> Impact of NFP & Unemployment Rate on GBPUSD & GBPJPY
-The Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) and Unemployment Rate data are key economic indicators from the U.S. that significantly impact the U.S. dollar (USD). Since GBP/USD and GBP/JPY involve the USD, this data will influence these pairs today.
> Market Expectations
- NFP Forecast: 170K (Previous: 256K) → If actual is higher than expected, USD strengthens; if lower, USD weakens. - Unemployment Rate Forecast: 4.1% (Previous: 4.1%) → Higher unemployment weakens USD; lower strengthens it.
> Potential Scenarios & Impact on GBP/USD & GBP/JPY
- Strong NFP (Actual > 170K) & Lower Unemployment (< 4.1%) - Impact: USD strengthens → GBP/USD drops (bearish), USDJPY rises, leading to mixed impact on GBP/JPY. - GBP/USD Strategy: Look for sell opportunities near resistance (e.g., 1.2600-1.2630) targeting 1.2500 or lower. - GBP/JPY Strategy: If JPY weakens, GBP/JPY may rise; otherwise, sideways movement. Buy if it breaks key resistance levels.
- Weak NFP (Actual < 170K) & Higher Unemployment (> 4.1%) - Impact : USD weakens → GBP/USD rises, GBP/JPY bullish (as USD/JPY might also rise). - GBP/USD Strategy: Look for buy entries around 1.2540-1.2560 with a target of 1.2650-1.2680. - GBP/JPY Strategy: If USD weakens and risk sentiment is positive, GBP/JPY can rally above 189.50 towards 190+.
- Mixed Data (NFP Strong but Unemployment Rises, or Vice Versa) - Impact: Choppy, unpredictable moves. - Strategy : Wait for the first 15-30 minutes after release, watch price action, and trade confirmed breakouts rather than reacting immediately.
> Pre-News Strategy (Before 15:30 UTC) - Avoid opening major positions until after the release. Identify key support/resistance levels for potential breakouts.
> Post-News Strategy (15:30 UTC & After) - Trade the breakout: If GBP/USD breaks 1.2580 upward, buy with a target of 1.2650-1.2680. If GBP/USD drops below 1.2520, short targeting 1.2450-1.2470. For GBP/JPY, watch 188.80 support & 189.50 resistance for potential buy/sell setups.
> Volatility Consideration - NFP causes spikes → Use wider stops (e.g., 30-50 pips) & avoid tight SL to prevent whipsaws. - Ideal Entry Method: Wait for the initial move, then enter on a retracement using Fibonacci levels or Trend Analysis
> GBP/USD likely volatile: Strong NFP = bearish; weak NFP = bullish. > GBP/JPY depends on risk sentiment & USDJPY reaction. > Trade breakouts with confirmation & avoid emotional trading right at release time.
DXYJXY All the very best for your profits and lessons!