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Risk level on Financial Markets The last few days will be crucial for the financial markets, in particular, the currency market, the bond market, and the stock market. Particularly with the large-step approach of the mid-term elections of the American president. Some believe that if Republicans manage to keep the House of Representatives and by increasingly establishing a majority, the prices of the index dollars should explode. On the other hand if the Democrats manage to steal their seats, and to reverse them the trend, the prices of the dollar index will have to fall back. I'm not a political scientist or any of his policy considerations. The polls currently on voting intentions are rather favorable to the Democrats ' camp. I present to you, a macroeconomic angle of the overall situation of financial markets by establishing a differential gap between currencies that constitute a bias of appetite for risk and a bias of risk aversion. It is, therefore a comparison between the market players who are riscophiles and those who are risk-averse. The least we can say is that currently we are in a status quo, in a neutrality because there is a lot of uncertainty in Europe with Italy and Germany, in the USA with the elections and the FED. The Turkish files are also pending as is the case of J. Khashoggi. So it's an uncertain global climate. However, since financial markets are guided by three categories of assets, such as forex, bonds, and equities, I believe that it will be wise to interpret in our own way the comparison of the overall level between the assets or Currencies symbolizing the risk and those that are used for coverage. So we observe that since 2010, faced with the restarting of the global economy especially the USA, the lure for risk has increased. This meant that the bond market and the action market were complacent, were highly demanded. So it was an appetite for risk. On the other hand before 2010, from 2007 to 2009, market participants preferred to cover themselves in the light of the inherent risk and domino that took over world finance; 11 years later we find ourselves at levels of uncertainties. Still, if we move up, the indices and bonds will be highly sought after. On the other hand, if we get out of this neutrality by breaking this slight bullish momentum that is underway, and we are going out the bottom of this range, the traditional instruments of hedging both the market of raw materials and the currency market (Yen and Gold, Swiss franc) will recover to be asked rather than be offered. This will mark the return of fear. To make the connection, you have certainly found that, through the possible overheating of the markets and the pace of rapid increase in interest rates by the FED, as well as the increase in bond yield rates, have literally made Advancing gold, from 1185 to 1235 in 2 days. Finally, in conclusion of this analysis and interpretation, it would be necessary to be neutral until one of the two sides really manifest and then adopt an appropriate strategy. For example if the camp of the riscophiles outweighs, we will all buy some clues (S&P 500, Dow, Nasdaq etc...); But if it happens that it is the side of the Risk averse who wins, then the gold will explode, the Swiss franc and the yen progress, and the bond market probably will fall due to the current levels of all the national debts of the various large spaces Economic.
TVC:EXY
by Loonics_Trading
EXY: Shaky & potential H&S pattern......as I have already written in a couple of other trades. The EUR pretends to be strong, but many problems are not solved and won´t be solved within the next months (Turkey (Why Turkey? Who do you think bought all the Turkish bonds: European Banks), Italy… etc.). ECB will likely not change the current course (QE, interest…). First Signals are turning on: EMA50 is ready to move below EMA200 (bulls are currently trying to avoid it but they failed last week, they might try it again in the forthcoming weeks). We have a stable downward trend since mid of 2017. A break-out which lasted only 6 months and which provided us this wonderful H&S pattern. Bulls&Bears will fight within the next 1-3 weeks providing us with a lot of trading opportunities especially for strong majors. This is not an investment advise this is just my personal opinion. Ride safe guys.
TVC:EXYShort
by Chimbarosa
DXY -- SHORT ARGUMENTBREAKDOWN OF THE SCREEN SHOT ABOVE ---------------------------------------------------------- DXY INDEX ( PURPLE LINE GRAPH ) AND EURO INDEX ( WHITE LINE GRAPH ) EUR AND USD ARE CLEARLY POSITIVELY CORRELATED. BOTH MIRROR IMAGES OF EACH OTHER.. ( LONG TERM WEEKLY CHART SINCE 2009 ) - THE DXY HAS GAINED GROUND WHILE THE EURO HAS STEADILY DECLINED. THIS IS OUTLINED IN BOTH THE GREEN AND RED CHANNELS DEPICTED RESPECTIVELY. WITHIN SUCH A HIGH TIME FRAME, AS WE ARE AWARE, ARE THE RUNS AND PULL BACKS WE ARE SO FAMILIAR WITH. ITS THIS THAT CAUSES FOR ME CONCERN FOR THE DXY GAINING GROUND. FROM THE CHART DISPLAYED WE SEEM TO BE AT AN AREA OF RESISTANCE NOW FOR THE DXY, EFFECTIVELY A DOUBLE TOP PATTERN AT BROKEN SUPPORT NOW RESISTANCE. I WOULD BE TARGETING THE BOTTOM OF THE CHANNEL FOR THE DXY. IF THE IDEA DOES WORK, GIVEN THE POSITIVE CORRELATION BETWEEN THE TWO CURRENCIES, AN EQUAL SIZE RUN TO THE UP SIDE SHOULD BE EVIDENT ON THE EURO. IE - A MOVE TOWARDS THE TOP OF ITS CHANNEL. I SEE ROOM FOR THE EURO TO FALL FURTHER YET, BUT UPON REACHING THE SUPPORT LEVEL, I THINK WE SEE THE BREAK DOWN IN THE USD OCCURRING AND THE MOVE LOWER. A LARGE RISK:REWARD FOR THOSE THAT LOOK FOR TRADES ON THE WEEKLY AND PLAY THEM OUT ON THE DAILY CHART. LOWER TIME FRAME TRADERS STILL HAVE TIME AND ROOM FOR MOVES TO GET LONG...BUT, I WOULD BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THE WEEKLY CHART FOR THE LARGER SENTIMENT DIRECTION, AND A CHANGE IN STRATEGY TO TRADE EURUSD. SUMMARY ----------------------- THE EASY PATH FOR THE EURO SEEMS TO BE UPWARDS, WHILE FOR THE DXY THE LEAST RESISTANCE TO MOVEMENT LOOKS TO BE DOWNWARDS.
TVC:EXYShort
by UnknownUnicorn493766