment, you might as well wait another six months and possibly get in at a cheaper price.
The last quarter was not very successful for the company. Revenue was $1.4B but missed expectations by $140M. On a GAAP basis, there was a significant loss per share of -$1.54. They also lowered FY 2023 revenue guidance from $5.8B to $5.4B. The chart below shows the evolution of some metrics over the last five years. Here we see that revenues are increasing strongly, but costs are increasing almost at the same rate, so real profits are not growing.
The company is currently valued at an enterprise value of $19B. The market cap is $16.9B, and the total debt is $3.7B. The P/S ratio is 4.4, and the forward P/E ratio is approx. 25. The share is thus more cheaply valued than the last few years' averages
this year we going to see GTA6 first trailer and probably release data announcement, plus a next gen update for Red dead redemption2
TTWO under 99$ is a buy zone , I managed to buy some shares at 94$ and will buy more if back to 90-80$ zone again
Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. | Chart & Forecast SummaryKey Indicators on Trade Set Up in General
1. Push Set Up
2. Range Set up
3. Break & Retest Set Up
Active Sessions on Relevant Range & Elemented Probabilities;
* Asian(Ranging) - London(Upwards) - NYC(Downwards)
* Weekend Crypto Session
# Trend | Time Frame Conductive | Weekly Time Frame
- General Trend
- Measurement on Session
* Support & Resistance
* Trade Area | Focus & Motion Ahead
# Position & Risk Reward | Daily Time Frame
- Measurement on Session
* Retracement | 0.5 & 0.618
* Extension | 0.786 & 1
Conclusion | Trade Plan Execution & Risk Management on Demand;
Overall Consensus | Neutral
TTWO Take-Two Interactive Software Take-Two Interactive SoftwareAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of TLRY Tilray Brands prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 155usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2025-1-17,
for a premium of approximately $6.55.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Take Two | TTWO & GTA VIIs TakeTwo Interactive Software Fairly Valued?
We use what is known as a 2 stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US $9.1b
The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.2%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 8.5%.
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$27b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of US$139, the company appears about fair value at a 14% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.
We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Take-Two Interactive Software as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.5%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.071. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. For Take-Two Interactive Software, we've put together three pertinent items you should explore:
Risks: To that end, you should be aware of the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Take-Two Interactive Software
Future Earnings: How does TTWO's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
long story short
Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Take-Two Interactive Software fair value estimate is US$162 and with US$138 share price, Take-Two Interactive Software appears to be trading close to its estimated fair value
Take-Two: Tug of warTake-Two has continued to move sideways above the $130.34 mark over the past two weeks. We primarily expect a resumption of the rise into our beige Target Zone (coordinates: $241.59 - $257.87) to end the beige wave (B) there. However, an alternative scenario (33% likely) will come into play if the stock falls below support at $130.34 which calls for a direct drop to end blue wave alt. (II).
$TTWO Bullish StanceNASDAQ:TTWO bouncing off its 20ema showing a stong move heading back upwards. $255 looks good but bell just rang gotta go! leave comment
Textbook 20% gainThis is a textbook opportunity with potential rewards of over 20%. I'm classifying this as an ultra-low-risk play. The W-pattern with a trendline retest is one of the most bullish setups available. Simply buy, sit back, and enjoy the ride up.
TTWO stock splitI believe that TTWO will conduct a stock split in the near future. The reasoning behind this thinking is that I believe that the company is following past trends of rapid growth and expansion. The last stock split that TTWO did was in 2005 for a 1.5:1 ratio. But before this from 1998 -2005 the company went through a drastic amount of expansion with acquiring over 27 companies and the stock value rising over $20 dollars from an IPO price of around $2 dollars. Now correlating that information to todays data and the company seems to be doing the same thing. From 2016 -2024 the company has acquired 13 companies with two notably being Zynga and Gearbox Entertainment. When you look at the chart you can see both timeframes that they buy in patterns of multiple companies in short bursts of time. But to address the elephant in the room; yes GTA 6 will make an impact to stocks price and is another reason why they would want to initiate a stock split. To get new investors interested in the company at a cheaper price.
GTA VI PLAYGTA VI is in play and not priced in yet. We are gonna see more and more trailers comming and once marketing begins we will blast up minimum 70%. This is my prediction. NFA
TAKE-TWO INTERACTIVE SOFTWARE $TTWO - Feb. 28th, 2024TAKE-TWO INTERACTIVE SOFTWARE NASDAQ:TTWO - Feb. 28th, 2024
BUY/LONG ZONE (GREEN): $153.00 - $168.45
DO NOT TRADE/DNT ZONE (WHITE): $143.65 - $153.00
SELL/SHORT ZONE (RED): $133.00 - $143.65
Weekly: Bearish
Daily: Bearish
4H: Bearish
Currently in a DNT zone as it would be unfair to automatically wait for price to drop and then say it's a bearish area; however, price is strongly bearish on the weekly, daily, and 4H. Shown in blue is previous zones that I would follow and the order in which I would follow them, the previous bullish trend was fairly clear and strong (labels A-E & 1-3). About three weeks ago we saw a drop that pushed right into a bearish zone below level $156.75 (bottom of the zone). Drawn now are the current zones where price currently resides and the trends I would follow in each of them. The arrows show simple potential price movement to look for, but the market is always subject to change and create new levels. Bulls can look for early entry at the bottom of the DNT zone at $143.65 and seek a bounce or wait for price to break back above $153.00. Bears can look for price continuing below level $143.65 or a pullback anywhere up to $153.00 and rejection back towards the $143.65 level and lower.
This is what I would personally look at before entering trades, everything is subject to change on a daily basis and as I analyze different timeframes and ideas.
ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY, NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE!
trend analysis, chart patterns, support and resistance
Take-Two Interactive Faces Setbacks Amidst Lowered ForecastsTake-Two Interactive Software Inc., ( NASDAQ:TTWO ) renowned for its iconic titles like "Grand Theft Auto" and "Red Dead Redemption," recently faced a tumultuous period marked by lowered fiscal forecasts and the postponement of a highly anticipated game release. Despite these setbacks, analysts remain cautiously optimistic about the company's future, citing a strong content pipeline and the potential for blockbuster releases. Let's delve into the intricacies of Take-Two Interactive's ( NASDAQ:TTWO ) recent challenges and the silver linings that offer hope to investors.
A Bumpy Ride in Fiscal Q3:
In its fiscal third-quarter earnings report, Take-Two Interactive ( NASDAQ:TTWO ) revealed a 3% year-over-year decline in total net bookings, amounting to $1.34 billion for the three months ending December 31, 2023. The slip in net bookings was accompanied by increased marketing costs and a net loss, including an impairment charge, totaling $91.6 million. Notably, sales of "NBA 2K24" fell short of expectations, although the company remains optimistic about the title's long-term performance.
Game Delays and Revised Forecasts:
Adding to the company's woes was the announcement of a delay in the release of an unspecified game originally slated for the fourth quarter of the fiscal year. This, coupled with challenges in the mobile gaming advertising segment, prompted Take-Two Interactive ( NASDAQ:TTWO ) to revise its guidance for full-year net bookings downward to a range of $5.25 billion to $5.30 billion, down from the previous projection of $5.45 billion to $5.55 billion. The news sent shockwaves through the market, leading to an 8% drop in the company's stock price.
Bright Spots Amidst Adversity:
Despite the setbacks, Take-Two Interactive's ( NASDAQ:TTWO ) mobile gaming division, Zynga, managed to find success with titles like "Match Factory!" and "Toon Blast." Better-than-expected in-app purchases and the promising performance of "Match Factory!" encouraged the company to ramp up marketing efforts for the title, betting on its long-term profitability. Moreover, analysts highlighted the strength of Take-Two Interactive's content pipeline as a key factor supporting its resilience amidst challenges.
Analysts' Optimism and Future Prospects:
While the short-term outlook may seem turbulent, analysts maintain a positive outlook on Take-Two Interactive's ( NASDAQ:TTWO ) long-term prospects. Jefferies Equity Research suggests that the stock may remain "range-bound" until the company provides more clarity on the release of "Grand Theft Auto VI," a highly anticipated installment in the acclaimed franchise. Goldman Sachs analysts echoed this sentiment, emphasizing the company's solid operating momentum and the potential realization of its content pipeline in the years ahead.
Conclusion:
Take-Two Interactive Software Inc., ( NASDAQ:TTWO ) finds itself at a crossroads, grappling with challenges such as game delays and lowered forecasts while navigating the dynamic landscape of the gaming industry. However, amidst adversity, the company retains several bright spots, including successful titles in its portfolio and optimism from analysts regarding its long-term trajectory. As investors await further developments, the resilience and strategic vision of Take-Two Interactive ( NASDAQ:TTWO ) will undoubtedly play a crucial role in shaping its future success.
GTA VI 2025 release crash could influence a 2024 release.Investors and gamers continue to wait so long for progress.
We have regular people on youtube showing how a fan made
game can be made quickly and sometimes better in some ways and it takes years for
them to release GTA VI. The people want it sooner so i think investors
should pressure them to do so. The trailer was decent but i have seen better.
Fan made content is better than what was shown in the video.
I think the game should release in MAY 2024 not 2025. I am tired going to sleep for a week.
Flight Boarding - Grand Theft Auto 6Hey fellow gamers and number-crunchers, gather 'round! 🎮
Big news alert: Rockstar Games is dropping the first trailer for Grand Theft Auto 6 on December 5, 2023! twitter.com
Now, for those who live and breathe gaming, no further explanation needed. But hey, to the data lovers and boomers in the house, let me break it down for you.
Rockstar is the genius behind hits like Grand Theft Auto, Red Dead Redemption, Bully, and La Noire. Flashback to 2013 when they unleashed Grand Theft Auto 5, which turned out to be the best-selling console/PC-only game EVER. Talk about a gaming legend!
Fast forward to now, and GTA 5 has racked up a mind-blowing 185 million units in sales by August 2023. That's across three console generations and PC, making it the cash cow of the entertainment world.
Hold on to your controllers because Grand Theft Auto 6 is gearing up for launch, and the prediction is a whopping $1 billion in sales from the get-go! 🤑 Experts are betting on at least 25 million copies flying off the shelves on release day.
For the financial gurus out there, I've got the deets on TTWO Rockstar Games history prices in my previous analysis. And if you're eyeing the market, the sweet spot for entering the trade seems to be at that red horizontal line at 146 - 150. But here's the cherry on top: I believe we're aiming for a new all-time high beyond 210! 🚀
So, who's ready for the next gaming revolution? 🌟 Share your thoughts below and let the positive vibes flow! 🚀🎉
TTWOOn the bullish side, strong Fundamentals. Good r/w ratio. If in Stay In, if out get in ASAP! By Feb we should hit Target.
Grand Theft Auto VI Trailer Release Leak Hits Take-Take SharesAnother online leak marred the highly anticipated release of Take-Two's Grand Theft Auto VI videogame trailer.
Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) - shares slumped lower Tuesday after the videogame maker arranged the early release of a trailer for its highly anticipated Grand Theft Auto VI title.
The new release, which comes nearly a decade after the previous title in the popular videogame franchise, will be available in 2025, Take-Two said, and will mark the 25th anniversary of its collaboration with Rockstar Games, the division that created the original title.
The new Grand Theft Auto trailer, however, had been scheduled for debut later this morning. Indications from Rockstar suggested portions of the trailer were leaked online, compelling the company to bring forward its release time.
Take-Two shares were marked 3.2% lower in premarket trading to indicate an opening bell price of $152.60 each, a move that would still leave the stock more than 50% higher for the year.
The Grand Theft Auto VI trailer was last seen to have around 9.9 million views on Google-owned YouTube and could provide a compelling boost to both the gamemaker's current offerings and the 2025 release.
"The upcoming release of the new Grand Theft Auto game is expected to generate substantial enthusiasm, acting as a key driver for current Rockstar Games titles and live services, including 'Grand Theft Auto 5', 'Grand Theft Auto Online', and the 'Red Dead Redemption' franchise,'" said Benchmark analyst Mike Hickey.
The anticipated release of 'Grand Theft Auto Next' is likely to boost TTWO's growth significantly in fiscal years 2025 and 2026.
Technical Analysis
TTWO is trading near the top of its 52-week range and above its 200-day simple moving average. Investors have been pushing the share price higher, and the stock still appears to have upward momentum. This is a positive sign for the stock's future value.
Time to buy into the GTA 6 hype?Tomorrow will be the day the first trailer for GTA 6 will be released. It's been nearly ten years since GTA 5 was released and broke world records. The wait for GTA 6 can not be compared to another game. The hype and anticipation are off the charts. This creates a unique investment opportunity.
Looking at the historical prices news related to GTA has created considerable share price movements. Especially when related to GTA 6.
In September 2022, a leak about GTA 6 caused Take-Two’s stock to plummet. Recently, when Rockstar announced in November that early December is when we would see the first news around GTA 6 the shares gapped up and rose around 17.17% in 30 days.
There is considerable space for big gains when Rockstar releases the trailer tomorrow. It all rides on the investor's expectations, which will largely be following the customer's expectations. If the customers see it being good and the trialer receives a lot of attention, positive of course, then the share price will inevitables go up.
Trailer released => Large positive response by customers => investors excited and happy => share prices rise.
Now of course this is the short-term outlook. What about the long-term? The game will most likely be released next year in the fall. But this game will no doubt break records and will allow Take-Two, the company that owns Rockstar, to profit handsomely. Just as GTA 5 did. This therefore seems like a great opportunity to buy the shares before the short-term rapid rise and possible long-term outlook. However, speaking long-termly this would need a different piece of analysis that I'm not doing right now. But all I will say is the potential for long-term growth is there and this could be a good buying in price right now.
It would be difficult to put a price range for tomorrow. But I would say between 20% - 30%, which is around the all time high. But I do see potential for further upside tomorrow.
Big News for TTWOFirstly this is not a technical analysis chart. This is simply my thoughts on TTWO stock
As many people know TTWO owns two big videogame publishing labels, Rockstar Games and 2K.
There are some news about Rockstar games upcoming game GTA 6. Series last videogame was published over 10 years ago and is still one of the most played games in the world.
We all know how hype and expectations can affect a stock. First example to this is CD Projekt SA (WSE: CDR) . This company was developer to a similar genre game named Cyberpunk 2077 which got major attention till release. You can see how stock was affected between trailers release and games release.
Lets look at this chart now. at November 8 . Rockstar Games announced that trailer will be released in december. stock price got pumped over %20 to this date.
And today December 1 they officially announced a trailer release date which is December 5.
If simply a trailer announcement got this much attention I suspect that if the actual trailer get peoples attention it will generate more interest in the stock.
You can see how much money Rockstar games made in past and project how much Revenue the new release will generate.
Also there are rumors that 2k will be responsible for development of new Fifa games from now on since EA and FIFA parted ways this year.
TTWO is a rising company and has promising projects / rumors for future.
Not financial analysis - just notes to myself
GTA VI Effect?Take Two Interactive, while on the downward sloping trend has formed a cup & handle pattern and successfully managed to break out of the range. The arrival of next Grand Theft Auto series is likely to push the stock up as it is likely to be one of the best selling titles in the gaming industry.
The stock has many supporting reasons to drive its price higher as we may see the continuation of GTA Online (for both V & VI) which has been a massive success amongst the community and also for Rockstar as it has helped generate regular income from its business model. Other than being the best GTA ever, it will incorporate features from other successful titles such as Red Dead Redemption 2, which arguably had better graphics than GTA V & all other games from the parent company in the past. We may also see Rockstar borrowing elements from RDR 2 like character physics & animals such as horses which have never been present in GTA before. This will be biggest & best release ever from the GTA series unlike Apple claiming their Iphone to be which is merely different from its previous iterations.
Moreover, the stock is down from its all time high and thus we can expect to see it breaking its previous highs with the next GTA on its cards. The stock looks good for a long term holding as Rockstar has high estimates from its upcoming titles in 2024-25 and none other than next GTA can achieve this level of sales. Rockstar has other upcoming titles too in the pipeline that may contribute to their success in the future.
