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ALERT: EUR Broke Out of Long-term Downtrend Vs Currency Basket This is the aggregate EUR index against several currencies called EXY (like DXY) Large downtrend from 2008 was breached this quarter to the upside. The first trigger of trend weakness occurred in the summer of 2017 when EUR index crossed over mid-line and for the rest of time the price has remained there. In 2021, the price has shown a false break to the upside but failed to progress further. That top is the nearest target for the price at 123, which will book +9% profit. The next barrier is located at the top of 2014 of 140 with +24% gain.
TVC:EXYLong
by aibek
Is the Euro's Stability a Mirage?The Euro Currency Index stands at a crossroads, its future clouded by a confluence of political, economic, and social forces that threaten to unravel the very fabric of Europe. Rising nationalism, fueled by demographic shifts and economic fragility, is driving political instability across the continent. This unrest, particularly in economic powerhouses like Germany, triggers capital flight and erodes investor confidence. Meanwhile, geopolitical realignments—most notably the U.S.'s strategic pivot away from Europe—are weakening the euro's global standing. As these forces converge, the eurozone's once-solid foundation appears increasingly fragile, raising a critical question: is the stability of the euro merely an illusion? Beneath the surface, deeper threats loom. Europe's aging population and shrinking workforce exacerbate economic stagnation, while the European Union's cohesion is tested by fragmentation risks, from Brexit's lingering effects to Italy's debt woes. These challenges are not isolated; they feed into a cycle of uncertainty that could destabilize financial markets and undermine the euro's value. Yet, history reminds us that Europe has weathered storms before. Its ability to adapt—through political unity, economic reform, and innovation—could determine whether the euro emerges stronger or succumbs to the pressures mounting against it. The path forward is fraught with complexity, but it also presents an opportunity. Will Europe confront its demographic and political challenges head-on, or will it allow hidden vulnerabilities to dictate its fate? The answer may reshape not only the euro's trajectory but the future of global finance itself. As investors, policymakers, and citizens watch this drama unfold, one thing is clear: the euro's story is far from over, and its next chapter demands bold vision and decisive action. What do you see in the shadows of this unfolding crisis?
NASDAQ:XDEShort
by UDIS_View
Geometry: Using Chords to Predict Trend EndpointsIdentify Key Points : Start by pinpointing significant highs and lows within the trend. These will be the endpoints of your chords. Draw Chords: Connect these significant highs and lows with straight lines (chords). These chords represent potential paths the market might follow. Analyze Chord Patterns: Uptrend : Draw chords connecting higher lows to higher highs. This helps visualize the upward momentum and potential reversal points. Downtrend : Draw chords connecting lower highs to lower lows. This helps identify the downward momentum and potential support levels. Sideways Trend : In a sideways trend, chords can connect alternating highs and lows, helping to identify consolidation zones. Looking at the EUR currency index, we can see the chord being used to monitor the trend critical points, lower highs and lower lows, validating a weaker EUR. Conclusion Expect a rise in pairs paired with EUR, such as USD, GDP. Keep in mind that it’s also important to validate the strength of the other economies before deciding on a trade.
TVC:EXYEducation
by DjMaxCapital
Rate-cut discussions are prematureThe ECB left its monetary policy unchanged, in line with expectations. The information available since the December meeting has largely confirmed the central bank’s assessment of the medium-term inflation outlook, leaving the Governing Council (GC) in a wait-and-see mode. ECB President Lagarde confirmed her Davos comments, hence indicating that she still expects the first rate cut to come in summer, but the market is not convinced, and dovish remarks here and there actually fueled meaningful rate-cut expectations already for the April meeting. While the ECB’s GDP and CPI forecasts will likely be revised down in March, the GC seems absolutely determined to play it safe on inflation, and this will continue as long as the labor market holds up. I still expect the first rate cut in June, followed by a gradual reduction at a pace of 25bp per quarter towards a broadly neutral level of 2%. Despite ongoing weakness in indicators of economic activity, the GC appears relatively relaxed about the growth outlook, largely thanks to ongoing resilience in the labor market. The statement mentions signs of recovery in some leading indicators, despite most of them still pointing to broad stagnation in GDP. Did Ms. Lagarde want to signal that the GC is warming up to the idea of an “early” start to the easing cycle? Probably not. Her rhetoric was mainly aimed at strengthening the message that the ECB is data-dependent, as opposed to calendar-driven.
TVC:EXYLong
by Elite_Forex
Bearish Flag on 1 Day TF EXY - AnalysisAnalysis: EXY, representing a particular asset or market index, seems to be forming a pattern that suggests a potential bearish flag. Let's take a closer look at this analysis: Bearish Flag Pattern: Think of a flag on a pole, but this time, the flagpole represents a strong downward movement in the price of EXY. The flag, which looks like a rectangular shape, indicates a period of consolidation, where the price is taking a breather before potentially continuing its downward trend. It's a pattern that might signal further price drops. 1-Day Time Frame: We're focusing on the price movements of EXY over one day at a time. This provides us with a broader view of what's happening and helps filter out short-term fluctuations. Price Implication: If the price of EXY breaks out of this bearish flag pattern in a downward direction, it could lead to further price declines. The extent of the drop would depend on various factors, but the pattern suggests a bearish sentiment. Additional considerations: Confirmation: For this pattern to be more reliable, it should be confirmed by a noticeable increase in trading activity, such as higher trading volumes. This would strengthen the signal that EXY might be heading for a bearish move. Support and Resistance: It's essential to identify levels where the price might encounter obstacles or find support. These levels can help guide decisions about selling or buying. Market Sentiment: Keep an eye on factors outside of the chart, like economic news, events, or developments that might influence the value of EXY. For instance, global events or economic reports can significantly impact this asset. Risk Management: Just as in any investment, it's crucial to manage risk effectively. Set limits on potential losses and decide how much you're willing to invest. Market Conditions: Consider the broader economic landscape and how it might affect EXY. Economic trends, geopolitical events, or market conditions can all play a part. In summary, you've noticed a potential bearish flag pattern in the price of EXY. However, remember that patterns can change, so it's important to wait for confirmation before making any trading decisions. Also, be aware of external factors that could influence EXY's price and practice proper risk management. #TradingAnalysis #TechnicalPatterns #MarketTrends #BearishFlag #EXYAnalysis #PriceMovements #InvestmentStrategies #TradingSignals #RiskManagement #FinancialMarkets #TradingOpportunities #EconomicIndicators #MarketVolatility #AssetAnalysis #PricePredictions
TVC:EXYShort
by The_TradingW0LF
Euro Shorts at 11 Months High: A Hedge Fund's Hilarious TakeIntroduction: Hold onto your hats because we've got some juicy news straight from the hedge fund world. Brace yourselves for a rollercoaster ride as we delve into the wild world of euro shorts, as reported by a certain hedge fund that knows how to tickle our funny bones. Get ready to chuckle and, of course, take some action! The Hedge Fund Report: Picture this: it's been a whopping 11 months since our dear hedge fund buddies decided to take on the mighty euro. And boy, have they been having a laugh! According to their recent report, the euro shorts have been quite the spectacle, providing us with a comedy show we never knew we needed. Call-to-Action: Join the Comedy Show and Short Euro! Now that we've had our fair share of laughter, it's time to take action, my fellow traders! The hedge fund report has given us a golden opportunity to join the comedy show and potentially make some handsome profits. So, here's our call-to-action: jump on the bandwagon and consider shorting the euro! But remember, trading is no laughing matter. Do your due diligence, analyze the market, and make informed decisions. Take advantage of this hilarious situation, but also stay vigilant and manage your risks wisely. After all, laughter is great, but profits are even better! Conclusion: In a world where trading can sometimes feel like a serious affair, it's refreshing to find humor in the markets. The euro shorts, as highlighted by our hedge fund friends, have given us a reason to smile and, more importantly, take action. So, traders, buckle up, embrace the comedy, and consider joining the euro shorting extravaganza. Happy trading, and may the laughter be with you! www.hedgeweek.com
TVC:EXYShort
by bryandowningqln
Euro Still Drops After ECB's Record-High Interest Hike I must admit that the current state of affairs in the currency market has left me feeling rather disheartened. It is with a heavy heart that I share with you the recent news regarding the euro's ongoing decline, even in the face of the European Central Bank's (ECB) decision to raise interest rates to unprecedented levels. In a surprising turn of events, the euro has failed to find its footing, despite the ECB's efforts to bolster its value. The announcement of the highest interest rates on record was anticipated to provide a much-needed boost to the struggling currency. However, it appears that the market sentiment has not aligned with our expectations, leaving us in a state of perplexity and disappointment. As traders, we often rely on historical data, economic indicators, and expert opinions to guide our investment decisions. However, the current situation reminds us that the market can be unpredictable and subject to various external factors. While the ECB's decision was intended to instill confidence in the euro, it seems that other prevailing circumstances are exerting a stronger influence on its downward trajectory. In light of these developments, I would like to suggest considering a short position on the euro. Although it is disheartening to witness the currency's decline, it is crucial for us to adapt to market conditions and seize opportunities that arise from such situations. By taking a short position, we can potentially benefit from the euro's continued depreciation and mitigate potential losses. I understand that this suggestion may not align with our initial expectations or desires, but as traders, we must remain adaptable and open to alternative strategies. As the saying goes, "the market is always right," and it is our responsibility to adjust our positions accordingly. Please feel free to comment below if you would like to discuss this further or explore other potential trading opportunities. I value your expertise and would appreciate your input on the matter. www.wsj.com
TVC:EXYShort
by bryandowningqln
Euro Currency Index: The Future of the Eurozone?The Euro Currency Index is following the price action that I talked about in my last analysis. For now, not big changes when it comes to technical analysis. Technical analysis On the 30-minute chart, EXY is trading in a descending channel. This suggests that the bears are in control and that the index is likely to continue to decline in the short term. The next key support level is at 100.00, followed by 99.00. On the 4-hour chart, EXY is also trading in a descending channel. However, the channel is starting to widen, which suggests that the bears may be losing momentum. The next key support level is at 100.00, followed by 99.00. On the daily chart, EXY is trading below its 200-day moving average. This is a bearish signal, and it suggests that the index is likely to continue to decline in the medium term. The next key support level is at 100.00, followed by 99.00. Fundamental analysis The eurozone economy is facing a number of challenges in 2023. The war in Ukraine has caused energy prices to soar, which is putting a strain on businesses and consumers. Inflation is also at a multi-decade high, which is eroding household purchasing power. In addition, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to raise interest rates in the coming months, which could further weigh on economic growth. Despite these challenges, there are some positive signs for the eurozone economy. The unemployment rate is at a record low, and consumer confidence is starting to rebound. Additionally, the ECB has announced a number of measures to support the economy, such as the new Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI). I hope this post is helpful. This analysis represents my thoughts at the date it is posted. This analysis does not represent professional and/or financial advice. You alone assume the sole responsibility of evaluating the merits and risks associated with the use of any information or other content found on this profile before making any decisions based on such information.
TVC:EXYShort
by YExplore
EXY CURRENCY INDEX, Preliminary Range, These Level To Watch Now!Hello Traders Investors And Community, welcome to this analysis where we are looking at the EXY CURRENCY INDEX which is the index to show the value of the euro in comparison to other currencies where we are looking at recent events, the current formational structure and what to expect the next times in order to handle the situation accordingly and in the right manner. The index experienced a steady recovery since the corona breakdowns seen this year where it moved higher but the question now is if this strength can hold on or lower levels will be visited, in this case, I detected some important signals which we should consider now in order to upcoming price-actions. Looking at my chart you can watch there that the index has formed three consecutive uptrend lines marked in blue and as the index now approached resistance at the 118 to 119 resistance level marked in light-blue this is an important range where the index can bounce again to the downside and as the index is overbought this is not far away. When the first trendline is broken to the downside it will give a first bearish shape and the index will move on to the next trendline testing it from there the index can either stabilize and move higher again or confirm the second trendline to the downside which will show up in a greater increase of bearishness at least testing the back-up-zone marked in blue. Overall we can expect the pull-back happening as mentioned the next times and for further stabilization and continuation, it forms high importance that the index bounces at the blue level between the 23.6 and 38.2 Fibonacci-support marked in my chart, when this does not happen and the index declines more from there the next remaining supports will be tested which is the decreasing support line in orange but till then the index has some good potential to confirm further bullishness in the range. It will be highly interesting how the situation is playing out here and how far and strong the pull-back is going and if there will be a solid stabilization or further declines to follow up with. In this manner, thank you for watching, support for more market insight, all the best! "Trading effectively is about accessing possibilities, not certainties." Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the market.
TVC:EXY
by VincePrince
1
EXY (Euro Currency) Index Analysis 09/01/2022Our Past Euro Currency Index Analysis of March 2021: Elementary Analysis: The Euro Currency Index (EUR_I) represents the arithmetic ratio of four major currencies against the Euro: US Dollar, British Pound, Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc. All ratios are expressed in units of currency per Euro. The index was launched in 2004 by the exchange portal Stooq.com. Underlying are 100 points on 4 January 1971. Before the introduction of the European single currency on 1 January 1999 an exchange rate of 1 Euro = 1.95583 Deutsche mark was calculated. Based on the progression, Euro Currency Index can show the strength or weakness of the Euro. A rising index indicates an appreciation of the Euro against the currencies in the currency basket, a falling index in contrast, a devaluation. Relationships to commodity indices are recognizable. A rising Euro Currency Index means a tendency of falling commodity prices. This is especially true for agricultural commodities and the price of oil. Even the prices of precious metals (gold and silver) are correlated with the index. Arithmetically weighted Euro Currency Index is comparable to the trade-weighted Euro Effective exchange rate index of the European Central Bank (ECB). The index of ECB measures much more accurately the value of the Euro, compared to the Euro Currency Index, since the competitiveness of European goods in comparison to other countries and trading partners is included in it. The Euro Currency Index started on 4 January 1971 with 100 points. Before the introduction of the European single currency on 1 January 1999, an exchange rate of 1 Euro = 1.95583 Deutsche Mark was calculated. Fundamental Analysis: On April 19, 1971, the Euro Currency Index gained 99.67 points calculated with an all-time low. Until 3 December 1979, the index rose by 68.0 percent to 167.43 points. With the depreciation of the Deutsche Mark against the major currencies, the index fell to mid-1980s. On 3 May 1985, the Euro Currency Index was at level 122.26 points, up by 27.0 percent. The strength of the Deutsche Mark against almost all global currencies set the index in the following years to rise again. On 5 October 1992, a value of 195.98 points was determined. The increase in 1985 was 60.3 percent. On 25 October 2000, the index closed at 130.83 points, up by 33.2 percent. In 2000 began a multi-year upward movement of the Euro. On 29 December 2008, the index marked 209.65 points, an all-time high. The profit since year 2000 is 60.2 percent. In the course of the international financial crisis, from which the U.S. real estate crisis originated in the summer of 2007, the index began to decline. On 6 February 2009 a value of 187.84 points was determined. In the following eight months, the European single currency rebounded from the lows. On 13 October 2009, the index rose by 208.45 points, near its historical high point. A financial crisis in several member states of the Euro zone in 2010 led to the outbreak of the Euro crisis. Particularly affected is Greece (see Greek government-debt crisis from 2010), but also other countries such as Ireland, Spain, Italy and Portugal. The weakness of the Euro against almost all global currencies caused the index to fall from 29 June 2010 to 175.31 points. In the following months, the European Stability Mechanism was developed, which provides for mutual assistance in case of emergency to avoid the bankruptcy of the Member States. By May 4, 2011, the index rose to a level of 200.20 points. With the intensification of the sovereign debt crisis in the Euro zone, the Euro Currency Index fell 24 July 2012 with 168.38 points, its lowest level since March 29, 2006. Compared to the all-time high of 29 December 2008, this represents a decrease of 19.7 percent . as we have analyzed this Index last year on March 2021, we had Speculated that, the Euro zone will Depreciate and weaken Financially and Economically due to some known (So Called Pandemic) and unknown (censored) reasons such as Brexit etc. however we can see the market has showing some Bearish trend and started its Rally again and it shows the Index has reaccumulated and Corrected itself on a good note. there are some confluences such as the negative correlation of the Euro Index (EXY) with US Dollar Index (DXY) which shows that the DXY was Rising when the EXY was falling in our Past Analysis which are as follow: DXY: EXY: Looking at the Top Charts, we can clearly see that the Charts and their Price Action is negative correlation coefficient with each other, that means while the US Doller was getting Strong the Euro was weakening hence if we look at the current situations in US politics and Markets, which we have analyzed earlier this week along with the DXY. we can see that there are heavy Falls and calamities to come on the US economy which ultimately will result the rise of the counterparty currencies' such as Euro and GBP. For better understanding of the situation it is good to look at the DXY and its Current situation and our analysis on that: from March 2018 to March 2020 the entire Euro Zone countries where struggling and Correcting their economies as the Brexit and Its effects on the rest of the European businesses and Markets were ambiguous, we can call this fact as Market Distribution and Values correction. then we can see the Corona Pandemic which was an other nail in the Europe economic coffin and Brought the entire economic to its low point which had triggered the Risk Management Departments of the governments to Practice their Policies and release the Stimulants Packages in order to Prevent their Economies from more Drastically Falls and crisis. which worked as an excellent Market Fuel and uplift the Strength of their economies temporally but soon they realized the upcoming inflation and they stopped their Stimulant's Plans so does the market and Prices came to their inheritance intrinsic values and once again we could see the Prices has fallen back to their normal Level so does the EXY level. at present we can see the EXY is at its lows but is very ready to Reaccumulating and reneging for the next Bullish cycle. hence we can drive our conclusion that the Euro shall appreciate against the Doller and even some other low weight Index Makers. looking at the current inflation rate in US and China, Iran... we can see that soon these countries and their respected Markets shall come to an Hoult which will help out the EXY to Appreciate ultimately. we do not know exactly how much time will it take for it, but to us it is very clear that, it is the upcoming scenario for the Globalist and their respective European Parties... Technical Analysis: Tt is very well Observable that there exists a Bullish Divergence of Price and MACD from March 2015 to January 2017 which is the most significant sign of the Past Bearish Trend reversal and Start of the new Bullish Trend Post Feb 2017 to March 2018. looking at the chart from March 2020 to January 2022 we can see the price has made a Double Top followed by the Retracement to the 61.8% of Fibonacci Levels of its Bullish wave from 2020 to 2022. There exist a Hidden Bullish divergence of Price and MACD from March 2020 to January 2022, which is a very significant sign of Bullish trend Continuation where the Price is reneging and reaccumulating for its upcoming bullish cycles. There total of 3 Main Targets defined with Fibonacci trend Based Extension of the Last Bullish cycle and 2 Targets Defined with the Previous Bullish cycle. all the defined Targets are having confluences with each other so we can be certain that the Price shall show some Reaction at these points. there are 3 Support areas defined by Fibonacci retracement and Pivot areas of the past Bullish cycles where we can expect the Price to reverse its bearish trend incase of more Fall to the lower levels and creation of dipper Hidden bullish Divergence. as you can see we have used 2 Fibonacci trend base extension tools and Specified their Confluences areas as the Possible Resistance Zones. Remember the 4 TP and the Ultimate TP will gets confirmed as the price Triggers the 3 TP followed by some Market correction and Retracements.
TVC:EXYLong
by BitonGroup
6