UPST trade ideas
PATTERNS & PITFALLS #1
The market is designed to make you fall into traps, and make you doing things. By nature, we tend to overcomplicate things and trading is one of them. As in coding, the best way to code is to Keep It Simple Stupid (kiss).
One of this thing is what i call “The Home Runs Chaser”. A large majority of retail traders, slowly tendto look everyday for a stock heading up to the moon. Why does this happen? How we slowly enter into that thinking process when we start trading?
So you start trading for few days or few weeks, you see a stock on an uptrend and you go long, take money and then you see the stock going up fast after you exited, what do you tell yourself?
“Damn it, i should have held it a little longer, if only...”
And then it happens a few more times, and BINGO you’re in it, you’re in the trap designed by the stock market:
- You start looking everyday for home runs.
- Now you have the “win or loss” mentality
So you allow yourself to lose it. You see gains but you’re focusing on the holy grail, the holy target!
LOOKING FOR HOME RUNS WILL LEAD YOU TO NOT GETTING PAID !!!
Plus it will frustrates you a lot because most of the time, you won’t have the home run.
=> We must enter the right way of course, as usual, BUT BUT BUT, we must take quick wins when it’s on our side.
=> Sometimes we have low wins when the stocks have low momentums and sometimes big wins if they are big.
But at every trade: you should take partial profits along the way.
Exemple: you enter long in stock XYZ at 20$ with 100 shares. Your target is 22$. Instead of waiting the price to reach 22$ to sell your 100 shares, what you should do is to take partial profits. So at $20.49 you sell 25 shares, then at $20.99 you sell again 25 shares. If it goes over 21$ then you wait for the price to reach 21.30 to sell again 25 shares BUT if the price goes back to 20.50, just sell 25 shares to secure a bigger win. The remaining of the 25 shares are sold at ~ $21.97 in the case it goes up, or sold
at ~ $20.20 if the price drops.
That’s how you secure a win and not let the trade goes against you.....
And if you have to leave your computer, just use the trailing stop with an ok spread between the price and the stop just not to be stopped too quick if the price moves down a bit before going up.
Nice Run. Time for pullbacks. Greetings All,
UPST has seen tremendous appreciation over the last few weeks, after releasing its first earnings report. Nevertheless, the technicals indicate retracements ahead, likely around the 50% area ($110), which coincides nicely with the 20MA. This is apparent with the breakout below the symmetrical triangle formed on the daily. The MACD also confirms this pullback with a bearish crossover on the daily. I'm actually targeting a 61% retracement ($96) in the coming weeks.
Happy Trading!
Disclaimer. My ideas are for informational purposes only. You should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. There are risks associated with investing in securities. Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, options and money market funds involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Exercise your own due diligence.
$UPST For follower $UPST is bearish, after offering, it had perfect trend line break and inside bar short today (came up on short scanner all times frames from yesterday afternoon through today on TC2000) you want that smaller Gartley to hold if your long, i would not suggest new position, 20 day is key to stick, loses that 50 day should happen, careful if long. I left last ABCD pattern, that shot up 300% from trigger no mae, see my last $UPST ABCD pattern plan in my charts history search bar. Hope this helps, but it is not signaling long to me unfortunately,
New HIGH PerformerUPST, is a new high performer getting too high for its range, but if we look in the chart, we can see that there is a first pullback, a second pullback and now we it looks like we are onto the third one, as we know, these kind of one time runners, pullback only three times at its best conditions, being the third the riskier one, this third pullback usually only bounces to the last resistance, which is the new high resistance.
We could also see that the next to last candle, was a red one closing in the middle with pretty high volume, and the last candle (which is the important) closed in the low end of it with no volume at all. This shows how buyers sold their shares, as for the moment we only have the momentum of the stock, not the supply acting.
If you were up to date, you could have entered in the first and second pullback if you have an aggressive approach, getting some great benefits.
But for the more conservatives, we can expect this stock to give the last positives profits of the week, as we expect it to form an AR (wyckoff) giving us a new support were we can enter.
Hope you have a great day.
How do you evaluate the upside potential on new IPO's UPSTSo Upstart looks like a really exciting company.
Ex OG google brain started up this AI lending system that beats out traditional models by a lot.
I like the team, I like the idea, and it's performing well.
with already close to 200% up from it's IPO price though, I'm weary to jump in.
Market cap is at 4.5B which is a little high for me cuz I usually target small cap stocks.
The lending industry is multi trillion dollars though so technically this thing could shoot to the moon.
Would love some advise on how to approach this trade.