US Natural Gas (Spot) forum
NATGAS Big news.The national weather service and climate prediction center released their updated 7 day and 14 day forecasts for Jan.
Along with the new model runs, we are forecast to see "the coldest January in Decades".
Pretty much the entire East Coast will be caught in this extreme winter surge.
If we are to see my $4 forecast, this will be the time. Demand is expected to surge rapidly from Jan 1st onwards.
The forecast shows the cold to running until the end of Jan, not just for 1 or 2 weeks.
Meanwhile, the weekend Production and Export data are neutral to somewhat bearish.
Production average 105bcf.
Exports averaged 14.8bcf.
Not bad, but not the best we've seen.
Wouldn't be surprised if had a "gap and run" situation from Monday onwards.
I have been warning about this for a while.
NGAS right now waiting if Ukraine's threats to stop the passage of Russian gas in January will cause the prices of exports from the USA to EUROPE to skyrocket, or if everything remains pure BLAH BLAH BLAH and our high inventories will make the price return to $2.5 at least
NATGASUSD trying to trade this right now is like sailing a rubber dingy in an ocean storm😆NATGAS Tradingviews "minds" section can be a wild place hey 😂😂 Just reading the other minds is nutsIt's just ego battling for no reason.
Makes our little Natgas community seem like an Oasis ☕️
NATURALGAS I'm sure my last post on the bracketed strategy was ignored as it lacked the keyword Robpoll, but it worked well.
NATGAS was waiting for the bears to come out and declare victory and abuse robpoll again so I knew to buy, but I didn't see any ☹️NATURALGAS Any 11am ET close below 3363 would be a short entry with this experimental bracketed-price strategy. Sometimes the dumbed down strategies work best.
NATGAS Kinda bearish leaning report, but nothing crazy.The Market will just look past it mostly, as the next 8 or 9 are expected to be very bullish, except 1, in 2 weeks time.
It's friday, it's low volume, it's holiday season, not expecting much.
NATURALGAS NG is preparing to go down again...close your longs folks...NATGAS Appreciate all of you, as usual, your support is overwhelming.Really really Long post, sorry.
My thoughts are a few for yesterday's correction.
1) Profit taking overdue
2) Low volume, retail and algos swinging the price.
3) We needed to price is today's report, which is expected to be decently bearish.
Fundamentally, nothing changed.
If you can think back to the Summer run we had in natgas, we'd swing -5% at open and finish the day up 6%. It's all pretty normal for natgas during high demand bull runs, to get sudden and unforeseen snap backs.
Today's Production and exports aren't anything great, they're slightly neutral.
Production: 104.8bcf
Export: 14.8bcf
Demand total including exports 120bcf
Unless we miss very bearishly on this report, I don't expect much downside still.
As if said many times, I think Mid Janurary will prove to be the best time to load up on shorts.
That said,I don't expect us to break below $3 on my pepperstone chart, if we do, it won't be for very long.
To me, the market is looking past the next 2 weeks reports and is looking to the extremely strong expected demand in January.
As I've mentioned a few times, Europe's gas reverse are draining a lot quicker than expected, it'll leave them with even less compared to the year 5 average.
The US is also expected to end winter with around 1700bcf in reserve, which is quite substantially low compared to the 5 year average.
Next year is expected to be a high demand year, which will likely make loading the reserves much hard, and thus, price will likely find support and range between $3 to $4 moving forward.
A lot of people don't understand that the natgas environment has fundamentally shifted, and so, our expectations should be shifting too if we want to make money.