Natural Gas (XNGUSD) forum
NATGAS Yeeaahhh! long when uptrend, short when downtrend. 🎢
NATURALGAS possible retest of the broken support near 4.09 and then further downtrend continuation. Good luck everyone!
NATGAS We take a short at market open with target 4
XAUUSD 
SILVER 
OIL NATGAS 
COPPERMarket Flow Update:
• Crude Oil: Neutral. Institutions are neither aggressively buying nor selling. ETF outflows offset bullish option sentiment. Inventory data will determine the next move.
• Gold: Leaning Bullish. Strong long interest and supportive macro, but ETF outflows temper enthusiasm. Confirmation needed from resumed inflows.
• Natural Gas: Neutral, highly volatile. Bearish structural data vs. bullish short squeeze potential. Market remains in equilibrium, awaiting the next catalyst.
• Copper: Bullish. Strong institutional accumulation with no contradictions. China’s PMI next week is key for validation.
• Silver: Moderately Bullish. ETF inflows indicate accumulation, but futures positioning lags. If funds add longs, outlook strengthens.
NATGAS Natural Gas has transitioned into a bullish structure on higher timeframes following the prolonged 2022 downtrend. U.S. gas storage remains slightly below the five-year average, while European inventories are stable due to strong LNG inflows. Hedge funds continue to hold net short positions despite significant price appreciation, creating the potential for a short squeeze or renewed selling pressure.
Technically, Natural Gas maintains a clear uptrend on the weekly chart, trading above key moving averages and the Ichimoku Cloud. However, short-term consolidation near the 4.50–4.57 resistance zone suggests either a continuation higher or a corrective pullback.
Key Market Dynamics:
• Bullish Factors: Established uptrend, strong technical positioning, potential for short covering.
• Bearish Risks: Persistent hedge fund shorts, mild European winter reducing demand, key resistance overhead.
2. Macro & Market Sentiment
• U.S. Storage: Below the five-year average, supporting price strength.
• European Supply: Higher-than-normal inventories mitigate extreme price spikes.
• Positioning: Hedge funds remain net short despite price recovery, indicating skepticism about sustained upside.
• Market Risk: If shorts unwind, the rally may accelerate. If bearish catalysts emerge, a pullback could develop.
3. Key Technical Levels
Support Levels:
• 4.13–4.15: Short-term pivot.
• 4.00–4.10: Key daily support.
• 3.60–3.70: Strong volume cluster.
• 3.00–3.30: Major long-term support.
Resistance Levels:
• 4.50–4.57: Key supply zone; break above could target higher levels.
• 5.00: Psychological and Fibonacci extension target.
4. Trade Scenarios
Bullish Continuation:
• Aggressive: Buy dips near 4.13–4.15 with stops below 4.00, targeting 4.50–4.57.
• Moderate: Enter above 4.20–4.25 on confirmed momentum.
• Conservative: Wait for a daily close above 4.50 before entering long positions.
Bearish Reversal:
• Aggressive: Short a rejection at 4.50–4.57 or breakdown below 4.13, targeting 4.00.
• Moderate: Enter on a 4H close below 4.13, confirming downside momentum.
• Conservative: Short only if a daily close occurs below 4.00.
A decisive break above 4.50 confirms bullish continuation, while a close below 4.00 weakens the trend.
5. Risk Management
• Volatility Considerations: Weekly ATR ~0.44, daily ATR ~0.25. Adjust stops and position sizing accordingly.
• Key Market Events: Weekly EIA storage reports, LNG supply disruptions, and unexpected weather shifts can drive volatility.
• Conflict Risk: Heavy short positioning versus rising price action suggests an unstable equilibrium.
6. Conclusion
The broader uptrend in Natural Gas remains intact, but short-term consolidation near 4.50–4.57 requires confirmation before the next move. A sustained hold above 4.00–4.10 favors continued upside, while failure to hold these levels opens the door for a pullback toward 3.70–3.60. Traders should watch for volume confirmations and maintain disciplined risk management.
NATGAS I expect a big gap down, as all weather models have turned warmer (-30 up to-40 HDD) over the weekend.
NATGAS Look at the following days och see how warm its gone bee next week. All extreme cold degrees is gone. The pump of last 2 weeks was because extreme cold weather. Now it turns to extreme warm weather conditions. I have shorted NATGAS.
NATGAS Gap down, I'm guessing 5% to 7%.Models have all turned significantly warmer.
Production is already recovering as the rigs are starting back-up / unfreezing.
April contract rolls off on Wednesday over to April.
Mid march and April are looking very comfortable.
Projections are showing injections coming 2 weeks earlier vs the 5 year average.
After this week's extremely bullish EIA report, it's all down hill from here.
Lots of production set to come online in the next 3 weeks. Probably looking at 108 to 110 on production.
Don't forget, for the noobs calling for an April or May rise. The export terminals will begin shutting down soon for maintenance, that'll leave a big hole for about 4 weeks.
NATURALGAS Likely massive gap up based on exports demand and global demand. Up trend atleat till end of April with corrections to enter long.
NGAS so ..next week the first 2-3 days the weather is going to be warmer with a drop at the end of the week and first week of march . after that looks like it is going up slowly. tomorrow's opening could be a sharp up for SL sweep and then go down or a gap down. both scenarios can happen but the trend looks like is down.