WBA trade ideas
What Happened to Walgreens?Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) has essentially crashed. I think many of us know this story, seeing it across cities and towns across the country.
However, based on the recent price action, who knows how much longer this will last. It currently trades at 25+ year lows.
Here are a few key reasons why Walgreens stock is in a free fall:
1. E-Commerce Growth: Walgreens has lagged behind competitors like CVS and Amazon in capturing the digital health and e-commerce market. It may be too late.
2. Weak Earnings: Its latest earnings report showed lower-than-expected revenues, and the outlook for 2024 hasn’t provided much optimism.
3. Debt Load: Walgreens' acquisition of Boots and other ventures has left it with a significant debt burden, making it harder to navigate in this high-interest-rate environment.
Is it a dip buy? I think the debt is too much. There don't seem to be any catalysts.
A story I'll watch a little more closely...
Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) is gearing up for a potent ...Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) is gearing up for a potential breakout, presenting an enticing opportunity for investors.
Recent news indicates that Walgreens is restructuring its business model and focusing on cost-cutting measures, which could significantly enhance profitability. Additionally, the company's efforts to expand its healthcare services and improve in-store experiences align well with market trends, making it well-positioned for growth. As analysts project a possible 15% surge in the stock price, now may be the time to consider WBA as a solid investment.
BOOOOOOOOOOOM...
BUYWBA- Huge falling wedge.
Over sold for long preriot.
I see double bottom on the RSI- bears starts to get exhausted.
Fundamental- its worth to buy for the high dividends yields.
Walgreens passive income & potential swingShares Only: Many would tell you to stay away from this sinking ship. I am diversifying my portfolio as we did very well this year. I would like exposure to a defensive stock that can possibly perform well in a recession. I would prefer some sort of reversal pattern on a weekly chart, but we don't have one. What attracts me is the 10.75% dividend and knowing I am buying WBA at the same lows from 1997. There is a daily gap fill at 15.50 which can be a swing target for swing traders. I will decide whether I want to swing this trade or hold for passive income later. WBA's chart is in a bearish channel downwards but if we could get some sort of a reversal pattern on the weekly chart, I may look to add to my position.
Walgreens Boots Alliance, Inc. | Chart & Forecast SummaryKey Indicators on Trade Set Up in General
1. Push Set Up
2. Range Set up
3. Break & Retest Set Up
Active Sessions on Relevant Range & Elemented Probabilities;
* Asian(Ranging) - London(Upwards) - NYC(Downwards)
* Weekend Crypto Session
# Trend | Time Frame Conductive | Weekly Time Frame
- General Trend
- Measurement on Session
* Support & Resistance
* Trade Area | Focus & Motion Ahead
# Position & Risk Reward | Daily Time Frame
- Measurement on Session
* Retracement | 0.5 & 0.618
* Extension | 0.786 & 1
Conclusion | Trade Plan Execution & Risk Management on Demand;
Overall Consensus | Neutral
WBA | A Pop is Imminent for this left for Dead StockWalgreens Boots Alliance, Inc. engages in the provision of healthcare and retail pharmacy services. It operates through the following segments: United States Retail Pharmacy, International, and United States Healthcare. The US Retail Pharmacy segment includes the operation of retail drugstores, health and wellness services, specialty and home delivery pharmacy services, and equity method investment. The International segment offers pharmacy-led health and beauty retail businesses outside the US and the pharmaceutical wholesaling and distribution business in Germany. The US Healthcare segment delivers improved health outcomes and lower costs for payors and providers through owned and partnered assets. The company was founded by Charles R. Walgreen and John Boot in 1909 and is headquartered in Deerfield, IL.
Walgreens +130% PotentialPrice is finally mitigating Aug 28, 1996 - Sep 3, 1996 sell-off. Let's see if we get a nice bounce.
WBASo Walgreens might have its day in the sun soon. The stock is finally trending up. The technicals look good and volume is starting to increase on the daily. This is not a short term play. This is a 6 month steady dollar cost average. That being said, I would buy the April 2025 calls at 12.50.
Here is a more constructive analysis….
The US economy is not good and there will be no “soft landing.” We just saw Walmart knock the cover off the ball. Target saved their earnings by shutting down stores in California as well taking advantage of the quiet casual. Quiet casual is code for… I used to be rich, now I’m not so I’ll wear white label target clothes with a Gucci belt I haven’t had to pawn yet. Walmart picked up the target shopper and target picked up the rodeo drive shopper. What does this mean for Walgreens? It means they just picked up the Walmart shoppers. How do we know that? They just became eligible to accept snap. If they pick up just 10% of snap households at 30 bucks a month, that’s over 1.5bb in revenue.
Walgreens has refinanced debt with more expensive debt but that is a bullish sign. They believe 8% debt is better than selling equity. That means they expect the stock to go up at least 12% in the coming year. This is a long term play of at least 12 to 18 months. With a PE ratio at all time lows, this is heavy value and will do well in the economy we are heading into.
WBA - go fill in that gap, damn it! Walgreens Boots Alliance Trading at 75.8% below our estimate of its fair value
Earnings are forecast to grow 83.28% per year
Trading at good value compared to peers and industry
WBA stock is a strong buy due to its consistent dividend yield, robust global presence, and strategic initiatives in healthcare and retail. The company's expansion into digital health positions it for future growth.
WBA-LONGLooking for $12.50 for the breakout, i know the company having legal troubles, and short cash. still think target is doable by aug 23rd.
WBA to long term trend line part 2Price target from descending wedge and long term price trend line around 8 - 10 dollar range.
WOW Walgreens! Why you DON'T Baghold!NASDAQ:WBA is a techable moment and I had to make a video today. I checked my watchlist of current and recent trades exited and saw that Walgreens was down -25% overnight! Horrible earnings is the "reason" but really the stock has been in an unabated downtrend for months.
I tried to take a long off the 2009 low back in January but my rules had me GET OUT in April. I did not like taking a loss at the time (no one does) but it's moments like this in trading and investing that remind you in a good way (rather than painful way) why you follow your exit rules!
6/27/24 - $wba - Textbook ex. of why avoid leveraged stonks6/27/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:WBA
Textbook ex. of why avoid leveraged stonks
Not dunking on the stock or holders here. and not writing this for the record of benefit of myself (like all the other posts).
anything today that's got extreme leverage w/ sticky high interest rates is probably going to be in the second or third tier of what gets bot when liquidity moves on this tape.
in this example 13 bn of equity (as of y day) and 35 bn+ of net debt is 50 bn in enterprise value. so even with the stock down 20% and will invariably chop around (probably tends lower)... it's not really a bargain unfortunately. so you take 20% off of 13 bn and let's round up say 3 bn ... you're at 10 bn of equity and still 35 bn of net debt and back to 45 bn of enterprise value (10+35). 10% off.
i have loved the names where the opposite mathematical paradigm occurs. NASDAQ:BLDE has been one example i've traded close to 10 mm market cap in the last 12 months (simply bc they have so much net cash). NYSE:YOU is another one - though my thesis is changing to be less bullish on the long term - and will need to update thinking here after *finally* signing up and test driving the service - but more on this in another note.
just be careful w/ the highly leveraged stuff unless 1) cash flow is not lumpy (it is in this case), 2) the consumer is probably not front and center of the story (it is again here - tough macro factor), 3) results haven't been a problem and the stock isn't broken (again strike three).
the best bet when you get caught bag holding stuff like this is typically just find a place to make peace and get rid of it. go to cash or go to SPX or QQQ for some time. it's also hard to do just that on a down 20% day at the open. maybe we get a retrace sure. but again.
this is expensive and 20% doesn't tell the whole story.
hope this helps someone avoid the mistake in another co at some pt in the future.
V
WBA Walgreens Boots Alliance Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought WBA before the previous earnings:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of WBA Walgreens Boots Alliance prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 17.50usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-7-19,
for a premium of approximately $0.41.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Walgreens Boots Alliance: Turning Point 🔄Walgreens Boots Alliance shares have now dipped into our Target Zone between $19.29 and $16.53. Here we expect the end of the blue wave (II) and thus a reversal. Traders could open long positions within the range, with stops about 1% below the lower edge.
Long WBATook WBA long at $19.40 with a stop below $19.15 on a closing basis based off the hourly chart.
WBA Walgreens Boots Alliance Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought the dip on WBA:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of WBA Walgreens Boots Alliance prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 21usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-4-19,
for a premium of approximately $1.00.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Walgreens Boots Alliance Sees Mixed Results in Q2 Fiscal 2024Walgreens Boots Alliance ( NASDAQ:WBA ), a global leader in pharmacy-led health and well-being, has released its fiscal 2024 second-quarter results, showcasing both challenges and successes in a rapidly evolving market landscape.
The financial report reveals a complex picture, with the company experiencing a substantial loss per share of $6.85 compared to earnings per share of $0.81 in the same period last year. This significant disparity stems primarily from a $5.8 billion non-cash impairment charge related to VillageMD goodwill. Adjusted earnings per share, however, increased modestly by 3.4 percent to $1.20, reflecting improved profitability in the U.S. Healthcare segment and a lower adjusted effective tax rate.
Despite the loss, second-quarter sales saw a notable uptick of 6.3 percent year-over-year to $37.1 billion, with growth recorded across all segments. This increase, coupled with the achievement of positive adjusted EBITDA in the U.S. Healthcare division for the first time, underscores the company's resilience and ability to navigate challenging market conditions.
Looking ahead, Walgreens Boots Alliance ( NASDAQ:WBA ) has adjusted its fiscal 2024 guidance, narrowing the adjusted EPS range to $3.20 to $3.35. This revision reflects a challenging retail environment in the U.S., as well as factors such as the early wind-down of the sale-leaseback program and lower earnings due to Cencora share sales. However, the company remains committed to executing its strategic initiatives and achieving $1 billion in cost savings this year.
CEO Tim Wentworth expressed optimism about the future despite the current headwinds, emphasizing the importance of focusing on customer engagement and value creation. He highlighted the company's progress in achieving positive adjusted EBITDA in the U.S. Healthcare segment and its ongoing efforts to streamline operations and drive growth.
Walgreens Boots Alliance's financial report provides valuable insights into the dynamics of the retail pharmacy industry and the company's strategic priorities in response to evolving market trends. As it continues to navigate challenges and capitalize on opportunities, stakeholders will be closely monitoring its performance and strategic execution in the quarters ahead.
Technical Outlook
NASDAQ:WBA is exhibiting a bullish symmetrical triangle pattern, suggesting potential upward momentum in the near term. With a moderate Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 50. NASDAQ:WBA is poised for a further surge in the near term.
Long term trendline for WBALong term trendline for WBA may serve as support for a swing trade technical bounce. Price is around 17.5. This offers a good R to R with a short stop loss. Previous touches of the line have had returns of +77%. I dont know if that will happen this time, but a few dollars 20 to 24 maybe resistance. Earnings are this week and I would not be surprised if price sells off and goes to the trendline.
Let's dive into the details of WBA's 4h chart from Oct-2023Oct-Dec 2023 Consolidation
From October to December 2023, WBA formed a regression channel on the 4h timeframe, which was a period of consolidation. The channel was marked by a support line drawn on the 1d timeframe, which acted as a resistance line on the 4h chart.
Dec 2023 Breakout
On December 2023, WBA broke out of the regression channel, reaching a high of 27 USD. This breakout was supported by the resistance line drawn on the 1d timeframe, which acted as a strong resistance line on the 4h chart.
Jan-Mar 2024 Consolidation
From January to March 2024, WBA formed a similar regression channel on the 4h timeframe. This channel was marked by a support line drawn on the 1d timeframe, which acted as a resistance line on the 4h chart.
Potential Breakout or Breakdown
Now, the similar regression channel formed from January to March 2024 is in a consolidation phase. We need to wait and watch to see if WBA will breakout or breakdown. If it breaks out, it could potentially reach new highs, while a breakdown could lead to a correction.
Conclusion
WBA's 4h chart from Oct-2023 on the NASDAQ shows a clear pattern of consolidation and breakout. The similar regression channel formed from Jan till Mar 2024 is in a consolidation phase, which could lead to a potential breakout or breakdown. Stay tuned and keep an eye on WBA's chart to see how the market reacts! 📈💡
