GBPUSDDXYBXY is showing strong bullish momentum, and with the UK Inflation YoY news event approaching at 09:00 (April 16th), it's a very sensitive price zone.
Technical :
🔹 Clear bullish structure: higher highs and higher lows 🔹 Price is pushing into a potential resistance zone (marked by current hesitation)
🔹This latest hourly candle shows indecision (small-bodied candle, maybe forming a doji), which could mean ?
> Buyers are cautious, awaiting news catalyst (inflation data)
- Hawkish signal → GBP strengthens - Breakout above 1.3270 is likely, pushing to: - Short-term target: 1.3300
Next level: 1.3335–1.3350 (psychological + fib extension area)
❌ If CPI Comes in Lower Than 2.7%:
- Dovish signal → GBP weakens - Reversal possible from current zone - Price may break below 1.3230–1.3215, targeting: > 1.3180 > 1.3150 (strong support)
Focus here on what to expect,
- First hour after CPI release is crucial, If price breaks and closes above 1.3270 on the 1h, it confirms momentum
- If CPI disappoints and price forms bearish engulfing here, it’s a high-probability short
- This is news-driven volatility, so spreads widen, Be patient, wait for candle closures, not spikes
- If you're already in from earlier longs, tighten SL or secure partials before CPI release.
The NFP report came in HOT, much higher than expected:
Actual: 228K
Forecast: 135K | Previous (Revised Upwards): 117K
However, the unemployment rate also ticked higher to 4.2% vs. the forecast of 4.1%.
Key Levels to Watch,
For GU: 1.2950 support, 1.3050 resistance For GJ: 190.00 psychological level
> Impact on GBP/USD (GU)
🔹 Initial Reaction: Strong NFP = USD Bullish > GBP/USD drops 🔹 BUT Unemployment Rate Higher, this could limit USD strength if markets think the Fed will still cut rates later. 🔹 GU Bias: Short-term bearish, but watch Fed commentary & risk sentiment.
> Impact on GBP/JPY (GJ)
🔹 Stronger USD lifts USD/JPY > Pulls GBP/JPY up 🔹 Risk sentiment , If markets focus on strong NFP, GJ can rally. If they focus on higher unemployment (slower economy), JPY could strengthen & push GJ lower.
So, GBPUSD played out exactly as expected, massive manipulation before the real move. We had four weeks of consolidation, price pushed aggressively to the upside, hitting 1.32, which in hindsight was likely one of the biggest liquidity grabs we've seen in a while. Smart money took price up, cleaned out weak shorts, then flipped and started the real move down. $ hitting an all time low was very huge fundamental news !
Trump’s Tariffs Shook the Market > New 10% base tariffs on all imports, with higher duties for EU, China, and even UK exports (25% on cars, steel, and aluminum). This initially weakened the USD and gave GBP/USD a strong push up.
Dollar Weakness Triggered Risk On Sentiment > The market dumped dollars aggressively, sending GBP/USD to a six-month high at 1.32.
Stock Market Crash Added Fuel > The S&P 500 tanked nearly 5%, wiping out 2.5 trillion dollars in market value—the worst single-day drop since 2020. Panic across markets exaggerated price swings.
The Reversal Kicked In – After that liquidity grab, GBP/USD faced strong rejection from 1.3200. The sell-off started, breaking structure to the downside.
Retail traders Literally don't see all this due to pure ignorance. This insight impacts XAUUSDGBPJPYDXYBXY almost every asset and cross market assets.
What can we expect on GBPUSD, A Potential Drop to 1.2550, The next major downside target could be the weekly fair value gap (FVG) around 1.2550, aligning with where liquidity rests, Watch Key Level at 1.2950 is critical support. If it breaks, downside momentum accelerates fast.
That entire move up to 1.32 was a setup. The real direction is now unfolding.
Above IDEA posted on Feb 17th with LONG bias, at the time we posted we were in a LONG SWING with +235 PIPS, now capitalising +600 PIPS , it was all right in front of your Sight! But ignored. > Just do a play on the IDEA to see the price action.
Now, we are heading to a Supply Zone, what next ? Wait for the next IDEA.
Lessons to Learn! Being adamant / sarcastic / is't gonna us, being humble / watching price and reaction at levels can make your trading better. S&D alone cannot make you a better trader, there are many more things come into the frame. Even if you post your A+ Trading setup / rules, Humans will say they are BS and keep failing, that's how emotions are wired due to arrogance and QUIT at a point when market Slams hard on the face.
ITC/ SMC / MMT / Wyckoff / BUY/SELL indicators and what not! So much garbage around, make a simple system or pick 1 model and master it than trying to catch every unicorn you see around this space. It takes time and effort without giving up. This can help you reduce decades of learning curve.
GBPJPY guys don't let 2 phoney candles get you into sells !! remember react to the market. dont just enter trades because of deceiving movement!! I am still holding my trade with proper risk management lets boost this buy JPYXBXY
GBPUSD 
DXY 
BXY is showing strong bullish momentum, and with the UK Inflation YoY news event approaching at 09:00 (April 16th), it's a very sensitive price zone. 
